QCP Capital

🏙 Youbi Asia Colour - 14 July 2025 Altcoin Surge Ignites Bitcoin’s holding strong at $124,000 💍, but the spotlight’s shifting as altcoins catch fire, hinting at an altcoin season brewing 🔥 Macro Driver No. 1: Capital Rotation Accelerates With Bitcoin consolidating after its $118,000 peak, capital is flowing into altcoins 💵💵💵. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are leading the charge, with trading volumes spiking 20% week-on-week. The Altcoin Season Index hit 78 today, with 38 of the top 50 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days. ETH/BTC broke above 0.066, signaling a shift to risk-on sentiment. Macro Driver No. 2: Liquidity Boosts Risk Assets ⬆️ Easing U.S. monetary policy - whispers of Fed rate cuts by Q4 - has markets buzzing. Loose conditions are fueling speculative bets, with DeFi tokens like AAVE and UNI posting double-digit gains. The total altcoin market cap climbed to $1.2 trillion, testing key resistance at $1.3 trillion. Caribbean hubs like the Cayman Islands are seeing record inflows into crypto funds, amplifying the rally. FOMO or Fundamentals? XRP’s 9% jump, Solana’s sprint to $216, and ADA’s breakout are stoking FOMO. On-chain data shows whale accumulation in layer-1 and AI-driven tokens like FET and GRT. One trader summed it up:

This isn’t just hype - it’s the market picking winners

🪙 But with Bitcoin dominance still at 64%, selectivity is key. @Youbi_Capital 🌄

🌠 Youbi Asia Colour - 14 July 2025 Surging Forward Bitcoin cracked $124,000 overnight 🚀, carving fresh highs as market momentum dovetails with deep-seated drivers. Macro Driver No. 1: Geopolitical Jitters Spark Trade Hustle 🇺🇸🇪🇺 Heightened U.S.-EU trade talks and looming sanctions on key commodity exporters have businesses scrambling. Firms are fast-tracking shipments and hoarding critical inputs like cobalt and nickel to dodge disruptions 🛡. This rush has swelled trade credit and kept global logistics buzzing, with container freight rates holding firm. Will cooler heads prevail in negotiations? Too early to call. But the scramble has juiced industrial activity, with global manufacturing PMIs in expansion mode. Aluminum prices, a proxy for construction and tech demand, are spiking as supply chains tighten. Macro Driver No. 2: Fiscal Flood Keeps Markets Afloat U.S. deficit spending is a relentless growth engine ⚙️. Massive outlays on AI infrastructure and defense contracts are flooding the economy with liquidity, even as the Fed keeps rates elevated. This cash surge is bolstering consumer spending while inflation stays tame, creating a Goldilocks backdrop. The Treasury’s nimble strategy - issuing short-term bills to retire longer-dated bonds - caps borrowing costs and tamps down yield volatility. The VIX is subdued, corporate bond spreads are narrow, and risk assets have room to run. Mega-cap tech and pension funds are channeling windfalls into markets, from stocks to digital assets. Hype or New Normal? With green tech indices and industrial metals hitting records, Bitcoin and tokenized assets are catching the same wave. Institutional flows into crypto ETFs and blockchain-based securities are outpacing new token supply, with wallet accumulation trends signaling conviction 🦾. As long as ETF premiums and tokenized asset valuations hold, the market’s bid remains rock-solid. @Youbi_Capital 🌄

📣 Multiple Network: 500K+ nodes globally, using P2P and SD-WAN for decentralized AI and data privacy. Ensures high bandwidth, low latency, encryption for secure, efficient AI model training. Supports dApps, data transfer. https://multiple-network.gitbook.io/multiple-network @Youbi_Capital 🌄

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 30 June 2025 Bitcoin shrugged off its typical June drag with a last-minute rally during early Asia hours ⬆️, catching up to equities that ended last week at fresh all-time highs 🔥. The move was partially fuelled by renewed optimism in Washington, as President Trump’s US$4.5 trillion tax bill cleared a key procedural hurdle in the Senate over the weekend 🙂. Attention now turns to the decisive 9am ET vote today, with Republicans aiming to finalise the bill ahead of the 4 July deadline 📊 Despite persistent geopolitical cross-currents, institutional flows remain resilient. BTC spot ETFs recorded another week of inflows, this time totalling US$2.2 billion, which underscores continued demand from large allocators. Heavyweights such as Strategy and Metaplanet maintained their accumulation pace, reinforcing the constructive tone 😌 With BTC spot edging toward $108k, we’re beginning to see a build-up in leveraged longs as perpetual funding rates flip from flat to positive across major exchanges 🔼. Positioning appears to be chasing the move, as participants lean into directional bets ahead of quarter-end. Ethereum and Solana also joined the rally overnight, buoyed by anticipation around REX Shares’ proposed ETH and SOL staking ETFs. Positive feedback from the SEC has stirred renewed optimism that such products could gain approval. This would offer institutions another avenue to extract yield from crypto basis and staking strategies. Yet beneath the surface of this bullish price action, options markets remain subdued. Risk Reversals are flat across most tenors, and implied vols continue to hover near historical lows. For now, spot below $110k appears uninspiring, while $100k, just a week ago, already feels like a distant memory ⏳ @QCP_Capital 🔥

