QCP Capital

❤️ FBG Asia Colour - September 22, 2025 The tone has shifted from panic to recalibration. PCE looks set to guide the curve’s shape rather than the broader policy regime. The Fed’s 25 bp insurance cut reopened the easing path, yet the dots signaled only measured dovishness. Long rates climbed on term-premium and supply pressures even as the front end re-anchored. Equities pushed to fresh highs. Gold briefly topped $3.7k before retracing. The USD firmed alongside Treasuries, raising the question of whether the one-way dollar short has finally run its course. Chair Powell framed the cut as risk management against softer labor momentum. With activity still robust and core inflation near 3%, the easing cycle looks shallow unless growth cracks clearly emerge. The Fed is leaning toward the employment side but will tread carefully given sticky disinflation, tariff uncertainty, and the risk of stimulating lending into strength. Governor Stephen Miran has argued policy remains too restrictive relative to a lower r*. Demographics, immigration, and other structural forces, in his view, anchor a “mid-2%” fair funds rate well below current settings. That suggests the hurdle for additional cuts may be lower than the dots alone imply. Beneath tariff chatter, consumption remains resilient and inventories have rebuilt. Labor markets resemble a slow-hire, slow-fire cycle rather than outright weakness. The cut buys time but does not solve fiscal arithmetic. More reliance on duration management, bill issuance, and other funding-mix adjustments looks likely, leaving a persistently elevated long-end term premium. The USD slide in the first half of 2025 reflected flows, policy divergence, and governance concerns. With the first cut behind us and Europe and Japan no longer clear outperformers, the risk of a bottoming move is real. We still see the dollar softer into year-end on divergence and further easing, but last week’s post-FOMC rebound is a reminder that the path is likely to stay choppy. Gold’s record underscores lingering doubts that the Fed will reassert hawkish credibility, leaving a safety premium in place. BTC shares this beta, though with sharper swings. @FBGVentures ❤️

❤️ FBG Capital Daily Market Report – September 21, 2025 📎 Executive Summary Markets are adjusting after the Fed’s 25bps cut to 4.00–4.25%. Equities hit new highs, though guidance points to only 75bps more easing by end-2026, tempering optimism. Core PCE at 3.0% and tariff risks keep the Fed cautious. Bitcoin holds above $116K with \$1.1B ETF inflows but lags the Nasdaq’s 5% rally. The 10Y yield rose to 4.13%, the dollar is steady, and crypto market cap climbed 0.8% to $4.04T. Bias stays bullish, but hedging with 42% IV options is advised. 🪙 Crypto Snapshot BTC $116K, ETH $4,650, with record $266M ETH ETF inflow. Solana +3% on filings, Dogecoin +2%, XRP steady at $3.05. MC $4.04T, trading volumes $155B (+5%). Fear & Greed Index 55, APAC on-chain activity +10% to $2.36T. Risks: tariffs, regulation ⌨️ TradFi Overview

S&P 500 +0.32% (6,653), Nasdaq +0.72% (22,631), tech and small caps lead. UST 10Y yield 4.13%. Gold stable at $2,650/oz, oil down to $72/bbl. Consumer confidence 56.2, jobless claims 260K

❕ Flows & Positioning Crypto OI stable, low vol; institutions added $1.2B to ETFs. Equity flows rotate to value/small caps but tech still leads with 60%. Tokenized RWAs at $15B AUM ( +10% ). 👁 Macro Watch Fed neutral, unemployment 4.3%, retail sales +0.1%. ECB projects 2.0% growth by 2026. Tariffs and geopolitics weigh, while regulation supports crypto. >>> FBG Outlook BTC could test $118K if jobless claims <250K and PCE <3.0%. ETH rotation supported by 4.5% staking yield. Suggested allocation: 55% BTC/ETH, 35% alts, 10% RWAs, targeting $20B AUM by Q4. Hedge with 25D strangles. @FBGVentures ❤️

