CRYPTO TREYSI

💸 Trump only supports assets on Ethereum Friends, went to Trump's public wallet again today and noted for myself that 90% of the assets in his portfolio are based on the Ethereum blockchain. If you're still wondering which assets are best to buy on the spot, I think the answer is obvious. ❕ All of the biggest players in the market are putting the main focus specifically on ether and the assets in its blockchain. It should make its holders very happy in this cycle 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🔎 The market is drawing market formations Friends, altcoin market capitalisation has perfectly tested the multi-year support line today. 95% of useless projects are gone or didn't survive in the market - this is a good sign for new growth. ❕ If you've been waiting for a good time to accumulate altcoins, I think you can buy (although most of you are probably already sitting with bags of tokens) 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🐸 Crypto is a bubble, but many don’t see it Friends, for the past year and a half, many have been clinging to the hope of a massive altseason, largely due to flashbacks from the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.

However, the current situation is drastically different. The altcoin market has become a massive bubble, with project metrics skyrocketing beyond reason.

🔎 How a financial bubble forms A financial bubble occurs when asset prices are significantly inflated beyond their true economic value. The main causes include: • excessive investor optimism • mass speculative demand • herd mentality 🛡 These bubbles often arise due to the difficulty of valuing emerging technologies. For instance, 20–25 years ago, the internet’s potential was clear, but its development trajectory and valuation remained uncertain.

This uncertainty fuels speculation, leading people to invest without fundamental metrics — because they don’t exist yet.

💸 A similar situation in crypto In traditional finance, we have numerous valuation metrics to assess an industry or a specific company: ROE, ROA, EV/EBITDA, and so on. Crypto, however, lacks such established norms, making valuation more challenging. This was particularly evident during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. 🔤 But now, some key metrics are emerging, such as: • P/F — market cap to fees generated • P/MAU — market cap to monthly active users • P/GDP — market cap to the total ecosystem volume

In traditional markets, major companies within a sector tend to have similar valuation ratios, with differences rarely exceeding 2x.

📥 Now, let’s look at the crypto market… The discrepancies here are far greater. For instance, the P/F ratio: • Ethereum + L2 — 638x • Solana — 82x • BNB — 234x • Aptos — 4547x Such extreme variations indicate a highly distorted market and a clear bubble, particularly in the L1 chain sector. 🔖 Some may argue that these projects should be evaluated as startups, where such high valuations are more common. Fair enough! The most straightforward and effective method in this case is comparative analysis — benchmarking projects against an industry standard.

A benchmark is a reference point used for comparison. In our case, Ethereum serves as the benchmark.

📑 We conducted a detailed analysis and reached significant conclusions. Here’s a brief summary for you: Solana is undervalued by 16% compared to its competitors. However, all other major projects are massively overvalued: • BNB — +282% • TON — +447% • Aptos — +1548% ❕ As you can see, the crypto bubble is undeniable from any perspective. But why did it form, and how did the market allow it? Are we heading for a crash similar to the dot-com era? Drop some reactions🔥, and we’ll release the follow-up analysis soon! CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💸 Adoption of stablecoins as a growth factor Friends, I’m back. There haven’t been posts for a few days as I was dealing with some important personal matters. Today, I want to discuss the topic of stablecoin adoption. 🔤 Recently, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that an audit of Tether’s reserves could finally take place thanks to the cancellation of Chokepoint 2.0. The company is currently working with a «Big Four» auditing firm to carry out the audit of its reserves.

The Choke Point 2.0 operation is a term used to describe the Biden administration's alleged strategy aimed at limiting cryptocurrency companies’ access to banking services.

🔎 What will this bring? It will reduce concerns about USDT, including accusations of illegal activities, and confirm Tether’s reserves (~$143 billion). This is important since Tether is the 7th largest holder of U.S. government debt.

It was reported yesterday that the U.S. House will consider stablecoin legislation on April 2.

🔖 It seems that China also doesn’t want to fall behind in this «war», and rumors are already circulating that the government plans to accelerate the development of stablecoins backed by the yuan. It’s safe to say that stablecoins will play an increasingly important role in the global economy, and their adoption and integration into financial systems will only benefit cryptocurrency. ❕ The market capitalization of stablecoins is currently $237 billion, nearly double last year’s figure. New ATHs for stablecoins are historically bullish for the crypto market, though time is needed.🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🇺🇸 US ends war on crypto Friends, Digital Asset Summit 2025 was recently held, where Trump said some nice words: 1️⃣ Called on the US Congress to pass a law to regulate stablecoins. 2️⃣ Let's create a crypto reserve and not sell like Biden. 3️⃣ Crypto is the greatest revolution and together we will make America the undisputed bitcoin superpower and crypto capital of the world.

Although the rumour that Trump would announce the abolition of capital gains tax for crypto didn't come true, but overall — theses are bullish for us.

In fact, the crypto war in the US is over — the day before yesterday the SEC dropped the case against XRP and other companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, Kraken, Yuga Labs, etc. 🔤 Projects are raising large sums, just yesterday TON raised $400m, Walrus raised $140m, and many projects are rushing to get out as seen in the seals and announcements.

But despite this, their numbers are multiples less than they were in the last bull market.

Whales are actively accumulating BTC and ETH, while the SEC has clarified that miners and mining pools aren’t engaged in securities offerings, bringing more clarity for the industry. ❕ It's as if this whole puzzle is adding up and giving the feeling that we are about to be somewhere on the cusp of that very upward reversal 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💰 What Do I Expect from the Bitcoin Chart? Friends, I decided to share a quick post with my thoughts on Bitcoin—right now, the price is around $82,000. 🔤 At the moment, I would expect a correction down to approximately $74,000, followed by an upward reversal. However, my team and I do not plan to make any short-term trades within this range.

In general, trading inside a range is always riskier than trading from its boundaries.

Why Do I Expect a Correction? 1️⃣ I believe the market is still underestimating the impact of Bitcoin being included in the Strategic Reserve. The real effect has yet to materialize. The executive order states that «government-held Bitcoins included in the Strategic Reserve are not subject to sale and must remain as U.S. reserve assets».

If you follow the market, you’ve probably seen theories that a correction is expected due to the distribution and potential sell-off of funds from the now-defunct Mt. Gox.

💸 A similar concern existed around the possible sale of Bitcoins confiscated by the U.S. government. However, this risk is no longer relevant at the legislative level. Considering that the U.S. government holds approximately 190,000 BTC, this is a strong positive factor, as there is no potential for massive sell pressure. 2️⃣ The market is currently in a state of clear uncertainty, and during such times, investors tend to sell rather than buy. ❕ As always, this is not financial advice, and all decisions are yours to make. Personally, I am waiting for a clearer market environment and am not making any trades for now 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

📈 Should We Expect Growth in ETH? Today, I took a look at the Ethereum chart and noticed something interesting. ETH is still holding above its long-term support line. 🔤 Since 2021, it has tested this line only four times, and each time it led to the formation of a bottom. I believe this time won’t be any different. Right now, the price is hovering near that level, and if it drops a bit lower to around $1,700, I’ll be expecting a price reversal.

In general, the crypto community has a pretty big bet on ETH right now, but I wouldn't share that much optimism.

❕ For Ethereum, it is extremely important to improve its marketing and only then it will be able to show a furor. What type of posts do you prefer? 🔥 — several smaller posts throughout the day 🐳 — one big post once a day CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💸 The market is changing, but it's not all that scary Noticed a lot of guys were a little freaked out yesterday by what I said about the changes in this cycle — but it's not all that scary. 🔤 Despite the changing narratives and general market sentiment, this cycle is looking more and more like 2017. Q1 didn't go well for BTC then either, but it surged in Q2. Guess who was the US president then? That's right — Trump, just like now. ❕ Plus, the global money supply has reached a new ATH, which means BTC may soon follow suit 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

😎 What is Trump doing? The dollar is falling Friends, I have the strong feeling that Trump has challenged the geopolitical order that has been in place for decades. 🔤 His aggressive trade policy, sharp tariff hikes, and global market uncertainty have already had the first effect — the US dollar has started to lose ground. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, Europe, on the other hand, is breathing more freely: stocks in the EU have surged, the yield on German bonds saw its sharpest jump since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the euro strengthened.

But here’s what’s strange — Bitcoin is not rising.

📥 In the past, when the dollar index dropped, crypto, especially BTC, showed an inverse correlation and went up. However, now the market is not reacting in the usual way. While the dollar continues to lose ground, Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range and is not showing signs of upward momentum.

This is a new market, and the old models no longer work the way they used to.

❕ We’ll keep an eye on the movement, but for now, the previous narratives should be reconsidered. We are entering a new phase, and the usual patterns might yield different results — this is something we must accept. Should I make a detailed post on this topic? 🔥 — Yes 🐳 — No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

📉 Trump Is Losing Money Too Friends, if you're feeling down because of a dip in your portfolio, keep in mind — Trump is also sitting in the red.

Trump’s portfolio is currently down by $124 million!

He’s riding out this drawdown right alongside us. This man clearly didn’t pick his coins randomly — I believe he knows very well that there’s light at the end of the tunnel and the long-awaited altcoin rally is coming. ❕ The fact that he’s calmly holding onto his assets and even buying more speaks volumes…🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🚨 New negativity against MicroStrategy – are we falling again? Friends, more and more people on social media are comparing MicroStrategy to LUNA and FTX, calling it the next potential liquidation that could drag the market down.

MicroStrategy has long been a symbol of corporate BTC accumulation.

🔤 Since its first purchase in 2020, the company has accumulated more than 193,000 BTC, using not only its own funds but also borrowed capital. The main question: Could MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin assets? Many are concerned that a drop in BTC price could lead to a margin call and mass selling.

Let's break down the real situation.

🔎 How are MicroStrategy’s finances structured? 1️⃣ Debt Structure: • $7.2 billion in total debt, of which $2.2 billion is secured by BTC. • Convertible bonds ($2.2 billion) with low interest rates and maturities in 2028-2030. • $2.2 billion in fixed-rate bonds with no liquidation requirements. • $2.8 billion in secured loans, with BTC serving as collateral. 2️⃣ Margin Calls and Liquidation: • MicroStrategy took a margin loan from Silvergate ($205 million) secured by BTC, but this loan was paid off in 2023. • The company currently has no urgent margin loan obligations that could trigger forced liquidation. • If BTC drops to $10,000, MicroStrategy could still provide additional BTC as collateral. 📥 Why isn’t MicroStrategy liquidating? • The company does not use highly risky leverage. • Its long-term obligations have low interest rates and deferred maturities. • Margin calls are unlikely due to the flexible collateral structure. ❕ Key takeaway: the myth of MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate is an exaggeration. The company confidently continues its BTC-buying strategy and is not at risk, even during major market upheavals 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💸 People are refusing to sell – how will we grow? Friends, it's likely that some altcoins have been sitting in a drawdown in your wallets for a long time, and you're thinking: "I'll hold until the end, growth is inevitable!"

On one hand, this is a valid statement, but what if most people are thinking this way, and the rule "95% of people lose money" has stopped working...

🔤 Over the past month, the market has been delighting us with many positive news, but the charts continue to slide down, and there's a feeling that people aren't selling at all, but just holding their positions. Trading volumes on leading CEXs significantly dropped in February — the total spot volume fell by 21%.

Notably, Upbit lost 46% of its total volume, and Kraken saw a 27% decrease.

📊 Traders are either refraining from trading during the current correction, waiting for a growth wave, or they’ve already built up spot positions and are just observing. But in any case, they need an uptrend. Try answering this question: What kind of news event could suddenly push the market up now? — It’s difficult to say. A lot has already happened that we would not have believed just a year ago — theoretically, the market should be in much better shape.

But perhaps, this is exactly what will force the market to finally clean itself up and enter a growth phase?!

🔎 Let's consider a scenario that currently seems quite realistic: Bitcoin is at $80,000, and it continues to drop to $70,000, dragging the entire market with it. At the same time, many news stories come out: approval of staking on ETH-ETF, the start of quantitative easing, approval of ETFs for SOL and XRP, etc. It’s easy to imagine what’s going on in people's minds: "That’s it, altcoins are dead. The market is full of positivity, but we’re only going down — it seems better to sell and preserve what’s left." 📥 The probability that the rule "95% of people lose money in the market" no longer applies is practically zero.

The key is to adapt it to current conditions.

In this cycle, we might see how key news will only start to play out after a few months. We’ve seen this happen many times in history. For example, in November 2008, the Fed announced a large-scale asset (bond) buyback, but the S&P 500 continued to fall for several months after the announcement — recession fears were stronger.

Only in March 2009 did the powerful bull run begin, lasting for years. It took 4 months for the market to "believe" in the positivity of QE.

❕ Yes, the market is falling — it's tough. If you sell now, you might buy back lower, but are you willing to sell at a loss? Patient and flexible investors always win in the long run 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

📈 Why it’s more profitable for the market to grow right now Friends, today I was analyzing various indicators and I want to draw your attention to one key fact:

Even when BTC reaches ~$72,000, long positions will be liquidated by no more than $100 million.

🔤 However, with further recovery to ~$90,000, short positions will be liquidated by approximately $2.2 billion — the difference is enormous. This is a clear sign that short positions are currently dominating the market. — This imbalance needs to be addressed, so I am focused on a good rally to the upside to harvest the available liquidity and change market sentiment. ❕ Yes, this isn’t a panacea, but such an imbalance should definitely affect the behavior of major players, as their main goal is to make a profit, and our goal is to understand how they will do it and follow their lead 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💸 Stock market falls — is bitcoin next? Friends, yesterday Wall Street experienced one of its worst days in the past three years. In just 24 hours, $1.7 trillion was wiped off the U.S. stock market.

And since February 20, total losses have reached $4.5 trillion.

— S&P 500: -5.04% — Nasdaq: -4.04% — Dow Jones: -2.48% Tech giants posted their worst performance since 2020. A broad correction is underway, fear is spreading, and investors are fleeing risk assets. 💰 There’s growing talk that the main driver for BTC right now is liquidity. The M2 money supply — a key measure of available money in the economy — has bottomed out and is starting to rise sharply.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow this trend with about a 20-day lag.

If the theory holds true, we might see a fresh price surge and a reversal for BTC in the coming weeks. However, it's important to note that not all M2 liquidity flows into risk assets. — Some are buying gold, others prefer bonds, and some are simply moving into cash. 🔤 Arthur Hayes — former CEO of BitMEX believes: 1️⃣ $70,000 is likely the local bottom before further upside 2️⃣ A 30%+ correction is a standard part of a bull market 3️⃣ If the stock market continues to crash, major central banks will restart the money printer — and that means a new wave of liquidity that could send Bitcoin higher again

Financial markets move in cycles. Right now, we’re in a downturn marked by panic and risk-off behavior.

❕ But if the Fed and other central banks start flooding the system with liquidity again, Bitcoin may become the biggest beneficiary of the next phase 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💵 How to make mistakes in trading (and not go broke) Friends, mistakes are an inevitable part of trading, one of its most important components. You probably know this, but many traders still get very stressed about losing trades.

Let’s go through a few useful principles that will not only help minimize mistakes but also manage them properly.

1️⃣ Define Invalidation in Advance Any trading idea should be falsifiable — before entering a trade, you should have a set of conditions under which your hypothesis becomes irrelevant. If there are no such conditions, you are trading blindly and cannot objectively assess your risk. 2️⃣ Follow the Established Limits Planning for invalidation is not enough — you also need to stick to it. A classic example of poor risk management:

Entering a trade with full risk → the price moves against you → adding to the losing position → refusing to sell the position → a large loss.

Some traders justify this by the desire to be flexible, but flexibility should be built into the analysis before entry, not appear after the fact when the situation gets out of control. 3️⃣ Stick to Position Sizes The size of your position should match the probability profile of the setup: • Higher risk for rare but highly effective setups that bring in the main profit. • Lower risk for standard, frequently occurring setups with a positive expected value.

The key is to not exceed the established risk limits. Increasing the position in a losing trade creates a synthetic losing streak and can lead to catastrophic consequences.

4️⃣ Don’t Worsen the Mistakes A streak of losses is inevitable even in a successful strategy. The greatest damage happens when small mistakes turn into a series of catastrophic failures: • Trading out of spite or revenge against the market. • Doubling down on losing positions. • Sharply increasing risk after losses. 🔤 When a trader enters a nervous state, they lose control over themselves. If you had a flat tire, you wouldn’t get out of the car and puncture the other three tires, would you?

However, this happens all the time in trading.

❕ Your task is to find a system that protects you from yourself. Let’s work...🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💰 What was discussed at the Crypto Summit from the White House Friends, yesterday the highly anticipated crypto summit took place, and here are the key takeaways that were discussed: 🔤 Trump: — The United States is already one of the largest holders of BTC, with about 200,000 BTC. — The Treasury Department and the Department of Commerce will explore ways to acquire additional BTC reserves. — We are concluding Operation «ChokePoint 2.0» (the de-banking of the crypto industry). — I want stablecoin legislation passed before the August recess. America will never sell its BTC. — Assets not related to BTC will be stored in a separate vault. 🔎 Scott Bessette (U.S. Treasury): — We will focus a lot on creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins and end the repression of the crypto industry. — We will cancel and amend all previous recommendations from the IRS regarding cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is no longer just «digital gold», but a strategic asset. It will be accumulated and held, with no pressure from potential government sell-offs, and finally, a regulatory framework for stablecoins will emerge.

And this is just what was said openly to the press. What was discussed behind closed doors — we’ll find out or see later.

❕ So, the best thing to do now is to be patient and wait, as such processes take time. But the most important thing is — the ice has broken 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🛡 Trump officially accepts crypto reserve friends, US President Donald Trump has approved an executive order creating the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Fund. 🔤 It includes both BTC and altcoins. As expected, there were no high-profile surprises — no one announced that they are about to go to Binance and buy $100 billion worth of cryptos (although cryptos certainly dreamed of hearing just that 😂).

What is at the core of the crypto reserve?

The bulk of the assets are previously confiscated and seized cryptocurrencies. Simply put, the very BTC and altcoins that the government received after scams, court cases and investigations.

How is the reserve structured?

✅ BTC reserve — you can buy, but you can't sell. This is a key plus, as now government agencies will no longer be able to sell BTC into the market, but only accumulate it. ❌ Alt-reserve — purchases are prohibited, but sales are allowed. Another disadvantage for alts. Even the government is realising that alts are better flipped rather than held long term.

What does this mean for the market?

1️⃣ BTC is officially recognised as digital gold — the US confirms its status. 2️⃣ Government BTC will no longer be traded - now only hold and accumulate. 3️⃣ Bitcoin becomes the new reserve currency in the global economy. Even if you don't have large sums of money, it's worth starting to accumulate BTC. This is not financial advice, but history is being made right now. Those who realise this today will find themselves in a win-win situation tomorrow. ❕ A year and a half ago, no one would have imagined that the US would be the first to create a crypto reserve based on BTC and alts. Now it is a reality 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💸 Why is a market crash beneficial for Trump? Friends, the image above summarizes the rationale behind the current administration’s actions and the reasons why they negatively impact the market in the short term. 1️⃣ In the next six months, $7 trillion in debt needs to be repaid. If not, it will have to be refinanced. 2️⃣ The Trump administration does not want to refinance the debt at rates above 4%, yet this year, the yield on 10-year bonds reached 4.8%. 3️⃣ How can the yield on 10-year bonds be lowered? By creating the perception of slower economic growth, demonstrating that the inflation reduction program is working, and pushing for lower interest rates.

To achieve this, tariffs are introduced, causing uncertainty in the markets. As a result, investors start selling stocks and buying bonds, which lowers their yields.

🔎 This, in turn, gives the Federal Reserve grounds to cut interest rates, making debt refinancing even cheaper. Although tariffs typically lead to higher inflation and should, in theory, increase bond yields, the opposite is happening: fear in the market is driving investors toward safe-haven assets — specifically, bonds. ❕ This is exactly what Trump’s team is aiming for in the short term — to reduce the cost of servicing the national debt 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

🐸 Breakdown of key indicators of BTC dominance friends, bitcoin dominance has touched the trend line, which has existed for almost 8 years (each touch led to the season of alts) 🔤 Also, we touched another indicator, which has never failed before, always after its breakdown we observed a reversal of dominance.

Confirmation of all this, you can see on the chart.

❕ Once again it proves that we are on the threshold of the reversal of the sector of alts. Take note, but learn that the market has become more complicated on many fronts... CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

💵 How Big Players Capture Liquidity Friends, many of you are likely either trading in the crypto market or simply holding an investment portfolio, so here's a useful post for you. 🔤 If you've ever watched charts, you've probably noticed this pattern: the price approaches a level, seemingly breaks through it, but then sharply reverses back.

This can be described in three phrases: false breakout, stop-loss hunting, and liquidations. But let's break down why this happens.

🔖 The Nature of a False Breakout A false breakout occurs when the price breaks a significant level, but instead of continuing in that direction, it quickly returns. — It often happens during sideways market movement. It's no secret that for a price to rise, buyers are needed, and for it to fall, sellers. This is why major players are always looking for where the main liquidity and stop-losses are concentrated.

They move the price to gather as many orders as possible before creating a real market move.

🔎 What Happens When Stop-Losses Are Triggered? 1️⃣ The price moves toward a level where there are a lot of orders. Traders see this and place their positions. 2️⃣ Stop-losses accumulate behind the level. For example: — Short sellers place stops above resistance. — Long traders place stops below support. 3️⃣ Large players see these stop orders and create a false move: — In the case of a false breakout upwards — Market Makers push the price above resistance, triggering short traders' stop orders. Their liquidations create forced buying, which pushes the price higher in the short term — In the case of a false breakout downwards — the price breaks through support, and long traders' stop-losses turn into market sell orders.

After the stops are triggered, the price quickly reverses because major players have gained liquidity to enter the opposite position.

💬 But what should those who are encountering these formations for the first time do? In trading, your best teacher is experience. However, here are some recommendations: 1️⃣ Wait for a Retest A retest (return to the level) helps confirm the true direction of the price movement. Useful tools: • Resonance – tracking clusters; • ATAS – tracking volume analysis and order flow. 2️⃣ Watch Liquidity and Clusters Liquidity is the fuel of the market. Major players move the price where the most orders are concentrated. Useful tools: • Bookmap – liquidity and volume visualization; • Hyblock – monitoring liquidations and liquidity zones.

Use these tools, learn, observe yourself, and over time, you'll see how the chart becomes more readable.

❕ Keep in mind that in crypto, 70% of the time the market is in a sideways trend, and only 30% of the time is it moving. The question is not whether you’ll catch the breakout, but whether you'll be able to recognize it in advance . Do you trade crypto? 🔥 — Yes, actively 🧐 — No 🐳 — I would like to learn CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe