The Bull
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None of my posts are financial advice. Its my observation and opinion. Do your own research. Business: @thebullowner Exclusive Group: @TBE_SUPPORTER Tweets: x.com/thebull_crypto Channel link: https://t.me/+X0yIZqu2BQxlZTBl
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Exchange-held supply continues to decline about 1.5% of BTC and 18% of ETH has moved off exchanges as both assets flow into ETFs and DATs, reinforcing the shift from liquid venues to institutional custody
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The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq-100 remains high at ~0.8; however, BTC reacts more significantly to Nasdaq losses than to gains.
This negative performance skew is now at levels last seen in late 2022, yet we are currently sitting near all-time highs.
Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry does not typically appear near market tops but rather surfaces near bottoms.
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Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.
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$BTC Mid Term View
Trendline break: BTC has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline that supported price from mid year. This suggests loss of bullish momentum and potential for correction or consolidation.
Scenario Breakdown: A daily/2D close below $102,000 would confirm a short term top, opening downside targets around $94,000 → $88,000 aligning with prior structure lows and high volume nodes.
Key supports:
$102,000 – $104,000 → short-term retest (currently testing)
$88,000 – $94,000 → medium support cluster
$70,000 –$75,000 → major structural support (green block), also aligns with the post-ETF consolidation base
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$ETH Mid term: Risk of deeper correction if $3,400 fails
Break of trendline: The major ascending trendline has been broken decisively, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to a corrective or distribution phase.
Current zone: ETH is now testing the green support block (roughly around the $3,400–$3,600 range). This was a previous accumulation and breakout area in July–August, so it’s natural to see bulls try to defend it.
Scenario 1 – Bounce: A short term rebound could occur here if daily closes reclaim above $3,600. That would suggest buyers are still defending the mid term structure.
Scenario 2 – Breakdown: If ETH closes below $3,400 on the daily timeframe, it opens the door for a deeper correction toward $3,050–$2,800, which is the next liquidity cluster and high volume node.
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Does this market even have a bottom?
We’re not trading charts anymore we’re trading intentions of institutions
They are not even hiding that they’re selling on us lol
No one can rescue or fix this market; we’re completely doomed
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October’s always ‘supposed to be green’ and right up until the liquidation haunted house starts. The nightmare’s nearly over.
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Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
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JUST IN: JPMorgan to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin & Ethereum as collateral.
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