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Good Morning Everyone
The selling pressure observed is continuing, causing buyers who entered at the top to panic, especially since Nifty closed near its day's low yesterday. While the overall long-term market structure remains positive, the next two days (Thursday and Friday) are extremely important. If strong buying fails to emerge, the selling could intensify, confirming a potential top formation.
Key Market Categories
Major Market Sentiment:
• Correctionary Bias/Bearish: Strong selling momentum is prevailing, with buyers facing panic. Long opportunities are best planned on deep dips or confirmed reversals.
Important Support and Resistance Levels:
• Nifty Long Zones (Aggressive Dip Buying): 25,565 and 25,310.
• Nifty Intraday Short Trigger: Below 25,705 (following a 15-minute negative candle close).
• Sensex Expiry Key Range: 88,300 (Short below) to 88,375 (Long above).
• Bank Nifty Intraday: 58,800 to 58,860.
Key Index/Stock/Sector Focus Areas:
• Focus remains on Nifty and Bank Nifty, with Sensex also key due to its weekly expiry today. Bank Nifty continues to show signs of outperforming Nifty.
Important Global Cues, News, or Data Points:
• FED Meeting: US FED cut interest rates by 0.25percent.
• The US markets closed positive and Gift Nifty trading at 25,955; 198 points above previous close.
Essential Things Traders Must Keep in Mind:
• Avoid trying to trade every candle or every level; focus on identifying and executing one high-quality opportunity for the day.
• Wait to see how the market reacts at key levels (e.g., the 25,715–25,740 Nifty zone); do not pre-determine whether to buy or sell.
• Remember that reduced screen time and fewer trades generally lead to better profitability.
Trade with discipline, protect your capital.
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Good Morning Everyone
Major Market Sentiment
The current structure indicates strong selling intensity, with a follow-through momentum to the downside following a large drop. Although the broader structure is still viewed as selectively bullish, the focus remains on finding shorting opportunities in the immediate term. The market is likely executing a "trapping" cycle near the All-Time High area (26,200–26,300), where players are dumping stock to trigger stop losses before potentially reversing the trend. Notably, the Bank Nifty structure remains positive and exhibits better relative strength compared to Nifty.
Important Support and Resistance Levels (Nifty Focus)
• Aggressive Long Trigger: Above 25,923 (Today’s High), requiring a 15-minute strong candle close.
• Aggressive Short Trigger: Below 25,728 (Today’s Low), requiring a 15-minute negative candle close.
• Positional Long Zone: Aggressive long planning is anticipated around the 25,450 – 25,300 zone.
Key Index/Sector Focus Areas
• Shorting: Nifty offers better trade opportunities for the short side.
• Longing: Bank Nifty is preferred for long positions as it shows less intensity in selling and stronger relative behaviour.
Important Global Cues
• US Markets: Flat.
• GIFT Nifty: Slightly negative.
Essential Pre-Trade Reminders
• Confirmation is crucial: Do not rush entry. Always wait for an explicit 15-minute strong candle closing above or below key breakout/breakdown levels.
• Avoid thinking like the crowd; focus on simple price action, psychology, and anticipating how large players may trap others.
Trade with discipline, protect your capital.
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Good Morning Everyone
This is your pre-market analysis update for the day.
Major Market Sentiment
The overall structural trend for both Nifty and Bank Nifty remains Positive despite the recent 225-point selling seen yesterday. However, recent volatility has tested the patience of buyers. We must remain flexible and keep the option to short open, capitalising on opportunities as they arise. Positional shorting remains highly risky due to the strong underlying trend.
Key Index Focus Areas
Nifty and Bank Nifty are the primary focus areas, especially as Nifty is facing its weekly expiry.
Important Trading Levels
• Nifty Intraday Short: Plan below 25835 (requires a 15-minute negative candle close).
• Nifty Long: Plan above 26050 (requires a 15-minute strong candle close, representing a 50% recovery of the recent fall).
• Bank Nifty Intraday Short: Plan below 58950 (requires a 15-minute negative candle close).
• Bank Nifty Long: Plan above 59420 (requires a 15-minute strong candle close).
• Key Demand/Positional Buy-on-Dip Zones: Nifty: 25830–25860 (Laxman Rekha). Bank Nifty: Look for long opportunities around 58556 and 57602, expecting strong demand.
Global Cues and Data Points to Watch
• US Markets and Gift Nifty are slightly negative.
• Recall that the previous Friday’s significant rally was primarily driven by news (RBI).
Essential Trader Reminders
1. Keep any short positions planned strictly intra-day, as the market structure is strong, and deep dips are likely to be bought.
2. Do not pre-decide on the direction; wait for clear confirmation (e.g., strong hourly or 15-minute candle closing) at key levels before entering aggressively.
3. Be a flexible trader; your job is to make money by buying or selling based on where the opportunity presents itself.
Trade with discipline, protect your capital.
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