Trade Watcher

JUST IN: President Trump is preparing to announce a new AI platform named Truth AI. @trading

JUST IN: Crypto liquidations have resumed, driving Bitcoin's price below $90,000. Over the last four hours, $200 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated. @trading

🇺🇸Core PCE came in at 2.8% Expectations: 2.9% A small but clean sign of cooling, giving the market a bit more confidence in the disinflation path. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: President Trump has approved “tiny cars” to be built in the US. ✅ @trading

🇺🇸 US PCE and Core PCE incoming in 1 hour PCE expected at 2.9% Core PCE expected at 2.8% Market reaction? 👍 or 👎 ✅ @trading

JUST IN: Netflix (NFLX) has announced an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion, in what is described as one of the largest media acquisitions in history. @trading

Over the last 72 hours: 1️⃣ Apple's AI Chief steps down 2️⃣ Apple's Head of UI Design leaves to Meta 3️⃣ Apple's Policy Chief steps down 4️⃣ Apple's Head of General Counsel steps down What is happening at Apple? ✅ @trading

🕔 The Stock Market Is Being Steered Toward 24/7 Trading DTCC and EY both say the shift is already underway. Investors who trade crypto around the clock now expect the same access to US equities. The market is slowly moving toward a nonstop format, and the real question is no longer if it happens, but when. ✅ @trading

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Finance is the best because you don't have to be "nice" or play politics in order to win. The market is the ultimate mechanism for objective truth. If you think someone is wrong take your capital and express your opinion, if you're right you get paid. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: "Trump Accounts" will feature TAX-FREE contributions with "hundreds of major companies" set to contribute. 25+ million US kids will now receive $1,000 from the Trump Administration, $250 from Michael Dell, and all tax-free contributions made to these accounts.

This will provide TRILLIONS of dollars to kids if invested until age 20+.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: Meta's stock ($META) has surged more than 5% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg indicated that the company is considering reducing its Metaverse efforts by up to 30%. This move has been anticipated by the market for several years.

The decision to scale back Metaverse investments may improve investor sentiment regarding Meta's cost management and profitability, potentially supporting sustained gains in the stock price amid ongoing scrutiny of the division's performance.

@trading

🇺🇸US Initial Jobless Claims: Actual: 191k Expected: 220k Labor market still looks tight, not the cooldown the Fed wants. ✅ @trading

🇺🇸REMINDER: US initial jobless claims data will be released in 1 hour. Expectations: 220,000 Do you see the reaction up or down? Tap 👍 or 👎 ✅ @trading

💵 US Treasury Just Completed a Record Buyback The US Treasury carried out a record buyback of government bonds worth 12.5 billion dollars. Total submissions reached 34.6 billion dollars, and the Treasury accepted 12.5 billion across twenty three issues.

This is one of the largest liquidity injections from the Treasury in recent years and a clear sign that officials want smoother market functioning and tighter spreads.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: President Trump is set to engage in high-level talks with China to assess whether to permit Nvidia ($NVDA) to export H200 chips to the country, according to the Financial Times. @trading

Young people wreck themselves because they expect life to be fair - they think something, somewhere, is supposed to balance out. It doesn’t. Where you’re born, who you’re born to… Opportunities, interviews, timing - none of it is fair. As a trader you get taught this quickly: the market doesn’t care about effort, time spent, or what you "deserve". It just is. Some days you get paid for doing nothing, other days you do everything right and still get clipped. Accept it early. Drop the expectation, look at things as they are, and play the hand you’ve got. That’s how you actually move forward. ✅ @trading

💱 2026: The Year the Fed Turns Into a New Institution Next year’s market story is the arrival of a new Federal Reserve. If Trump selects Kevin Hassett as Chair, policy shifts toward an openly growth first stance and away from Powell’s caution. ❓ Who Hassett Is Hassett is the leading candidate with strong odds. He argues that inflation is essentially defeated and that current real rates are held up for political reasons. All year he pushed the same message that rates should be much lower. On any hawkish to dovish scale he sits near the most dovish end. The expected sequence is simple. In January he replaces Miran as Governor. In May he becomes Chair. Powell then steps down from the Board as every exiting Chair has done which allows Trump to bring in Warsh. ⚡️ The New Committee If Powell resigns, Hassett gains a firm dovish core supported by a large group of officials who can be convinced. Only two members stand as consistent hawks. If Powell refuses to resign, the outcome turns bearish because he becomes a shadow leader who blocks new appointments and splits loyalty across the committee. 🕯 Market Reaction First comes immediate optimism once Hassett is nominated and confirmed. Then concern grows if Powell remains silent for several weeks. A strong rally follows the moment Powell confirms his exit. Volatility returns ahead of the first meeting under Hassett in June 2026. The risk is a divided committee. The Chair has no special tie breaking power and repeated split votes would undermine trust. 📉 Rates And Repricing The official dot plot hides the real stance. The true median of voting members for late 2026 is close to three point one percent. With Hassett and Warsh in place the center moves toward two point six percent. The market sits near three point zero two percent which leaves meaningful room for the short end to fall. If the productivity boom continues to cool inflation, the pressure for deeper cuts increases. 🌐 Asset Impact Two year yields should drop as easing becomes the base case while ten year yields stay higher due to stronger growth. Equities benefit from lower real discount rates and a revival in growth valuations. Gold strengthens in any environment where the Fed favors expansion over strict inflation control. Bitcoin eventually reacts positively if policy turns clearly supportive despite recent fragile behavior. 🔗 The Tealbook Factor The research staff drives the baseline for every FOMC debate. A shift from a Keynesian outlook to a supply side outlook would produce more disinflationary forecasts which gives moderates room to back stronger cuts.

The result is clear. The year 2026 is set to deliver a true policy regime change. Markets only partly reflect this shift even though the incoming leadership points to a much more forceful turn toward lower rates.

✅ @trading

❗️Oracle’s Debt Insurance Hits 16-Year High Oracle credit default swaps, the cost to insure its debt, have climbed to about 1.28% per year. This is the highest level since 2009 and more than three times the level seen in June. 🔴 The bond market now treats Oracle as one of the riskiest large companies in the entire AI sector. It is the lowest rated hyperscaler at BBB with more than one hundred billion dollars in debt and a major AI data center and power expansion that relies on OpenAI and the Stargate project. Oracle will report Q2 earnings on December 10. ✅ @trading

JUST IN: US ADP Private Payrolls unexpectedly fall by -32,000 jobs in November, while a gain of +10,000 jobs was expected. The Fed will have no choice but to cut rates again. ✅ @trading