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$BTC UPDATE
Retest of 8.4% resistance finished as mentioned in the previous update. Now expecting a move towards 8%, possibly towards $120K level. FOMC tomorrow, so it may not happen till next 24 hours and there is usually always a small sell-off before FOMC, so expect a choppy day.
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$BTC UPDATE
Talked about this trendline break multiple times during our updates. Now that the 8.4% level is fully flipped and a 1D resistance, this doodle is your easy long trigger. Wait for the bearish retest of 8.4% to go long on bitcoin. Going to be an interesting week ahead with FOMC and earning reports.
JOIN IN FOXES
( Sherlock’s important Livestream)
Click on the link below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/live/1nBHn7JOKsE?si=05qzsYuGSGuyPR-N
Will Bitcoin Drop to $90K or Set a New All-Time High Soon?
Don't miss today's important Livestream by Sherlock 📊 ( This can help you decide whether to keep your trades open or close Them )
⏰ TIME : 2:30 PM UK (in 1 hour)
🔴LINK :
https://www.youtube.com/live/1nBHn7JOKsE?si=05qzsYuGSGuyPR-N
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$BTC UPDATE
We’ve seen another small bounce on the $STABLEC.D chart, with index respecting the ascending trendline. However, if you draw a descending trendline off the recent highs (in conjunction with that ascending line), you’ll notice price is trading into a narrow triangle, an area of compressed volatility and I am expecting the expansion move today or tomorrow.
I would say the more likely scenario is that we see a break below the trendline (60% chance). However, the key trigger remains unchanged: a 4H or preferably 1D close below 8.40% would be your confirmation for a long bias. Until then expect lots of chop and fakeouts just like we’ve seen in the last few days. So, unless you are trading top gainers/losers with extreme volatility, I would suggest being patient here and wait for the breakout of range on stablecoin dominance.
$BTC UPDATE
Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin rallied from $108K to $113.5K, but this move was fully in line with expectations, nothing unexpected or structurally new has developed. As mentioned in yesterday’s update, $STABLEC.D has been sitting on its 8.60% – 8.40% support range, and once again it has bounced at 8.42%. As long as the index continues to trade within this range, the support has not been lost, and there’s no technical reason to go aggressively long. For any genuine confirmation, we would need to see at least a 4H close below 8.40%, and for stronger validation, a daily close below 8.40%. Until that happens, Stablecoin Dominance continues to show strength and upward compression.
On the Bitcoin daily chart, price has been struggling repeatedly to break above the 1D 12 EMA and the 1D QVWAP, two important dynamic resistances that have dictated every major rejection since the early October breakdown. The previous rejection at $115.7K was the first retest of that 1D QVWAP after the breakdown on 10 October, and yesterday’s move to $113.5K was essentially the second retest. Price still hasn’t managed a daily close above even the 1D 12 EMA, which is less important of the two indicators, let alone reclaiming the VWAP.
So, until Bitcoin gives a clean daily close above the 1D QVWAP or a sweep below the $102K–$98.2K lows, we are still trading inside the same big consolidation range.
Also, as discussed yesterday, the ascending trendline on the Stablecoin Dominance 4H chart has now been fully confirmed after the recent bounce around 8.4%. On the Daily timeframe, we would need one more retest to confirm the same trendline formation but the structure already implies that a large downside break is coming. Once Stablecoin Dominance breaks below this trendline, it is likely to trigger a sharp, impulsive leg higher for Bitcoin soon but it could be after the sweep at $102K or $98.2K.
$BTC UPDATE
As mentioned in the previous update, there was no reason to be overly excited when Bitcoin was trading right at the resistance zone ($110K–$112K). It was the first retest of that level and we made the right call by staying patient and not forcing any long entries there.
At the same time, Stablecoin Dominance was giving its first retest at support. It was also bouncing off the 1D 12 EMA (Yellow line), confirming that momentum on the dominance chart remains strong. So far, I haven’t seen any meaningful structural break on the Stablecoin Dominance chart. Until that happens, the base assumption remains that Stablecoin Dominance is still bullish, which means there will be this significant downside risk present on bitcoin that the lows can get sweeped at $98.2K or $102K. Or unless Stablecoin Dominance loses the 8.6 – 8.4 % support zone and gives a clean 4H close below it, there’s no reason to turn fully bullish on Bitcoin. Yes, if you look at the $TOTAL chart or the $BTC/USDT.D chart, both still hold their supports, so from a broader perspective, the market structure looks fine.
On the 4H timeframe, I’ve identified a new ascending trendline also forming on the Stablecoin Dominance chart. The recent bounce around the 8.5 % zone has confirmed that trendline. This means that an impulsive break below this trendline is likely coming but since it’s only visible on the 4H timeframe, it may take some time to fully play out and plus, may not be a large breakdown. So, until we either get a 4H or 1D close above $112K on $BTC or a confirmed break below 8.4 % on Stablecoin Dominance, there’s no reason to turn overly bullish here.
Finally, ahead of his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping, Trump has once again said that he expects a “fantastic deal” with China but, he also warned that tariffs on China could go as high as 155% starting November 1 if the talks don’t go well. It’s a typical Trump mix of confidence and pressure, leaving everyone caught between hope for a breakthrough and a constant fear of another tariff shock.
