CRYPTO TREYSI

📉 The Big Short ⠀ Friends, many do not understand how the current, excessive positivity in the markets will end; why the AI bubble and tech stocks are inflating; when it will be possible to start exiting Bitcoin, and so on. 🔤 Let's start from afar and take a look at the US macroeconomy and the Fed's monetary policy actions. After all, macroeconomics is the first step in the hierarchy that determines the global direction of trends in the markets. The Fed's restrained policy cycle has been going on for more than two years. This is taking a significant toll on banking and many other sectors, and thus on global economic growth. But, for the sake of reducing inflation and preserving the purchasing power of the dollar, the restraint policy is still being implemented. At the same time, the necessary inflation targets of 2%-2.1% have not yet been achieved. 💵 After all, in 2020-21, a record amount of money was printed and injected into the economy. And more and more money has to be printed. Inflation, against this backdrop, is getting harder and harder to contain. Therefore, the Fed and those responsible for the stability of the dollar have to resort to unconventional solutions. And right now, they're trying to get out of that trap. If they start lowering the key rate, injecting money into the economy without easing inflation, they will get hyperinflation of 10-15% in the next cycle, as it was 50 years ago. That is a smooth depreciation of the USD. 🔎 Why all these complicated words? It's very simple. Let me give you a simple example. You have $100,000... and instead of buying a new car, you, seeing a great opportunity to earn money, carry this money into BTC. Naturally, you buy it at prices 50% more expensive than you could have done it half a year ago. And, you wait... Meanwhile, Powell is jubilant, because your money is no longer in the economy, but in a bubble... (the load on the economy is reduced). And obviously, in a situation where it's time to pump new money into the economy to keep key industries from dying, you won't be allowed to get your money out with BTC at, say, $200,000. Why? So that you don't go and trigger the already double demand for autos. That's why they're putting you in there. ❕ The topic of the post is not a simple one. Do you understand this post or should I explain it again? 🔥 - It's clear 🧐 - I don't get it CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

A new crypto narrative is coming 💡 Friends, recently Arthur Hayes (co-founder and former director of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX) wrote a new essay called "Chief Story Officer".And the interesting thing is that his vector of thoughts in some points coincides with mine. So I decided to share the main theses with you: 📒 The current market shows that project technology is not so important. What is important is the story or "project legend". The simpler the legend is - the more viral it is. Pay attention to this. A large number of traders are moving from centralized exchanges (Binance, Bybit) to decentralized exchanges (UniSwap, PancakeSwap) and this is a fact. It follows that DEX platforms as well as their tokens will be in high demand. And that means - a new narrative is coming. ❕ He also highlighted a list of projects, let's call this narrative "DEX tokens", that he favors - dYdX, GMX, Pendle, Krav, Elixir, Flare, Ethena and Axelar. Personally, I already have dYdX, GMX and Axelar tokens in my portfolio. I believe they can show good growth in a bull market. 📍Not a financial recommendation. It's just my opinion. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Bitcoin creator's identity discovered 🔐 I see you enjoyed yesterday's post. So I decided to make another post in the topic of "Conspiracy Theory". 💡There are various rumors about who Satoshi Nakamoto is and who he really is (he is the mythical creator of Bitcoin). Many are convinced it's Ilon Musk, and some believe that the US government is running the entire crypto. Theories abound. However, there is something interesting about one of them. • It is believed that programmer and cryptographer Hal Finney was the first to get Bitcoin from Satoshi. In 2021, a Bloomberg analyst was going through Finney's messages and discovered something startling. In 1993, the cryptographer actually described the concept of NFT. So the idea he proposed 30 years ago has now become a market worth over $7 billion dollars? It turns out Finney was definitely one of the pioneers of crypto. 📋 And a couple days ago, crypto-enthusiasts provided new proof: the name "Satoshi Nakamoto" translated into Japanese characters looks similar to the name Hal Finney. But was Hal the creator? Hal Finney himself always denied these suspicions until his death in 2014. His quote:

I was only communicating with Nakamoto and giving him advice.

❕ Maybe Satoshi Nakamoto died with him? We don't know. But we really hope Satoshi is hiding in the Japanese islands, full of ideas on how to change the world for the better. Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto really exists? 🔥 - Yes 🧐 - No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

How much does it cost to hack Bitcoin? 💰 Today I decided to write one interesting post for you, in which we find out what "Attack 51" is and why it can be used to hack entire blockchains. And how much it costs to hack the most important blockchain - Bitcoin. 📝 "Attack 51" is a PoW blockchain vulnerability by which an attacker takes control of transaction confirmation and block generation. This means that with 51% of the network's power, you can: • Collect all block rewards and commissions. • Not give transactions or blocks confirmation. • You will be able to shrink and manipulate the network • Steal coins that are not signed by the main block. • Delete contracts or transaction history. 💸 So how much does it cost to hack Bitcoin in 2024? The first conclusion is that there are no profitable ways to accomplish this. This negates the financial incentive of 51% attacks on the blockchains of the two largest cryptocurrencies. Even in the most lucrative scenario, an attacker could potentially make $1 billion, but after spending $40 billion. The risk is simply not justified. 🟠Also, let's fantasize and imagine that the government attacks Bitcoin in an effort to destroy it (we all know how they feel about cryptocurrency). In that case, the bitcoin would require the purchase of 7 million ASIC miners at a cost of about $20 billion. And the funny thing is that there is simply no such amount of equipment on the market. But if someone is going to produce their own equipment for this purpose, the cost will be a similar amount. So, can we sleep easy?! 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

BTC Review | Going Higher? 💰 Friends, hello everyone. I'm doing a review of the situation with BTC for you. There are a lot of different talks on the market. I decided to express my opinion. 📑 Bitcoin still continues to accumulate energy, buying out all local drops. A few hours ago the price fell a bit again. Now we should keep an eye on it. If we go back to $42.500 again, there is a high probability that the up-trend movement will continue. Personally, my team and I are NOT planning to enter a long trade at the moment. Why? • The market is very unpredictable now. Earlier we expected a fall, but it did not happen. The market has been going up for a long time without any drops. That's very suspicious. 📍If you will open a long position, I advise you to enter with a short stop-loss. Short-squeeze can happen at any moment, so it is desirable to move with short and clear trades (NOT scalping). CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Overview of tier-1 fund - Coinbase Ventures 📦 Friends, we are continuing our "learning about a fund from the inside" column. Today let's take a look at another venture capital fund that is one of the record-breakers in terms of the number of investments in different projects. ⚫️Coinbase Ventures is a Tier-1 fund that is the venture capital arm of the Coinbase exchange. The VC investments are spread across the following sectors: • Blockchain Service (27.3%) • DeFi (25.7%) • CeFi (13%) • Chain (8.1%) • NFT (6.8%) • Social (5.7%) • Blockchain Infrastructure (5.5%) • GameFi (4.4%) • Stablecoin (1.8%) • Other (1.3%) • Currency (0.5%) The fund was formed in April 2018. The funders are 2 partners, Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. The more interesting personality of the two is Fred. He has a very good track record: • Trader at Goldman Sachs; • co-founder / Board of Directors at Coinbase; • co-founder of Paradigm fund (top 1 fund). 🥅 The VC has raised a total of only $15 million in assets from investors. However, there is also an info that the fund has raised an additional $300 million in May 2022. It is worth noting that Coinbase Ventures is one of the most dynamically investing funds. For example, it made ~150 investments in 2022, with over 70 of them in Q1 alone. In comparison, a16z crypto put in 60 projects in the same year. 📍Cumulatively, CV has participated in 353 fundraising rounds and has held the Lead Investor position in just 22 of them. Exemplary investments include: Aptos, LayerZero, Goldfinch, Lido Finance, zkSync and others. Given their "selectivity", getting into the gem is not that difficult. Put 🔥 if this post was helpful to you... CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

The market hints at a fall 🐸 Friends, decided to make for you a detailed report (my opinion) on the market at the moment. The thoughts are quite interesting. 📔 Everything looks more than good. I don't know if you guys are getting into euphoria right now, but I personally am not + not really noticing it much in the market. I only have 2 fears at the moment. It's the fundamental backdrop + the risk of "squeezes" for futures traders. • Fundamental background: BTC advertisement almost from every major financial giant; SNN keeps promoting BTC; Satoshi Nakamoto flag over the Capitol; there are experts with price forecasts from 100k to a million. There are a lot of events. It is all these factors that lead to some doubts. It looks like crypto is being specifically promoted to shave hamsters. I am used to such fundamental market behavior, as a rule, taking place at the moment of maximum points. Probably, if we had been in the bull market for about 1.5 years and the ATH was updated, then in such a situation I would simply start selling all assets. But, now is a slightly different phase. The second point. Funding. We already wrote about it yesterday. There's nothing scary about it. But we will probably see sharp movements in BTC. 📍Result: The first point is really confusing, but since I look at the market more globally, I am confident in the reassessment of the market and in the growth of its capitalization. Therefore, globally, I am not confused by the hype in the market for several reasons: 1) I didn't buy at the peak 2) I partially fix my transaction 3) the goals for my long-term portfolio are higher 4) I have enough free stablecoins for possible corrections. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Most people are in profit 📦 Friends, found an interesting infographic today. Let me decipher right away: almost all people are in plus on BTC right now. Only 13% of people have a minus position. This has only happened in a bull market in 2021. 🔤 My view on the market: Recently, altcoin capitalization (no stablecoins or BTC) has done a retest of consolidation and a local peak point update. This can be seen by the rising altcoins gradually catching up with the movement of BTC, which rose to $52,800. At this point, my team and I have placed a number of orders to open a short position. At $53,000, $55,000 and $58,000. As you can see, we're waiting for the price to fall. 📍 But do not forget about the increased fanding and as a consequence possible sharp price movements. I do not recommend trading on futures now, if you have no experience, because with such volatility you are likely to lose money. ❔ What is your opinion on the market for the coming week? 🔥 - Flying to 56k 🐳 - Falling to 48k CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Keith accumulates API3 🐋 Friends, I was planning to make a post for you today about another purchase of "smart wallet", but it turned out that after its purchase token almost immediately began to grow. But I still decided to make a post to show you clearly. 📈 Today a large address started to re-buy API3 coin. This time he purchased it for $1.17 million. Last time he purchased this coin at $1.6, after that he sold it at $2.6. The spot win rate of this address is about 74%, which shows us his high level of skill in buying coins at the lows and then selling them at higher values. ❕ Personally, I managed to buy some API3 and will sell it soon, as after buying this wallet the token went up sharply. I do not recommend buying it now. Only if the price rolls back to the previous values again. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Crowd psychology in crypto 🗳 Friends, remember one important thing: the crowd always loses and in the crypto market this rule also works. But, we can capitalize on it. 🔎 People buy token because they believe in the price growth. The reasons for this belief can be different (growing performance and demand, product, catalysts), and the simpler they are, the better - new liquidity comes from unsophisticated investors. Examples of simple narratives are AI, RWA or GameFi. The average cryptocurrency user has a shorter attention span than an experienced player. A good product is important, but the price won't go up if the protocol isn't familiar with the dark art of marketing. Look for projects that understand this. That's where the large influx of liquidity from the crowd will go. • Liquidity inflow -> asset price growth -> profit. 📦 But why does the crowd always lose money? It's simple: they don't know how to lock in profits. After getting +50% to their investment, they will wait for another +100%, but an asset cannot grow forever. In the end, the asset falls and the crowd just keeps sitting with losses. It is important to be able to lock in profits in time. ❔ Do you understand how to properly capture profits from a position? 🔥 - Yes 🐳 - No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💡 How to choose the right projects from the narrative? Continuing with yesterday's topic. You've put up some lights and I can see your interest. Let's go. 📦 What do you need to do to choose the right narrative? Let me explain: a narrative is a particular sector whose projects are starting to gain momentum and grow in value at the same time. There is a simple formula for choosing the right narrative: combine alpha and beta bets for each narrative. • The alpha bet is to buy the leading project (LDO in LSD, TAO in AI, etc.). History shows that most investors get more returns if they stick to alpha projects rather than constantly jumping betas. Attention always flows to the market leader, and it's difficult to make the best choice among dozens of beta options. • Beta bets involve higher risk and return. Since you've already made an alpha bet, the beta should be different from it: for example, being on a different network or having a different value proposition. But also important - don't get hung up on narratives and projects. ❕ Bull markets are driven by attention. Your goal is to find the biggest waves of hype and ride them. That said, as soon as a wave subsides, jump on another one. You can tell when a narrative is about to die by metrics (TVL, transactions, and users are declining) and general mood - when even the project's fanboys go silent, it's a bad sign (ideally, don't get to this stage). 📍 Keep in mind that if a project has money and an experienced team, it can fit into multiple waves at once as it develops. 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

