Alex Friedman | Crypto Future

US CPI in 1 hour at 08:30 AM ET This is the main macro catalyst of the week and it will set the tone for rates, the dollar, and risk assets. Expected: 3.1% 🔽 If CPI prints above 3.1%, inflation looks sticky, rate cuts get pushed out, and risk assets may face pressure. 🔼 If CPI prints below 3.1%, disinflation gains momentum, cuts get priced in faster, and risk usually reacts positively. A print near expectations likely keeps markets in the current range until the next macro trigger.

🇺🇸 US CPI and Core CPI data will be released today at 8:30 AM ET Get ready for more volatile conditions 👀

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BREAKING: President Trump announces a "warrior dividend" which is a $1,776 stimulus check sent to 1,450,000 US soldiers. "The checks are already on the way," Trump says.🔥🔥

Everything is extremely oversold, and the F&G index has been in extreme fear for days. A strong bounce is just a matter of time. Be patient.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸US Treasury has just bought back $3,714,000,000 of its own debt.

President Trump says the current financial system is outdated and will soon be replaced with a state-of-the-art cryptocurrency framework under the New Structure Bill. The entire financial system could go on-chain, powered by crypto!

Bitfinex BTC longs have reached their highest level since Q1 2024. Whales are positioning for an explosive #BTC move. Last time it went this high , whales started to close their longs and btc went parabolic. 👀

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#BTC just flashed another golden cross 🚀🚀 4 signals. 4 explosive pumps. Now the 5th is here… and no one believes it. The crowd is quiet. But the signal is loud. Breakout odds? Highest they’ve been in weeks.👀

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The 4 year cycle is a lie. What drives financial markets goes so much deeper than just a certain time window. And here, today, I've provided cold hard data that proves this view is false and should not be blindly upheld. I welcome anyone to debate me on this topic, but you must come with data and not "but bro it topped at the same time as last time and then dropped 75%"... that is the literal point I am arguing against. Bitcoin does not have a code written into it that says it has to follow a strict 4 year price process. It has the halving, but at this stage in the networks life this has become far less impactful. Here are the main reasons the 4 year cycle is dogmatic and cannot be used as gospel. 1. There has actually only been two 4 year cycles. 2011 and 2013 were two cycles with two tops. And this was driven by liquidity, we can see it clearly when we observe the central bank balance sheet. 2. The business cycle is the main driver behind Bitcoins momentum and it is no coincidence that this is the longest contraction in the business cycle, and the weakest bitcoin cycle so far ever. You can see it easily when you cross reference with PMI. 3. We are currently in a much more similar position to 2019 than end of bull market, and again, this is due to liquidity. Check ETH/BTC, BTC.D, TOTAL3/BTC etc. All of these charts paint the picture of the overall market position which is utterly uncomparable to and end of cycle position. You cannot just observe BTC and use a 4 year number. 4. This "cycle" we had a new ATH before the halving and for the first time ever, the final year of the 4 year cycle, this year, is currently a red year. The final year has always been the parabolic year. 5. There was no true expansion this cycle. Bitcoin never entered overbought on the 1M and the 2W Bollinger bands never extended, for the first time ever. This shows us beyond doubt there was no true end of cycle movement. 6. Zero topping signals fired. This can be ignored by itself, but when combined with all other points it is notable. 7. Every other cycle has topped out when liquidity has topped out before contraction. Right now, we have just entered a new liquidity cycle. 8. This is the first time Bitcoin has achieved such price appreciation in a liquidity contracting environment, and this is due to AI and ETFs. It's also the reason we have not entered the parabolic phase as there has not been the liquidity to support it, like every other run. Im probably forgetting some, but there is insane amounts of evidence that the 4 year cycle as people know it is a view that should be held onto. There are far more greater things at play that have been driving the Bitcoin cycles, and choosing not to observe them and go deeper into analysis is folly. There are of course cycles, but they are financial cycles, and the data makes it very clear what is actually driving it.👀

Wow, something rare has happened: When Totalmarketcap touches the (W) EMA90, this alone has often led to a reversal in the past. It gets even better when (W) EMA90 is touched + the StockTKD is below 20. This combination is very rare and usually marks the bottom 👀

Volume on Coinbase for Institutional Buying has gone absolutely vertical. Probably something.👀

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent says individuals may receive $1,000–$2,000 tax refunds in Q1 2026. 🔥🔥This could be the trigger event we are waiting for 👀

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