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$BTC/$USDT.D UPDATE
Most people aren’t paying attention to this, but the $BTC/USDT.D chart which shows Bitcoin’s relative strength against USDT dominance is currently sitting right at a major 3D support level.
This level has held importance since 2021, and historically it’s been a strong inflection zone. The last break below this level (in the final week of February 2025) led to Bitcoin dropping from $98K to $74K over the following three months showing how critical this area truly is.
While this isn’t the first retest of the zone, it’s still important. The current reaction could very well signal that $103K was the bottom for this correction.
Personally, I would’ve preferred to see a clean sweep of the $102K or $98.2K lows before confirming a bottom but this chart is hinting that we might have already seen it.
A daily close above $112K on Bitcoin will bring much clearer confirmation and likely mark the start of the next impulsive leg up.
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$BTC UPDATE
Stablecoin dominance has now reached the support zone at 8.60%–8.45%, while Bitcoin is giving its first retest of the $110K–$112K resistance zone.
For those asking if price has broken above resistance, the answer is no. We’ll need to see at least a 4H or 1D candle close above $112K to confirm any successful breakout.
On the stablecoin side, we’d need a 4H close below 8.45% before considering any meaningful long exposure. Until that happens, this remains a neutral zone, not a confirmed bullish shift.
As for $USDT.D, it has dipped below the 4.9% support, but I’m not giving much weight to that yet. We’ve seen multiple fakeouts around this level on the 4H timeframe before.
However, if we get a 1D close below 4.95%, that would be significant enough to discard any short bias and start considering long opportunities.
TODAY'S IMPORTANT LIVESTREAM BY SHERLOCK 🔥
Massive $20 Billion Liquidation: Leverage Reset or Panic Selling? ( Market Update)✅
⏰ TIME: 2:30 PM UK (1 hour left)
🔴 LINK:
https://www.youtube.com/live/2L1txOjnjTI?si=EdIZ8WS3Ltf9kJSz
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$BTC UPDATE (Follow-Up)
$USDT.D has completed its retest at the 4.95% resistance, and so far it has resulted in an immediate rejection from that level.
This is a daily timeframe chart, so we’ll need to wait for the daily close to confirm the rejection but as it stands, the initial reaction is clearly a strong rejection for $USDT dominance.
A confirmed daily rejection here may not weaken the bullish structure on $USDT.D but atleast could send it back to 4.6% support and reduce the immediate downside pressure on Bitcoin.
For now, 4.95% remains the key level to watch closely. One thing I still don’t like are the dead cat bounces at the ascending trendline on bitcoin chart.
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$BTC UPDATE
$USDT.D is approaching the key 4.95% resistance, while Stablecoin Dominance is already trading at its resistance zone.
This is, in my view, the most crucial level right now.
If USDT dominance reclaims this resistance, there’s a 60%–70% probability that Bitcoin breaks below its ascending trendline.
$USDT.D already has a bullish structure, and a successful reclaim here would further solidify the uptrend, adding pressure on $BTC and alts.
On the other hand, a rejection at this level wouldn’t be a game changer, the index would likely stay between 4.95% resistance and 4.6% support range, without any major structural shift.
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$OTHERS UPDATE
Though $BTCDOM is currently sitting at support, $OTHERS just gave the deviation retest we talked about yesterday. This bullish retest at support is usually a powerful long signal.
So unlike many out there, I’m not super bearish on altcoins right now.
For alts that closed their daily candles below key resistances after the liquidation event, yes — that could be a bearish signal. But for the majority, this structure looks more like a deviation retest rather than a clean breakdown. Unless we see a daily close below support, this remains a good setup.
This same structure is visible across most altcoin charts — treat it as a deviation retest or partial wick fill, not as a fresh short trigger.
Also, keep in mind: we have CPI & PPI releases on Thursday, and it’s pretty common to see sell-offs or volatility ahead of major news events.
$BTC UPDATE
From the perspective of stablecoin dominance, it’s going to be an important daily close today. I will still consider it a deviation retest on daily and only if we get a daily close above resistance, we can start considering any other possibilities.
But remember that, $USDT.D is sitting firmly at 4.6% support and has given the successful 1st retest. Expect another retest of 4.9% resistance in the next few hours. $USDT.D was always going to be the spoiler part for any quick rebound situation for bitcoin because of the strong bullish reversal that we have seen in the previous week. On this index, if we draw the fibs from 4.16% lows to 5.52% high, it’s a clear 0.65 Fib level bounce along with 1D support at 4.6% region. A 2% increase will take bitcoin down to $108.5K, so yes, expect another retest of this zone in next few hours.
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$OTHERS UPDATE
$OTHERS, $OTHERS.D and $OTHERSBTC, all three indices have massive deviations below supports with 1D close mostly above the support which makes it a decent opportunity to go long on alts or just pick a few strong ones in spot.
Since the next resistance levels on all three charts are quite far away, so you still have the opportunity to catch the move. Once price hits the resistance, we’ll be focusing on shorts.