How to get through a bull market without FOMO🐸 For all newbies, this post will be extremely helpful. The bull market is getting closer and closer, but many don't even have a clue how and what to do. Today I will write some basic rules that every beginner should keep in mind. 🔤 Approach to portfolio building: Long-term investments + stablecoins + high-risk narrative positions. Allocation of shares depends on your risk tolerance and goals. Profits from narrative trades are transferred either into stables or build up long-term positions (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB and further on according to your preference). When selecting narratives, focus on only 2-3 - the depth of your immersion is more important than breadth of coverage. That said, the set of "hot" narratives may change within a cycle. 📥 How do I choose a narrative? Here's what to look for: 1. Personal thesis - what are your personal beliefs about cryptocurrencies? Which ones are you most certain about? 2. Strengths - focus on what you are strong in and what you enjoy exploring. 3. Time frame - is it relevant now or does it have the potential to take off in the future? And I'll write about how to choose the right projects within the narrative in a future post. ❔ Shall we continue? 🔥 - Yes 🐳 - No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

How do announcements affect the price of tokens? 🔍 Friends, today I'm going to touch upon one of my favorite topics - working with news and analysis. 📔Many people don't know, but if you periodically follow the Twitter (X) of projects, you can make good money on it. It's all because when some big announcement (news) comes out, the price of the project token goes up. By the way, keep in mind that the same works in the opposite direction. There is always a risk. So, let's look at a recent example: On February 5, HyperGPT announces a partnership with Microsoft, after which the token showed a growth of +25%. 💡 By the way, on January 30, I made a post in which I talked about this project and the purchase of their token. Everything worked out perfectly. Since the post, the token has maximally grown by +61%. And at the moment it is +37%. Now there are already announcements of listings on other exchanges. I'm not sure that it will be a Tier-1 project, but the inflow of new liquidity is always nice. So far the token is available only on MEX and several DEX-exchanges. By the way, since the last post, the capitalization of HGPT has increased from 2 to 5.5 million, which is still insufficient, and thanks to this price you can easily pump. Anyway, you got it, analyzing the twitter of projects can be very useful, so take it for yourself. 📍This is not an advertisement of the project. Nobody paid me. This is just an example. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

BTC Overview | time to sell 💰 Friends, hello everyone. Yesterday and today the market is behaving very dynamically, that's why I'm doing an up-to-date review on BTC and ETH for you. I will be brief. 🔤 Here are the key points: The price broke through the 44.000-44.400 zone on impulse, so we focus our attention on the $46.000 zone on BTC. It is from this point that I expect a seller reaction and a move to $41,000. All in all - we will be falling soon. View on Ethrereum (ETH): Finding a short position remains a priority option for me. That said, I did not open positions at current values because there are still no systemic entry prerequisites. They are not formed. We have to wait for the appearance of a local level. 🟠Actual boundaries in which the price will move in the near future: • BTC: $41750 - 45630 • ETH: $2240 - 2500 📍 If to summarize my thoughts in one sentence: I don't look for buying on the market, I look for shorts. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Watching smart wallets - LINK 🪙 Friends, hello everyone. Today we continue our column on tracking smart whale wallets. This time we have the LINK token on our radar. 💵 Yesterday, more than 40 recently created addresses, which apparently belong to one large whale, bought for 2 days token LINK for the amount of $42 million. All addresses were created at approximately the same time. The amounts of purchases do not differ much, which indicates a single holder of all wallets. Also, in recent days, I notice mass accumulation of this coin among large wallets, the last time I saw this at $13.5-$15, after which they received the expected growth. At the moment the situation is similar, which tells us about the repeated bull run, which is clearly not far off. • In addition, today we found a wallet that has bought $3.5 million worth of LINK over the last 3 days, with the last purchase being made this morning for $1.7 million. ❕ I have been buying this token in my personal portfolio for a while now. But this is not a financial recommendation. I'm just showing you how our team chooses tokens to invest in. It's a lot of work. Put 🐳 if this is your favorite column CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Will there be an alt season? (addendum)💡 Decided to write an additional post for you, as an interesting thought came to me yesterday. ↗️ For two weeks now, the market has been in a rent-seeking mode. Everyone is in wait-and-see mode. From experienced guys on the market I see more fear now, with thoughts that it all may go down sharply. From the guys who are far from the market, I see a desire to buy new tokens. 🔽Does this point confuse me? Yes, of course. It would seem logical to see a decline, as guys with experience feel the market better, while "hamsters", as it happens most often, try to "get into the last carriage". But, there are phases in the market when market "naivety" wins. When to actually start "market buy" at the highest point, or not to fix 10x to the price of the asset you bought is smart. This usually happens during bull market moments. 📍So, now I think we are in a situation where we can check whether the market is actually in a bull market or just its echoes. To see if naivety or experience wins. We're waiting...😀 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

What is the alt-season and why do we need it?! 🪙 Friends, recently some news resources started to write more about the soon fall of BTC and therefore the topic of the alt-season started to be discussed in the network. So I decided to make an explanatory post: who, what and when. 📑 Altseason (in simple words) is the time when altcoins start to grow sharply. At the same time BTC does not make sharp movements, most often it even falls. Mostly this time comes because of the transition of money from BTC to other crypto assets. ⚫️The usual psychology is at work here. People begin to feel the approach of the bull market. So those who had money in BTC start to move it to more "promising" (cheap) tokens. And those who are just entering the market also start buying altcoins, as they feel that BTC is already worth too much (as a rule, before the alt season, BTC rises sharply after stagnating, as it is now). Some alts have already started firing, so I advise you not to hesitate. 💡"When is this season coming?". My vision: in the near future BTC may approach the 45k-46k mark and after that a correction will come. And it is after that that we may see a strong alt season. (I wrote my opinion in more detail in this post). CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

How will the market fall? 📉 Friends, there has been a lot of talk lately in the cryptocurrency community about a market correction before the bull market starts. So I decided to spell out for you personally my opinion on a possible market decline. 📊 In December, the markets were extremely optimistic on expectations from the Fed. There was a strong belief that the rate would be lowered as early as March, and on that optimism the markets closed the year's results pretty well. But yesterday the Fed said (there was a meeting) that it was too early to rejoice. So in a moment the markets got down and stopped. In addition, there are now increased risks in American regional banks. Here I see the likelihood of a repeat of the March 2023 scenario: a small local storm in the markets and a "horror-collapse" mood, after which the Fed comes out and saves everyone (gives additional money). It won't happen immediately and not this month, but when it does, somewhere around here you should start buying tokens for your portfolio. ❕ The market needs hope for money to grow. Looking forward to the next 2-3 months (until April-May), I don't see any prerequisites to get a significant inflow of liquidity. Therefore, I am in no hurry to gain long-term positions at current prices. 📍My strategy at the moment: I will increase the share of assets (tokens) after BTC goes below 40k. The range of 44.500-46.000 on BTC is my priority for sales. This is where I will be looking for a point to enter short. Are you expecting a drop before the start of a bull market? 🔥 - Yes 🐳 - No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Overview of tier-1 fund - Animoca Brands 📦 If you actively follow the fundraising market, you know that one of the fastest growing sectors for investors in the last quarter of '23 was GameFi. That's why today in our "learning the fund from the inside" column we're going to break down one of the key VC players in this area. ⚫️Animoca Brands is a Tier-1 fund focused on investing in GameFi / P2E and NFT projects. VC investments are spread across the following sectors: • GameFi (47.3%) • NFT (19.3%) • Blockchain Service (10.2%) • DeFi (8.7%) • Social (6.3%) • CeFi (3%) • Chain (2.1%) • Blockchain Infrastructure (1.8%) • Other (1.2%) The fund was founded in January 2014. The funder is Yat Siu. One of the most experienced people in crypto. I advise you to follow his X. 🥅 In total, the fund has raised $856 million in assets from the fund. At its peak in mid-2021, the company's valuation was ~$6 billion. In the same 21 year period, the company managed to earn a record $670 million. The underlying revenue was a $530 million increase in the fund's investments. The remaining $140 million profit came from subsidiary projects. Not many people know, but Animoca Brands owns many projects, some of which are The Sandbox, Blowfish Studios, Quidd, GAMEE, nWay, Pixowl and others. 📍Cumulatively, the fund has participated in 293 fundraising rounds, in 117 of which it has held the Lead Investor position. Among the tier-1 projects in its portfolio are: Axie Infinity, OpenSea, Dapper Labs, Yield Guild Games. Put 🔥 if this post was helpful to you... CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Whales are getting into ONDO 🐋 Thought I'd do another post for you guys about buying smart wallets, since you guys really like this section. 🔎 Yesterday morning, 9 whale addresses purchased ONDO coin for a total of $11.8 million. And also, on January 22, one of the major market players with a capital of more than $50 million purchased this coin for $1.38 million. As you can see, large purchases of ONDO among whales are only increasing, so it is worth paying special attention to this coin. Personally, I have made such a conclusion for me. At the moment, I have not bought this token. I am waiting for a better price. Now the price of the token is $0.21, and for me a good price for buying it is below $2. At $1.9 I will actively buy. 📍I also want to make a clarification: the point of this approach to analysis is not that whale purchases pampers the price, but that most often coins that buy whale addresses show good growth impulses after some time. ❕ Such rubrics I have not seen anyone else. You can say that this is unique content. So let's put the maximum number of 🔥 on such posts. CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe