Trade Watcher

🧠 Stoic principles every trader should internalize Stoicism is not about suppressing emotion. It is about controlling reaction. That is why it fits trading better than almost any modern “mindset” framework. Here are the core Stoic ideas that matter most in markets. ✅ Focus on what you can control Price, news, and outcomes are outside your control. Execution, risk, and discipline are not. Wasting energy on anything else degrades decision quality. ✅ Emotion gives away control If price action makes you angry, fearful, or euphoric, it is already controlling you. The more emotional the reaction, the harder it becomes to follow a plan. ✅ Assume you know nothing Markets punish certainty. The moment a trader believes they know what will happen next, bias creeps in and flexibility disappears. ✅ Opinions are not facts News, forecasts, and targets are perspectives, not truths. Price is the only reality that matters. ✅ You do not need an opinion There is no obligation to trade, comment, or react. Capital and attention are limited resources. Preserve both. ✅ Difficulty does not mean impossibility Most people fail at trading for the same reason they fail elsewhere. They stop doing the work before results compound. ✅ Stay in the present Regret over missed trades and anxiety about future ones both corrupt execution. Trades are executed now, not in hindsight. ✅ Preparation creates luck Opportunities only matter if you are positioned to act on them correctly. ✅ Quality beats quantity Good traders wait. No signal means no trade. Activity is not progress.

Stoicism teaches acceptance of reality and disciplined action without emotional distortion. That mindset does not guarantee profits, but without it, consistency is impossible.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: Nike's stock ($NKE) has fallen 10%, setting the stage for its biggest daily drop since April 2025, amid a significant decline in sales in China. @trading

📊 Congress beats the market and it’s not by luck Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio returned about 950% from 2012–2024, far ahead of Warren Buffett’s 445% and the S&P 500’s 439%. The issue is not execution. It is access. Members of Congress receive nonpublic, market-moving information through classified briefings and closed-door negotiations that directly affect which companies win or lose. Research from Columbia University shows a clear pattern: lawmakers underperformed before gaining power, then began outperforming sharply once they reached leadership roles. Congressional leaders beat regular members by up to 47% per year, and their stock sales often precede regulatory actions. This creates an obvious conflict of interest. Policy decisions and personal portfolios should not overlap. Enforcement is weak. The 2012 STOCK Act carries fines as low as $200. That is why in September 2025, lawmakers introduced the Restore Trust in Congress Act, which would ban members, their spouses, and dependent children from trading individual stocks. Support stands above 86% across parties. This will not fix Congress. But it removes one clear advantage where insider access beats public service. ✅ @trading

❓ What just happened with US inflation Core CPI in the US unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021. This came as a surprise, with markets expecting inflation to rise. At first glance, this is one of the strongest inflation reports in years. Both headline and core CPI dropped by 40 bps YoY, among the largest declines since 2023, and against expectations. ❗️ Why the print looks so dramatic A key detail sits in last month’s data. The October CPI report was effectively cancelled due to the government shutdown. Because data collection was disrupted, the BLS had to rely heavily on assumptions. One major assumption was shelter inflation, which was set at 0% for October. As a result, shelter inflation just recorded its largest 2-month net decline since the pandemic. This could be real. Housing has been cooling. Shelter has also been the biggest driver of inflation over recent years. The new data aligns more closely with third-party inflation trackers and the broader disinflation trend since 2023. ⚡️ Energy adds more pressure Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since February 2021, down about $25 per barrel since inauguration day. Lower energy prices are reinforcing the disinflation narrative. 🕯 What this means for the Fed If this trend holds, the Fed’s focus can shift fully to the labor market. Unemployment is now 4.6%, the highest since 2021. Markets reacted fast. Rate cut expectations jumped, with a 28% probability of a 25 bp cut at the January 28 meeting. Still, the base case remains no change at about 70%, as investors want confirmation from future data. ✅ The reality check This is disinflation, not deflation. Prices are still rising, just more slowly. Since 2020, cumulative inflation is now 25.2%, which explains why households still feel squeezed.

The macro backdrop is shifting. More data will decide if this CPI print is the start of a trend or a one-off adjustment.