The Fed is widely expected to begin its next easing cycle tonight, with markets fully pricing in a 25bp cut that will bring the policy rate to 4.00–4.25%. Given the Fed’s well-telegraphed intention to start cutting in September, investor focus is squarely on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for clarity on the pace and scale of easing through 2026. Current market pricing reflects three cuts in 2025 and an additional three in 2026. Powell’s press conference will provide further details on the Fed’s near-term policy path. Market expectations are positioned in a Goldilocks range: six cuts represent a middle ground between caution and aggression. Alignment with this trajectory would extend the supportive backdrop for risk assets under looser financial conditions. A deviation in the dot plot, however, would challenge that balance, forcing investors to recalibrate around the risk of tighter-than-expected conditions or a Fed struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth. Beyond the SEP, Powell’s communication will be critical. A firmer stance on inflation would signal restraint in the pace of easing, particularly with price pressures edging higher, tariff policy unsettled and geopolitical risks unresolved. The labor market remains the only area of sustained softness over the past year. In crypto, performance has consistently lagged equities since August. Even if the Fed threads the needle tonight, crypto may continue to underperform relative to equities, despite a backdrop of looser liquidity. @FBGVentures ❤️

The Fed is widely expected to begin its next easing cycle tonight, with markets fully pricing in a 25bp cut that will bring the policy rate to 4.00–4.25%. Given the Fed’s well-telegraphed intention to start cutting in September, investor focus is squarely on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for clarity on the pace and scale of easing through 2026. Current market pricing reflects three cuts in 2025 and an additional three in 2026. Powell’s press conference will provide further details on the Fed’s near-term policy path. Market expectations are positioned in a Goldilocks range: six cuts represent a middle ground between caution and aggression. Alignment with this trajectory would extend the supportive backdrop for risk assets under looser financial conditions. A deviation in the dot plot, however, would challenge that balance, forcing investors to recalibrate around the risk of tighter-than-expected conditions or a Fed struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth. Beyond the SEP, Powell’s communication will be critical. A firmer stance on inflation would signal restraint in the pace of easing, particularly with price pressures edging higher, tariff policy unsettled and geopolitical risks unresolved. The labor market remains the only area of sustained softness over the past year. In crypto, performance has consistently lagged equities since August. Even if the Fed threads the needle tonight, crypto may continue to underperform relative to equities, despite a backdrop of looser liquidity. @FBGVentures ❤️ ❤️

❤️ FBG Capital Daily Update - Sep 16, 2025 🪙 Crypto Momentum: BTC at $115,238 (+0.17%), ETH around $4,661. Spot BTC/ETH ETFs saw $1.1B inflows last week (BTC $642M, ETH $406M), with ETHA hitting $266M single-day record. 💰 Total market cap ~$3.95T. SOL up 15% WoW on ETF filing, DOGE eyes 80% approval odds. APAC on-chain activity +69% YoY. Fear & Greed at 55 (Greed) 🤔 Risk: Fed rhetoric could spark vol if cuts underwhelm. Traditional Markets: S&P 500 ~6,584 (-0.05% Fri), Nasdaq at record 22,141 (+0.44%), Dow lags. 10Y yield ~4.00% pre-Fed. 🌞 Aug CPI +0.4% MoM (headline 2.9% YoY, core 3.1%), hotter than exp but shelter/groceries drove; disinflation stalled in services. Retail sales data today key for Fed path. EM +20% YTD outperforms. Macro Watch: Fed Sep 16-17 meeting today-95% odds for 25bps cut to 4.00-4.25%, 2-3 total cuts priced for '25. Powell may signal data-dependent easing amid labor softness (claims 263K). Tariffs delayed to Oct, ECB holds at 2.1% inflation proj. SEC generic listing rules eyed by late Sep, boosting alt ETF hopes ✅ FBG View:

Constructive pre-Fed-BTC targets $118K if cut confirmed, ETH rotation on $4B Aug inflows. Hedge tails via options; allocate 60% BTC/ETH, 30% alts (SOL/DOGE), 10% stables. Tokenized RWAs yield play amid easing. Nimble positioning key as policy clarity emerges.

@FBGVentures ❤️

❤️ FBG Daily Update - Sep 14, 2025 🟫 Crypto Momentum: btc holds $115,350 (+1.1%), ETH steady at $4,523. US spot BTC ETFs pulled in $553M this week, with total crypto market cap up 1.5% to $4.12T. 🐤 Trading volume spiked 18% to $168B. Solana (+3%) jumped on Galaxy Digital’s $536M buy, DOGE (+10%) rode ETF buzz (80% approval odds) and Elon’s X post. XRP ($3.04) solid with cross-border flows. APAC adoption soared 69% YoY ($2.36T on-chain). Fear & Greed at 50 (neutral). Risk: Sticky inflation or tariff escalation could cap gains. 🏦 Traditional Markets: S&P 500 hit 6,532 (+0.3%), Nasdaq +0.03%, Dow -0.6% on rotation. AI/tech (NVDA +3.9%) leads, 10Y Treasury yield dipped to 4.06%. EM outperforms (+20% YTD vs. World +14%). Gold at highs but lags BTC. Consumer sentiment (55.4) and jobless claims (263K) signal caution, Fed’s 25bps cut priced in, CPI Tue critical. 🌎 Macro Watch: Tariff delays to Oct 14 ease EM pressure (India/Mexico shine). ECB holds, BoJ steady. SEC’s Sep 9 crypto rule tweak lifts sentiment. 🤿 FBG View: Bullish tilt BTC eyes $118K by month-end if CPI cooperates. Hedge via options for tariff/Fed risks. Allocate 60% BTC/ETH, 30% alts (SOL/DOGE), 10% stables. Tokenized RWAs (T-Bills) offer yield. NFA ! @FBGVentures ❤️

❤️ FBG Daily Update - Sep 14, 2025 🟫 Crypto Momentum: btc holds $115,350 (+1.1%), ETH steady at $4,523. US spot BTC ETFs pulled in $553M this week, with total crypto market cap up 1.5% to $4.12T. 🐤 Trading volume spiked 18% to $168B. Solana (+3%) jumped on Galaxy Digital’s $536M buy, DOGE (+10%) rode ETF buzz (80% approval odds) and Elon’s X post. XRP ($3.04) solid with cross-border flows. APAC adoption soared 69% YoY ($2.36T on-chain). Fear & Greed at 50 (neutral). Risk: Sticky inflation or tariff escalation could cap gains. 🏦 Traditional Markets: S&P 500 hit 6,532 (+0.3%), Nasdaq +0.03%, Dow -0.6% on rotation. AI/tech (NVDA +3.9%) leads, 10Y Treasury yield dipped to 4.06%. EM outperforms (+20% YTD vs. World +14%). Gold at highs but lags BTC. Consumer sentiment (55.4) and jobless claims (263K) signal caution, Fed’s 25bps cut priced in, CPI Tue critical. 🌎 Macro Watch: Tariff delays to Oct 14 ease EM pressure (India/Mexico shine). ECB holds, BoJ steady. SEC’s Sep 9 crypto rule tweak lifts sentiment. 🤿 QCP View: Bullish tilt BTC eyes $118K by month-end if CPI cooperates. Hedge via options for tariff/Fed risks. Allocate 60% BTC/ETH, 30% alts (SOL/DOGE), 10% stables. Tokenized RWAs (T-Bills) offer yield. NFA ! @FBGVentures ❤️

🔽Digital asset markets woke to a rout as more than $400m in long positions were liquidated overnight when Bitcoin (BTC) slid from 118k to 115k and Ether (ETH) declined from 4,500 to 4,300. 😨 This heavy selling extends the drawdown from last week, where BTC plummeted about 5% from all‑time highs amid more than $1B+ of liquidations in the DeFi lending space and a wave of profit taking. Although the sharp move during early Asia hours seemed abrupt, funding rates had been warning of trouble. BTC perpetuals across major venues started to trend lower since Friday. 🪙 For example, the BTC funding rate on Deribit, which was consistently above 20% for the past week, turned negative by Saturday and stayed there even as spot drifted higher over the weekend. ⚠️ A similar pattern on 1 August preceded a drop from 118k to 112k. With Jackson Hole this Thursday, some traders believe that the overnight washout reflects de‑risking ahead of the symposium. And with spot still in the middle of the range, we could potentially see more profit‑taking at these levels before the event. ⏰ Options flows are now skewed towards another leg lower as risk reversals have swung in favour of puts across tenors. 🐋 However, despite the recent price action, treasury companies such as Metaplanet remain comfortable buying at these levels; the Tokyo‑listed firm added 775 BTC over the weekend. 📣 Furthermore, with implied vols still relatively low, the market does not expect a major breakout. Sideways trade seems likely, with dips near 112k attracting buyers and rallies toward 120k meeting supply, at least until Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the stage. ⚡ Thursday’s higher‑than‑expected PPI numbers (producer prices jumped 0.9% month‑on‑month against a 0.2% forecast) have complicated the Fed’s policy framework, so the market will be looking for hints on the Fed’s thinking ahead of its September policy meeting. Last year Powell used Jackson Hole to telegraph an easing bias; this year, Trump tariffs and political pressure create a much more contentious backdrop. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

—2025 H1 Market Recap 🚀 Crypto rebounded from a shaky start, with BTC and ETH hitting new highs. 🪙 Stablecoins grew 18 %, tokenized RWAs topped US$25 B, and Circle’s IPO plus Robinhood’s Bitstamp buy signalled rising institutional momentum. 🔥 Fresh U.S. laws (GENIUS, CLARITY) added long-sought regulatory certainty. Looking ahead, our report outlines catalysts for H2 2025: regulatory rollout and licensing guidance, stablecoin adoption by major retailers (Amazon, Walmart and Stripe), and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut that could boost risk appetite across DeFi tokens, alternative L1s and RWA protocols. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

Hot PPI Shakes Markets; Crypto Holds Trend Amid Pullback 🇺🇸 US PPI surprised sharply to the upside in July, rising 0.9% MoM (vs. 0.2% est.) and 3.3% YoY (vs. 2.5%), stoking fears of tariff-driven inflation. 💲 The print lifted the dollar, sent 2Y yields +6 bps to 3.74%, and pushed gold lower, while equities were steady. Odds of a 50 bps September Fed cut have faded, with markets pricing a 92% chance of 25 bps. 🪙 In crypto, BTC slipped from $124k to $117k before recovering near $119k, with risk reversals favoring puts. 🌏 Volatility cooled in Asia hours, pointing to a short-lived positioning flush. BTC dominance fell to 59%, hinting at early altcoin rotation. Despite macro headwinds, the uptrend since April remains, supported by growing corporate adoption and institutional positioning. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

Cooling CPI, ETH Momentum Builds as September Cut Nears 💥 Headline CPI came in at 2.7% vs 2.8% expected; core at 3.1% vs 3.0%. Softer headline inflation boosted odds of a September Fed cut, with markets largely pricing in 25bps. Goods inflation cooled despite expectations of a pickup. 📊 Rate-cut bets for 2025 remain ~60bps, and the terminal rate stays steady. Futures suggest a 3% Fed floor in 2026. With key risks fading, equities hit fresh highs. 🚫 TACO extended the US–China tariff pause by 90 days, while Ukraine–Russia tensions eased, with peace now the base case. 📱 In crypto, ETH nears ATH, sparking long-term holder euphoria. Bitmine’s ETH treasury build drew attention — ETH’s smaller market cap means inflows hit harder than BTC. 🔝 Momentum looks set to continue as flows into ETH DATs persist. Next up: Jackson Hole, where the Fed is expected to signal readiness for a 25bp September cut. Only one CPI and one NFP remain before the meeting, unlikely to shift the outlook. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

—Buy the Dip, Sell the News 💸 BTC blasted past $122k over the weekend, erasing last week’s losses, with ETH up 21% to $4.3k - first time since 2021. 🔇 Stocks and crypto moved in lockstep, both shrugging off tariffs and macro noise. ‼️ Focus now: Tuesday’s CPI (+10 bps to 2.8% expected). Soft print could seal a September Fed cut; hot data may stall the rally. Options flow shows hedging with $115k–$118k BTC puts and short-call covering. 🐂 ETF inflows and institutional demand remain key. Some profit-taking likely near highs, but market resilience keeps the bias bullish. Events: Tue CPI, Thu PPI & Jobless Claims, Fri Retail Sales. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

Youbi Asia Colour – 30 July 2025 Bitcoin remains tightly rangebound, struggling to convincingly break above the $120k level, while persistent buying interest around $116k continues to provide support. Ether’s rally also appears to be losing steam as it approaches the psychological $4k resistance, with momentum indicators turning increasingly neutral. From a structural standpoint, continued institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments suggest that new highs remain a strong possibility over the medium term. Ongoing accumulation efforts by institutional players such as Strategy (MSTR) and SharpLink Gaming (SBET), both of whom continue to raise capital for BTC purchases, underscore long-term conviction in the asset. However, caution is warranted. Price action has failed to respond meaningfully to a string of positive headlines, including the passage of crypto-supportive regulation in the US and constructive developments around spot and derivatives ETFs. Historically, markets that stall despite bullish news flow often signal short-term exhaustion. A lack of follow-through on good news is textbook late-cycle behaviour. Turning to global macro, we see potential near-term risks emerging from overcrowded positioning in USD shorts. The consensus narrative for much of 2025 has revolved around a weaker Dollar, catalysed by the ongoing Tariff War, but with the Dollar already down 10% year-to-date, we question how much further it can fall. CFTC data shows traders extremely short USDJPY, a position that is not only consensus but also expensive to fund over time. In our view, the market is increasingly vulnerable to a short squeeze in the Dollar, which could force risk-off unwinds across equities, EM, and crypto alike. Meanwhile, the Tariff War rumbles on. Although the US and EU have reached a tentative truce, tensions persist elsewhere. President Trump has pushed for a resolution to the Ukraine–Russia conflict, but the global policy community has largely faded these efforts, expecting him to ultimately back down. We now pivot to upcoming macro data, particularly US inflation and employment prints, which will be pivotal in determining how the third quarter unfolds. With tariff effects set to feed into corporate margins and consumer prices, Q3 could mark a meaningful inflection point. All eyes are on the Fed. We expect a hold at the July FOMC, with policymakers likely to emphasise data dependence ahead of the critical September meeting, where odds for a rate cut remain finely balanced. @Youbi_Capital ❤️

Youbi Asia Colour – 16 July 2025 🪙 The BTC party took a brief pause after surging past the $120k mark, triggering profit-taking flows that began to cap the momentum BTC had built over the past week. The asset eventually found a local bottom at $114k, where bids re-emerged to support price. 🔊 With summer holidays fast approaching, we are seeing a seasonal slowdown in trading volumes across TradFi markets. At the same time, US equities have stalled, struggling to extend gains since early July. This sideways drift could be a signal of exhaustion. Equities have so far shrugged off a cocktail of headwinds, from elevated base tariff levels to fresh threats targeting nations purchasing Russian oil. Of note, the S&P 500’s recent gains have been disproportionately powered by NVDA. While the rest of the Magnificent Seven continue to edge higher, NVDA has carved out fresh record highs since July, directly mirroring the index’s most recent push to new peaks. 💬 Meanwhile, the DXY remains down 10% year-to-date, a trend that has fuelled strong performance across USD-denominated assets. This includes US equities, gold, and Bitcoin. Adjusted for dollar weakness, these assets are trading at levels that, in real terms, remain below prior highs. With net USD positioning turning short, though not yet stretched, the risk of a sharp USD rebound has increased. This could lead to a corresponding correction in risk assets. 🔽 US inflation appears to have stalled at 2.5%, showing little sign of softening further. Markets remain vulnerable to exogenous price shocks, particularly given the current inflation plateau. While the Fed continues to guide towards potential rate cuts next quarter, these developments introduce uncertainty into the timing of any potential policy pivot by the Fed. 🐂 We maintain a structurally bullish stance on BTC. However, a pullback toward $110k, which marked the previous cycle high, may provide a more stable foundation for the current rally to consolidate. ETH has also been showing relative strength, supported by SBET’s treasury diversification efforts and increased ETH accumulation by other corporates following their lead. @Youbi_Capital ❤️