🚀 We've partnered with Nasdaq to set a new standard of capital efficiency. Following our strategic investment in the Canton Network, QCP has completed a first-of-its-kind pilot with Nasdaq—integrating on-chain collateral and margin workflows into Nasdaq’s Calypso platform. The solution was developed in collaboration with Primrose Capital Management and Digital Asset. This milestone reflects more than just technical progress. It marks QCP’s evolution from backing institutional digital asset infrastructure to actively building and deploying it alongside some of the most respected names in global finance. The pilot demonstrates the viability of 24/7 capital deployment and real-time risk management across both traditional and digital markets—bringing us closer to a fully interoperable financial system. See how this pilot brings our vision to life → QCP Insights

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 26 June 2025 War Drums Fade, Risk Appetite Roars Despite Israel resuming limited strikes just hours after a tentative ceasefire, financial markets barely blinked. Traders appeared to have priced in a resolution or simply stopped waiting for one. Instead of flight-to-safety, the move was risk-on in full force. The Nasdaq 100 clocked fresh record highs, while the S&P 500 ended less than 1% shy of its all-time closing peak from February 2020. Oil prices have now fully retraced back to pre-conflict levels, further fuelling the shift in sentiment. Among S&P 500 constituents, Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) staged the standout performance, surging 12% on Tuesday to close at $344.94. This marked its highest level in over six months. Two major regulatory breakthroughs lit the fuse: 1. The GENIUS Act, a landmark U.S. bill that introduces a long-awaited stablecoin framework. This brings long-overdue compliance clarity and paves the way for institutional adoption. 2. MiCA Milestone: Coinbase secured formal approval from Luxembourg’s financial regulator, making it the first major U.S. crypto exchange authorized under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime. The licence gives Coinbase a key regulatory beachhead across the European Union. Elsewhere, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to accelerate. Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap fund drew attention with a $386 million BTC purchase. This represents an explicit strategy to hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Since the start of June, the number of corporates holding BTC on their balance sheets has nearly doubled. Over 240 firms now own a combined 3.45 million BTC. If this accumulation trend persists, Bitcoin may not just rival gold as a macro hedge but potentially in total market capitalisation. Yet geopolitics remains an ever-present undercurrent. Concerns around a potential NATO-Russia flashpoint are building, as European defence officials warn of the risk of armed conflict within five years. Russia is significantly ramping up military production, far exceeding Ukraine war requirements, while modernising nuclear infrastructure in Kaliningrad and fortifying western bases. In response, NATO allies are weighing an increase in defence spending to 3.5% of GDP. All eyes will be on The Hague, where Donald Trump is set to attend the NATO summit and is likely to reaffirm support for Article 5. In this environment, the traditional risk premium is shifting from a hedge to a baseline assumption. With macro, military and monetary crosscurrents colliding, the market’s ability to discount geopolitical volatility is being tested like never before. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 24 June 2025 Make Volatility Great Again? 🪙 BTC briefly dipped below $100k on Sunday, falling 6% to a low of $98.2k. This marked its lowest print since breaching the $100k psychological level on 8 May. The selloff extended across major altcoins, catalyzed by Iran’s threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would severely disrupt global oil flows. BTC’s reclaim of $100k this morning suggests that the weekend drawdown was macro-driven, with investors turning to crypto as a hedge while awaiting equity futures to open. The move was amplified by thin liquidity conditions, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations across the market 🔥 🇮🇷 While Iran has vowed retaliation, markets appear to be discounting the likelihood of a major escalation. The US is pressuring China diplomatically to rein in Tehran, and that geopolitical backchanneling seems to be having a calming effect. Put skew remains elevated through September, but the strong spot bounce and compression in frontend vols signal that investors are largely dismissing broader contagion risks for now. The same tone is echoed in traditional markets. US stock futures, oil and gold initially reacted to the headlines, but have since retraced to Friday levels. This suggests that investors