✅ @trading

Learning how price moves and where opportunities lie is one thing. Training your mind to stay calm and execute fearlessly in every situation is another entirely. You need both skills to make it in this business. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a 30-year high, driven by persistently elevated inflation. @trading

⚙️ Build Systems, Not Just Goals Every trader has goals. "I want to make 50% returns this year." "I want to be consistently profitable." "I want to quit my job and trade full-time." Goals are good. They give you direction. They give you something to aim for. But goals alone won't get you there. What gets you there are systems. Goals are outcomes. Systems are the habits that lead you there. You can't control whether you make 50% returns this year - the market might not cooperate. But you can control whether you follow your trading system every single day. Want to be consistently profitable? Build a system. A pre-market routine. A checklist for entries. Rules for position sizing. A process for reviewing your trades at the end of the day. Want to make better decisions under pressure? Build a system. Write down your plan before you enter. Set your stops in advance. Define your exits before emotions kick in. The goal is the target. The system is the arrow. Most traders spend all their time thinking about goals. "How much can I make?" "When will I be profitable?" But they don't have a system to get there. They're just hoping, reacting, improvising. Focus on building systems. Daily habits. Repeatable processes. The kind of structure that works whether the market is up or down, whether you're winning or losing. Do that consistently, and the goals take care of themselves. ✅ @trading

🇺🇸 US CPI DATA CAME IN AT 2.7% EXPECTATIONS: 3.1% Bullish. ✅ @trading

🚨 US CPI in 1 hour at 08:30 AM ET This is the main macro catalyst of the week and it will set the tone for rates, the dollar, and risk assets. 🟡 Expected: 3.1% 🔽 If CPI prints above 3.1%, inflation looks sticky, rate cuts get pushed out, and risk assets may face pressure. 🔼If CPI prints below 3.1%, disinflation gains momentum, cuts get priced in faster, and risk usually reacts positively. 🕯 A print near expectations likely keeps markets in the current range until the next macro trigger. How will the market react? 👍 Up 🤝 Flat 👎 Down ✅ @trading

President Trump announced a $1,776 stimulus check for 1,450,000 US soldiers, calling it a “warrior dividend.” He said the checks are already being sent. He also stated that American families could save $11,000–$20,000 on taxes in 2026, with next spring expected to be the largest tax refund season ever.

Direct cash and tax relief are moving to the forefront of fiscal policy.

✅ @trading

🎯 Why sniper training matters for traders Sniper training is not about superior shooting. Shooting skill is assumed. What actually separates candidates is the ability to maintain sound decision-making after long periods of pressure, fatigue, and uncertainty. The challenge comes from the structure of the work. Extended waiting requires sustained attention while stress accumulates quietly. When action becomes necessary, it happens in a short, irreversible window and often with incomplete information. Most failures occur because judgment deteriorates over time, not because the task itself is difficult. This is why advanced sniper programs accept washout rates of 40–60%. Technical ability is common. Behavioral stability under accumulated pressure is not. Training relies on structure rather than motivation. Execution is guided by predefined processes and fixed routines that limit decision-making when pressure peaks. Breathing is used to enforce timing and prevent rushed action. Errors are expected, but recovery follows predefined rules to avoid cascades. The relevance to trading is direct. Markets create long waiting periods followed by sudden opportunities under pressure. Many trading mistakes come from deteriorating execution rather than flawed analysis. The lesson is simple. Edge comes from structure that holds when pressure rises, not from confidence or intensity. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: Silver has surpassed Google in market capitalization to become the world's fourth largest asset. ✅ @trading

🚨 Japan has tanked Bitcoin after EVERY rate hike this cycle: 🟡 Jul 2024: BOJ hikes to 0.25% → BTC -25% 🟡 Jan 2025: BOJ hikes to 0.5% → BTC -30% 🟡 Dec 19: BOJ decides again. Polymarket: 98.5% chance they hike to 0.75%, highest since 1995. ✅ @trading

🔼 SpaceX is about to be the most incredible IPO of all time. ❕THREE times the current valuation of OpenAI.

2026 is going to be a huge year.

✅ @trading

President Trump orders a "complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. ✅ @trading

Don't quit because it's stressful, anything worth it will give you grey hairs. Expect the stress. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: President Trump has announced that he will deliver an address to the nation tomorrow night at 9 PM EST. @trading

JUST IN: US federal employment has declined to its lowest level since 2014, due to widespread layoffs implemented by the Trump Administration. @trading

JUST IN: US oil prices have fallen to $55 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since February 2021. President Trump continues to advocate for gas prices to drop to $2 per gallon. @trading