are interpreting the situation as a regional flashpoint rather than a global risk event Still, BTC is consolidating near the $100k level even after a flush in leveraged longs. This makes the next few sessions particularly important. The market remains at an inflection point, with digital assets straddling the line between risk-on momentum and risk-off defensiveness amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty 🌐 Key Events to Watch Mon (23 Jun): US PMI Tue (24 Jun): Fed Chair Powell Speech Wed (25 Jun): Fed Chair Powell Speech Thu (26 Jun): US GDP and Unemployment Data Fri (27 Jun): US Core PCE @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 19 June 2025 Joyful June Joever: Summertime Blues As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve held benchmark rates steady. However, the Committee maintained its hawkish stance, noting that near-term inflation expectations remain elevated, with tariffs cited as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a “wait and see” approach, pending greater clarity on inflation’s trajectory. Within macro circles, there is growing debate over the resilience of the labor market. Some expect that a continued softening in employment and economic activity will eventually lead the Fed to pivot dovish. Yet so far, the data tells a different story, as the US economy remains robust, underpinned by steady job creation and resilient consumption. Geopolitics Take a Backseat as Crude Consolidates Meanwhile, markets are increasingly desensitised to geopolitical headlines, including ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite US President Trump’s repeated assertions that a new Iranian nuclear deal is in progress, crude benchmarks have traded firmly within a narrow consolidation band. Implied volatility in oil has faded, retreating from recent highs. Importantly, surging oil prices and any resultant inflation would undercut President Trump’s ambitions for lower interest rates and bond yields ahead of the election. The incentive is clear: striking a deal with Iran would be politically expedient. Global Trade Tensions Build Ahead of Key Tariff Deadlines On trade, the clock is ticking. With the 9 July tariff deadline (marking the end of the EU’s tariff pause) looming, the US has concluded just one trade agreement out of nearly 195 potential partners. Negotiations remain stagnant, and leaks have become repetitive. Markets may now be less reactive to incremental tariff headlines. However, the timeline remains key: - 14 July: The EU is expected to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods - 12 August: The 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs with China ends - 31 August: Expiry of longstanding tariff exclusions on Chinese imports These upcoming dates could inject episodic downside volatility into risk assets. That said, our base case remains constructive. With aligned incentives on both sides, we see a stable outcome to US-China trade talks as the more probable path, a backdrop that would support the ongoing rally across risk markets. Crypto Markets Reflect Seasonal Sluggishness Seasonality is also starting to play its part. Historically, summer months are marked by muted activity and lower volatility, and crypto markets are following suit. BTC front-end implied vols have dipped below 40%, erasing the spike from recent geopolitical jitters. Risk reversals remain negative, with BTC puts trading at a premium to calls, pointing to cautious positioning and expectations for near-term pullbacks. With US markets closed today, month-end OPEX, rebalancing flows, and systematic deleveraging continue to dominate price action, contributing to the sluggish tone across crypto markets. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 19 June 2025 Unconditional Surrender The Israeli–Iranian conflict enters its sixth day, with missile exchanges continuing unabated and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight. G7 leaders have issued multiple appeals urging Iran to re-engage in nuclear negotiations with the United States. These talks were slated for this Sunday but now appear unlikely. Markets are increasingly focused on a potential realignment in Middle Eastern power structures, and the implications this may have for regional geopolitics as the US, Russia and China are all involved by proxy. Of immediate concern is the Strait of Hormuz. If Tehran is cornered, a disruption or full blockade of this critical chokepoint becomes a credible tail risk. The strait accounts for a significant share of global crude oil flows, and any supply shock would have a pronounced inflationary impact. President Trump has taken an especially hawkish stance, publicly calling for Iran’s "Unconditional Surrender". With much of Iran's military leadership under strain and key installations neutralised, market consensus appears to lean towards a capitulation, either partial or total, to Israeli and US demands. Nevertheless, the outcome remains highly uncertain. Ultimately, whichever way it goes, the spice must flow. This geopolitical stress is layered atop an already fraught global macro environment, marked by stubbornly elevated inflation and a global reset in tariff regimes. The so-called Tariff War may have fizzled with little fanfare, but investor attention has swiftly migrated to the Middle East. The FOMC Meets Tonight With geo-conflict flaring and inflationary pressures gradually rising, the FOMC convenes tonight under challenging circumstances. First tariffs, now missiles. This is no ordinary inflation fight. Our expectation is for the Fed to hold rates steady while striking a hawkish tone, acknowledging the fresh upside risks to inflation stemming from geopolitical instability. The market currently prices in two rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026. However, our base case is that the Fed may adopt a more cautious tone in its SEP, potentially indicating a single rate cut for 2025, in contrast to market pricing. Such a revision would likely pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin and broader digital assets, as liquidity expectations are pared back @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 17 June 2025 💥 Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, BTC is yet to show signs of full-blown panic. Following initial jitters triggered by Iran-Israel headlines last Friday 🇮🇷🇮🇱, the benchmark cryptocurrency has since clawed back losses, recovering from weekly lows of $102.8k to $107k. A similar rebound unfolded across major large-cap tokens and US equity futures ⬆️ BTC’s resilient price action appears underpinned by continued institutional accumulation 🐋. Notably, Metaplanet and Strategy have persisted in buying the dip, while spot BTC ETFs recorded their seventh consecutive week of inflows. The market seems to have rediscovered its footing, particularly after BTC held above the key psychological threshold of $100k despite the initial shock. Crucially, Friday’s modest 3% pullback paled in comparison to April last year, when BTC fell more than 8% amid similar Iran-Israel turmoil 😱 More broadly, markets appear remarkably composed in the face of rising geopolitical risk. BTC frontend implied vols remain below 40, while the VIX hovers near 20. Both levels are historically subdued given the backdrop. US Treasuries and a swath of Asian government bonds have seen inflows, underscoring that markets have not fully pivoted into risk-off mode just yet. ⚠️Still, undercurrents of caution persist. A potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could spark a surge in oil prices 🛢, while further escalation or direct US military involvement could severely disrupt global risk assets. Ironically, some argue that these very risks could prove structurally bullish for BTC. With the asset trading just under 6% off its all-time highs, recent price behaviour reinforces the narrative that BTC adoption is being fuelled by macro dislocation, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical fragility. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 13 June 2025 Inching Towards a Truce: US-China Trade Dynamics Evolve Markets welcomed a tentative step forward in US-China relations, with President Trump announcing a partial rollback of proposed tariff hikes, reverting to a baseline structure of 55% comprising 10% reciprocal tariffs, 20% fentanyl-related levies, and the 25% tariff legacy from his first term. The deal is reportedly in its final stages, pending formal endorsement from both Presidents Xi and Trump. Yet optimism remains tempered. US Commerce Secretary signalled a hard line on tech exports, stating unequivocally that the US will “not give China their best chips.” This underscores a bifurcation in global supply chains that markets are increasingly pricing into cross-border trade dynamics. Middle East Escalations Overshadow Asia Relief Geopolitical nerves flared anew as the US began withdrawing diplomatic staff in the Middle East amid faltering nuclear negotiations. Washington was reportedly warned of a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites, triggering a sharp response in oil markets. Brent crude surged between 7-9 % intraday, while risk assets sold off as investors repositioned into defensive stances. Policy Chess: Bessent Talks Trade, Teases Fed Rumours Testifying before the House on budget and trade priorities, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a possible delay to President Trump’s July 8 tariff deadline, citing ongoing negotiations with major economies. At the same time, he made a vigorous pitch for the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, aimed at revitalizing US industrial competitiveness. Speculation around Bessent being groomed to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell gathered steam, only to be quickly downplayed. Bessent publicly reaffirmed his commitment to remain at the Treasury through 2029. Meanwhile, following softer than expected US CPI data, President Trump once again pressured the Fed to slash interest rates by “one full point”, citing the unsustainable burden of elevated debt servicing costs. Digital Assets: Institutions Step In Crypto continues to attract institutional flows: - GameStop’s 1.75 billion dollar convertible senior note offering may include Bitcoin allocation, as firms turn to crypto for balance sheet diversification. - Ethereum ETFs saw 18 straight days of net inflows, while validator queue participation continues rising, underscoring conviction in ETH’s yield framework. - Solana ETFs may soon follow, with the SEC requesting S-1 amendments, hinting at potential approval within weeks. - Crypto M&A and IPO activity has picked up, reflecting renewed venture and strategic interest. Despite a modest pullback, macro conditions remain constructive for further institutional engagement and capital deployment into digital assets. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 10 June 2025 BTC led a euphoric surge overnight, rallying from $107K to above $110K 🚀, as US-China trade talks resumed in London. The move was initially driven by optimism following headlines suggesting progress, though market enthusiasm quickly waned. Despite vague affirmations from US officials, with terms like “fruitful” and “good meeting” dominating the post-talks rhetoric, the absence of substantive breakthroughs saw global risk assets pause. For now, markets remain in limbo. With US CPI data scheduled for release tomorrow, investors are treading cautiously. The risk is that continued diplomatic ambiguity morphs into a headwind for broader risk sentiment. Notably, a cryptic social media commentary by CCTV stoked speculation that the talks were less constructive than portrayed. This was reflected in gold’s intraday rebound and a striking 26% rally in China Rare Earth Holdings, reinforcing the sector’s role as a persistent geopolitical lever. Ethereum Steps into the Spotlight 🪙 As BTC responds to macro-political theatre, ETH is quietly reclaiming narrative dominance. Implied volatility on Ethereum has climbed, with front-end at-the-money vols pushing into the low 70s, while options skew flipped sharply in favour of calls, rising by 5 to 6 points. Elevated perpetual funding rates reinforce the bullish tone. ETF flows are further validating this sentiment shift. ETH logged $281 million in inflows last week, with another $52.7 million added yesterday, pointing to renewed institutional interest. This rotation suggests a broadening thesis, from Bitcoin as digital gold to Ethereum as the infrastructure layer for real-world assets 💯 Looking ahead, macro tailwinds are aligning for ETH. With the GENIUS Act advancing in the US Senate, Circle’s IPO discussions resurfacing, and stablecoins gaining regulatory traction, Ethereum’s native role in tokenization and settlement rails may be primed for outsized structural upside. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 10 June 2025 Implied vols continue to come under pressure, with BTC stuck in a tight range as summer approaches ☀️. While implied vols at 1-year lows appear optically cheap, realised volatility is even lower. Historical data over the past two years suggest that frontend vols tend to drift further into July. We saw this pattern play out around the same time last year, when 1-month ATM vols collapsed from 80v in March to 40v by July, coinciding with BTC’s repeated failures to decisively breach the $70k level. A clean break below $100k or above $110k would likely reawaken broader market interest, but we currently see no obvious near-term catalyst to drive such a move. Recent macro headlines have produced knee-jerk reactions, but these have largely been dismissed as noise and quickly faded, which has been insufficient to trigger a directional breakout. Even as US equities rallied and gold sold off in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, BTC remained conspicuously unmoved, caught in the cross-currents without a clear macro anchor. Without a compelling narrative to spark the next leg higher, signs of fatigue are emerging. Perpetual open interest is softening, and spot BTC ETF inflows have started to taper. Options flows over the past week reflect this indecision. We’ve seen notable rolls of July topside strikes further out to September, and in meaningful size, suggesting investors are pushing their bullish timelines further down the curve. Key Events to Watch: Wednesday: US CPI Thursday: US PPI, Unemployment Claims @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 5 June 2025 Joyful June: Markets Stay Resilient Despite Data Misses 🌞 Despite a batch of disappointing US macro data overnight, including weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures and a soft ISM print, risk assets held their ground, underscoring the market’s enduring resilience 🦾 In characteristic fashion, President Trump wasted no time in pivoting blame, criticising Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for failing to cut rates and accusing the Fed of falling behind the ECB. Just hours later, Trump doubled down, tweeting that the US debt ceiling should be permanently abolished. This was a clear nod to the growing narrative of fiscal dominance that continues to buoy risk sentiment 🤨 Adding fuel to the fire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant unveiled the “Big Beautiful Bill,” promising 100% tax expensing for new US manufacturing and R&D hubs. All eyes now turn to July 4, when Congress will vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBB) and address the debt ceiling, likely through either suspension or a hike by August. Institutional Adoption Ramps Up as JPM Validates Crypto Collateral Momentum in institutional crypto adoption continues to gather pace. JPMorgan has greenlit the use of crypto ETFs as collateral for loans across its retail, trading, and wealth management arms, formally recognising crypto as part of a client’s net worth and balance sheet. This marks a significant validation moment for the asset class. Listed corporates are also joining the movement. K Wave Media and Treasure Global are the latest to announce allocations to crypto treasuries, following a trend that is fast becoming a pillar of treasury diversification. Meanwhile, Circle Internet Financial has officially filed for IPO, targeting an FDV between $7.6 billion and $8.1 billion. In parallel, rumours are swirling around a token launch from a prominent Solana-based memecoin launchpad, suggesting retail euphoria remains alive and well under the surface. Flows Slow but Fundamentals Remain Constructive After a record-breaking May, spot ETF inflows have decelerated modestly. On 4 June, spot BTC ETF inflows totalled $87 million, while ETH ETF flows came in at $57 million. Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact. With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable. Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply. ETH, in particular, looks firm, testing its 200D moving average repeatedly without forming lower lows. ETHBTC remains near 0.025, reflecting relative strength in ETH as the pair trades close to range highs. Positioning for Breakouts: Bullish Structures Gain Traction With fiscal catalysts continuing to tilt macro conditions in BTC’s favour, any upside breakout could carry us past all-time highs. Bullish September ERKO Seagulls offer zero-to-low cost participation in this scenario, serving as an efficient structure for capturing asymmetrical upside. Some institutional flows appear to agree. Demand for September 130k BTC calls is percolating, hinting at growing conviction behind a bullish breakout narrative. @QCP_Capital 🔥

QCP Asia Colour – 5 June 2025 Joyful June: Markets Stay Resilient Despite Data Misses Despite a batch of disappointing US macro data overnight, including weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures and a soft ISM print, risk assets held their ground, underscoring the market’s enduring resilience. In characteristic fashion, President Trump wasted no time in pivoting blame, criticising Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for failing to cut rates and accusing the Fed of falling behind the ECB. Just hours later, Trump doubled down, tweeting that the US debt ceiling should be permanently abolished. This was a clear nod to the growing narrative of fiscal dominance that continues to buoy risk sentiment. Adding fuel to the fire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant unveiled the “Big Beautiful Bill,” promising 100% tax expensing for new US manufacturing and R&D hubs. All eyes now turn to July 4, when Congress will vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBB) and address the debt ceiling, likely through either suspension or a hike by August. Institutional Adoption Ramps Up as JPM Validates Crypto Collateral Momentum in institutional crypto adoption continues to gather pace. JPMorgan has greenlit the use of crypto ETFs as collateral for loans across its retail, trading, and wealth management arms, formally recognising crypto as part of a client’s net worth and balance sheet. This marks a significant validation moment for the asset class. Listed corporates are also joining the movement. K Wave Media and Treasure Global are the latest to announce allocations to crypto treasuries, following a trend that is fast becoming a pillar of treasury diversification. Meanwhile, Circle Internet Financial has officially filed for IPO, targeting an FDV between $7.6 billion and $8.1 billion. In parallel, rumours are swirling around a token launch from a prominent Solana-based memecoin launchpad, suggesting retail euphoria remains alive and well under the surface. Flows Slow but Fundamentals Remain Constructive After a record-breaking May, spot ETF inflows have decelerated modestly. On 4 June, spot BTC ETF inflows totalled $87 million, while ETH ETF flows came in at $57 million. Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact. With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable. Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply. ETH, in particular, looks firm, testing its 200D moving average repeatedly without forming lower lows. ETHBTC remains near 0.025, reflecting relative strength in ETH as the pair trades close to range highs. Positioning for Breakouts: Bullish Structures Gain Traction With fiscal catalysts continuing to tilt macro conditions in BTC’s favour, any upside breakout could carry us past all-time highs. Bullish September ERKO Seagulls offer zero-to-low cost participation in this scenario, serving as an efficient structure for capturing asymmetrical upside. Some institutional flows appear to agree. Demand for September 130k BTC calls is percolating, hinting at growing conviction behind a bullish breakout narrative.

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 4 June 2025 A surprise uptick in job openings buoyed risk sentiment ahead of Friday’s pivotal payrolls print, with the S&P 500 edging closer to the psychologically important 6,000 level. A steady NFP would cement the Fed’s narrative of a resilient labour market, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain on hold 🔴 On the trade front, markets remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of the anticipated Xi-Trump talks 🇨🇳🇺🇸. BTC front-end vols have eased, with spot pinned around the familiar $105K handle; 1M implieds have slipped below 40v. In rates, Chinese 10Y and 30Y government bond futures volumes have fallen to their lowest since February, reflecting broader risk aversion and sidelined positioning. BTC continues to trade rangebound, with light positioning and a normalized skew suggesting little directional conviction. The vol curve has flattened from mid to back end since May, mirroring a similar decline in VIX, and has prompted opportunistic long-vega trades. Notably, September $130K calls were lifted at 47v, pointing to pockets of topside interest heading into Q3. Looking ahead, Q3 could prove more challenging 😌. Tariff-related impacts may begin filtering into macro data, while fiscal risks surrounding the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) and the debt ceiling introduce potential headline volatility 📈. In the absence of a clear catalyst, BTC is unlikely to break materially out of its current range. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 2 June 2025 BTC: Still Top of the Pecking Order? ☹️ The acronym TACO ('Trump Always Chickens Out') might not sit well with the president. Friday's headlines suggest he’s out to prove the critics wrong 🤨. In a sharp escalation, the US announced expanded tech sanctions on China and doubled steel tariffs to 50%, triggering a broad-based risk-off move across global markets. The crypto market wasn’t spared, with nearly $1 billion in positions liquidated since Friday 📉. Even BlackRock’s IBIT BTC ETF snapped its record 34-day inflow streak, logging $430 million in outflows 😨. And yet, BTC has remained remarkably composed. While some investors fled, others doubled down. Strategy and Metaplanet are certainly not among the faint-hearted 😉. Metaplanet scooped up another $114 million in BTC post-selloff, pushing their total holdings to a symbolic 8,888 BTC 🤑 Despite the volatility, BTC continues to hover above $102k, a testament to underlying support 👍. Volatility on the frontend has steadily compressed, and risk reversals have begun to normalise across tenors. This signals expectations for muted price action in the near term. Perp funding has turned flat, reflecting the recent flush in leveraged positions, including those held by James Wynn 💸 😐 Looking ahead, tariff tensions will likely dominate the macro narrative through June, with meaningful policy deadlines only kicking in from 8 July. In the absence of fresh catalysts, BTC could remain rangebound, with the $100k and $110k levels critical to watch given their status as strikes with the highest month-end open interest. Key Events to Watch: Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by Powell’s speech Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Thursday: US Unemployment Claims Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 28 May 2025 Volatility across most asset classes continues to drift lower, as markets enter a lull amid a dearth of meaningful news flow and macroeconomic data 🤫. The news cycle remains relentless, yet markets appear increasingly inured to negative developments, brushing off headlines that might once have sparked more significant reactions 💥 U.S. bond yields have eased following last week’s fiscal stir sparked 🔽 by the so-called “big, beautiful bill.” Nevertheless, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains perched above 120%, with the new bill projected to tack on another $3.8 trillion to the national debt ➕ ⏱ Yields on the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries have slipped below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, while Japan’s 30-year JGB yield has retreated under 3%. These levels are still historically elevated 🌄. However, the immediate risks have abated for now. 👀 All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions in June for the 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds. Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Finance is set to issue 40-year JGBs today, with the 30-year tranche scheduled for next week 🔜. The MOF is acutely aware of the market's reluctance to absorb long-dated paper and appears poised to tweak issuance strategies to dampen volatility at the long end of the curve ✍️ Ironically, we now find ourselves in a Goldilocks zone: recent data prints remain largely unaffected by the tariff policy introduced last month 🚫. It will take time for companies and consumers to adjust pricing and spending patterns. Only in Q3 are we likely to see these dynamics reflected in the numbers 💯. The Federal Reserve seems to concur, choosing to discount near-term data unless the economy deteriorates sharply. And while “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas,” this time, policymakers hope otherwise 👉. Senator Lummis’s wide-ranging remarks on stablecoins and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve have rekindled hopes for substantive crypto policy movement 🚀. Since the inauguration, progress on digital asset initiatives has been tepid. The Conference may offer the jolt needed to revive White House engagement 🔥 👍 Trump Media, for its part, is reportedly planning to raise $2.5 billion and join the ranks of corporates building a Bitcoin Reserve. If momentum builds out of the conference, we could see more firms follow the lead of Strategy and Metaplanet, offering a fresh structural bid in the market. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 27 May 2025 Bitcoin's reaction to last Friday’s macro developments was relatively restrained 👍, even as equities rallied sharply. Institutional demand for spot ETFs remained steady, offering underlying support. Still, front-end implied volatility held firm, with BTC consolidating in a tight $107k to $110k range. The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk ahead of the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas 📍, scheduled for 27 to 29 May. Focus is already building around the event’s speaker line-up, which includes JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump 🗣 Last July’s Nashville Bitcoin Conference offers a useful analogue. At the time, a keynote by President Trump coincided with a sharp spike in 1-day implied vols above 90, followed by a swift reversal and a nearly 30% decline in BTC within two days. That episode continues to shape market memory 🧠 🤔 While the probability of a similar drawdown appears low, positioning suggests a defensive tilt. Perpetuals open interest has declined 🔽 and funding rates have normalised over the past 24 hours. Some high-beta retail traders, including James Wynn, have also scaled back exposure. Demand for short-dated downside remains in focus 👀 Against that backdrop, reports of Trump Media exploring a $3 billion dollar crypto raise, though denied, have added to headline sensitivity. In our view, BTC is likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Once the event passes and key speeches conclude, front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 26 May 2025 Risk sentiment remains in flux 📊. After a steady climb in risk assets since late April and with the S&P 500 edging toward the symbolic 6,000 mark amid declining volatility, President Trump abruptly reignited trade tensions 💢, proposing a steep 50% tariff on EU goods (up from the previous 20%). The timing has not gone unnoticed, given the market's elevated levels. Markets, however, managed to stabilise after Trump announced an extension of the tariff implementation deadline to 9 July 😉. European equities and U.S. futures opened higher this morning, though the episode serves as a sharp reminder of how swiftly policy risk can reprice calm into chaos 😕. The BTC July to June vol spread, which topped 2 vols last week, has now compressed to under 1, a signal that the market may be bracing for another policy pivot ahead of the new deadline 🔜 Inflation continues to frame the macro narrative. All eyes are on this Friday’s PCE print, a critical gauge for the Fed’s next steps. 🛢 While oil prices have eased, rising port congestion in Europe is beginning to spill over into Asia and the U.S., threatening to lift shipping costs and trigger fresh, indirect inflationary pressures ‼️ ⭐️BTC dipped to $106K over the weekend, but snapped back to $110K 💪, underpinned by persistent spot ETF inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT has now logged 30 consecutive days of net inflows, reinforcing the growing institutional foothold in digital assets. What’s particularly notable is the divergence between crypto and tech equity sentiment. While digital assets hold firm, outflows from the TQQQ NASDAQ ETF since early April suggest investors are rotating or hedging despite the strength in broader equities. 🍽️ In a world of erratic policymaking, crypto increasingly looks like the grown-up at the table @QCP_Capital 🔥