QCP Capital

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 23 May 2025 ATH Again and Again 😄 Bitcoin surged to another all-time high at $109.6K during the U.S. equity open, before retreating alongside risk assets in the wake of a weak $16B 20-year Treasury auction, which cleared above 5%. Yet BTC’s resilience proved exceptional. It mounted a sharp V-shaped recovery, notching a fresh high above $111.5K during Asia trading hours 🔥 Now firmly in price discovery mode, BTC’s trajectory diverges sharply from gold 🌉, which has stalled at a lower high near $3,300/oz. While some near-term volatility is likely, front-end implied vols remain well-supported just below 50v. Elevated, yes, but justifiable given the current mix of thin liquidity and lighter open interest as markets navigate unfamiliar terrain 🤨. Encouragingly, this rally feels more structurally robust than the last, with less frothy momentum-chasing and stronger fundamental underpinnings 💪 Options Market Signals: Topside Interest Rebuilds The brief dip following BTC’s initial ATH triggered put-side profit-taking, but buyers were quick to reload on the upside. Most notably, 1,000 contracts of the September 130K call were swept up. A cost-effective vehicle for expressing a breakout thesis with convexity. Constructive Medium-Term Setup The broader backdrop continues to skew bullish 📈. A more accommodating U.S. regulatory environment, coupled with persistent institutional inflows via both ETFs and direct spot allocations, is fostering structural demand. Meanwhile, Strategy’s $2.1B offering of 10% Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRF), earmarked for additional BTC acquisitions, could act as a further accelerant for price appreciation. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 22 May 2025 A fresh wave of volatility is gripping 🇯🇵 Japanese fixed income markets as 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields surge past 3%, breaching historic levels and unsettling global investors. Japan’s ballooning debt situation has long been a simmering concern, but it is now reaching a boiling point 💥. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 234%, the highest among developed economies, the fiscal strain is drawing renewed scrutiny 🆘. Comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have catalyzed global focus, even as Japan’s debt metrics have quietly deteriorated over the past decade. Weak demand for long-dated JGBs, combined with structural concerns, has sent long-end yields sharply higher ⚡️ Traditionally, USDJPY has been more sensitive to short-term rate differentials than long-end yield dynamics. ➡️ However, if this bond selloff persists and fiscal concerns deepen, we could see short-term appreciation in the yen as capital reconsiders Japan risk. The tremors in JGBs are spilling over into global markets. US 30Y UST yields have pushed back above 5% 🤨, as investors draw parallels to America’s own debt trajectory. Trump’s latest “big and beautiful bill,” a 3.8 trillion dollar fiscal package 🇺🇸, has been blocked, but the signal remains clear. Fiscal policy is back in the spotlight, and not in a good way. Meanwhile, 🟠 Bitcoin attempted a break above $108k today but lacked the momentum to sustain the move. Price action appears closely tied to treasury accumulation by 🕕 Strategy and Metaplanet, who remain the headline buyers at current levels 😌. There is growing concern that these entities may represent the last of the marginal bid, particularly with BTC hovering near ATHs . A slowdown in their buying could trigger profit-taking from other market participants and potentially reverse the prevailing uptrend. Despite relentless macro headwinds including surging bond yields, tariff escalations and mounting stagflation risks in the US for Q3 and Q4, BTC has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past month. That said, a breakout to new highs could ignite a fresh wave of FOMO, dragging in sidelined retail capital and pushing prices even higher. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 20 May 2025 Trump’s Getting Moody, But Not BTC With equities under pressure, a persistently cautious Fed, and the US credit rating highlighting Washington’s fiscal vulnerabilities, Trump appears to be feeling the heat ☺️. On Saturday, the president lashed out at Walmart for raising prices in response to tariffs 🛒 and even signaled a willingness to travel to China to reignite trade talks. Bitcoin, however, is holding up comparatively well 👍, briefly touching $107,000 on Sunday. The initial rally was likely sparked by Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase 🐋, adding to Strategy Inc’s usual weekend accumulation. That said, the move, which also saw a jump in BTC perpetual funding rates, was short-lived. Dealers long gamma seized the opportunity to lock in profits, triggering liquidations in leveraged long positions. While BTC has since retraced its weekend gains during Asia trading 🌏, it remains firmly within its recent range, underpinned by a notable uptick in institutional demand. Spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, pointing to resilient underlying support. 🤩 What’s particularly striking is BTC’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s US credit rating downgrade. This reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value, a narrative that continues to gather momentum and may serve as a long-term catalyst 🪙 Meanwhile, the broader crypto narrative is also gaining traction. 🌀 Coinbase (COIN) is set to join the S&P 500 later tonight, a symbolic milestone that underscores growing mainstream acceptance and institutional credibility 📈. The timing is fortuitous, following its strategic acquisition of Deribit. Volatility markets are reflecting this optimism. 👉 Despite spot prices chopping sideways and macro uncertainties lingering, crypto vols remain relatively elevated. 🍀 Notably, BTC call skew remains intact across most tenors, suggesting a structurally bullish outlook @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 19 May 2025 Trump’s Getting Moody, But Not BTC With equities under pressure, a persistently cautious Fed, and the US credit rating highlighting Washington’s fiscal vulnerabilities, Trump appears to be feeling the heat. On Saturday, the president lashed out at 🛒 Walmart for raising prices in response to tariffs and even signaled a willingness to travel to China to reignite trade talks. Bitcoin, however, is holding up comparatively well, briefly touching $107,000 on Sunday. The initial rally was likely sparked by Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase, adding to Strategy Inc’s usual weekend accumulation. That said, the move, which also saw a jump in BTC perpetual funding rates, was short-lived. Dealers long gamma seized the opportunity to lock in profits 💸, triggering liquidations in leveraged long positions. While BTC has since retraced its weekend gains during Asia trading, it remains firmly within its recent range, underpinned by a notable uptick in institutional demand. Spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, pointing to resilient underlying support. What’s particularly striking is BTC’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s US credit rating downgrade. This reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value, a narrative that continues to gather momentum and may serve as a long-term catalyst 😨 Meanwhile, the broader crypto narrative is also gaining traction. 🌀 Coinbase (COIN) is set to join the S&P 500 later tonight, a symbolic milestone that underscores growing mainstream acceptance and institutional credibility. The timing is fortuitous, following its strategic acquisition of Deribit. Volatility markets are reflecting this optimism 😉. Despite spot prices chopping sideways and macro uncertainties lingering, crypto vols remain relatively elevated. Notably, BTC call skew remains intact across most tenors, suggesting a structurally bullish outlook. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 14 May 2025 Markets rally on US–Saudi trade breakthrough 🇸🇦🇺🇸 Markets staged a sharp rebound overnight, buoyed by an unexpectedly bullish turn in US trade diplomacy. ✍️ Washington signed a landmark $600 billion trade pact with Saudi Arabia, prompting a rollback in tariffs and sparking a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment. With this, the “Art of the Deal” era appears alive and well. Equities climbed another leg higher. The S&P 500 has erased last month’s 17% drawdown and is now flat on the year, defying bearish expectations and underscoring the market's renewed appetite for risk. US CPI softens, but Fed holds steady US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve to inflation worries and bolstering bets on rate cuts. Still, the Fed remains cautious. At its last meeting, officials reiterated a data-dependent stance, flagging the uncertain downstream effects of tariffs on both unemployment and inflation. The first cut is currently priced in for July, but in our view, September is more realistic given the Fed’s desire for further clarity. Market pricing has also adjusted accordingly, with two rate cuts now expected for 2025, down from four just a month prior. Crypto leads the rebound Crypto has outpaced equities on the rebound, with 💸 BTC edging close to all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH plays catch up, 👍 with the ETHBTC cross now at 0.025 Looking ahead, we believe there is further room for digital assets to rally, especially as 🌀 Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on 19 May draws closer. History tells us that index inclusion tends to act as a short-term catalyst, as passive managers adjust their allocations to track the benchmark more closely. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 13 May 2025 A dull weekend? Not this time. In a breakthrough moment for global trade 🕯, the U.S. and China have agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs. U.S. duties on most Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30% 🔥, while China will cut levies on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The détente sparked a sharp risk rally, with U.S. equities gapping 3% higher at the open as markets priced in a resurgence of cross-border flows. 💰 Gold, a traditional hedge against uncertainty and protectionism, tumbled nearly 3% on the news before paring losses. The return to a more orthodox macro regime - USD stronger, Treasury yields firmer, gold weaker - has encouraged renewed vol selling across asset classes. The VIX is now back down to 18, and BTC front-end vols have compressed by over 5 vols. BTC and ETH initially dipped on the tariff announcement and are now stabilizing around $103K and $2.4K respectively 🐂. But under the surface, signs of rotation are emerging. BTC dominance has slipped below 63%, while alts, particularly ETH, are beginning to outperform 🔹 BTC remains caught in a tug-of-war between its identity as “digital gold” and its function as a risk-on proxy. This tension continues to obscure its directional conviction. As the macro narrative moves from protectionism toward renewed trade optimism, BTC could remain range-bound. Still, the broader pivot may shape derivatives flows. Longer investment horizons tend to support back-end options demand, reduce the need for front-end put hedging, and contribute to a steepening vol curve. 🕔 ETH, by contrast, appears to be constructing a cleaner story. Funding remains neutral, and options skew toward puts over calls, indicating that the breakout is not driven by speculative excess. The clean move above 2,400 aligns with the Pectra upgrade rollout. We are also beginning to see a re-emergence of longer-dated option flows, which could be an early sign that ETH is positioning itself as the market’s next major allocation play. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 8 May 2025 No News is Good News 😕 As expected, last night’s FOMC meeting offered little in the way of surprises. The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged and reiterated its well-worn narrative: a resilient US economy, a tight labour market, and inflation still hovering just above the 2% target 👌 😁 While the resurfacing of trade tensions via President Trump’s proposed tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into the US economic outlook, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious but composed. He reiterated that the costs of patience are “fairly low,” signalling no urgency to cut rates. Importantly, Powell sidestepped any commitment on the number of potential cuts this year, choosing instead to defer that guidance to the June FOMC meeting. Markets, however, are not waiting. Current pricing reflects expectations for three 25bps cuts in July, September, and December. Major Trade Deal Teased – Risk-On Returns President Trump sparked a wave of risk-on sentiment early this morning by teasing a major trade agreement, with market speculation pointing to the 🇬🇧 United Kingdom as the likely counterparty. While the announcement lacks detail, the prospect alone was enough to jolt price action across asset classes. Crypto assets responded swiftly and positively. Bitcoin climbed 2.74%, decisively reclaiming the psychological $99K level. Meanwhile, 🪙 Ethereum surged 6.89% during the Asia session, breaking out of its three-week consolidation range between $1,700 and $1,900. On the options desk, we saw a pronounced uptick in demand for topside calls, particularly those expiring in May and June. This flow indicates growing optimism as traders position for further upside in response to the improving macro backdrop. Cautiously Constructive Heading into tonight’s US open, all 👀 eyes will be on whether this rally can sustain or whether it risks a textbook “buy the rumour, sell the news” unwind once the trade partner is formally confirmed. For now, we remain tactically cautious. Until BTC can close above the $100K handle on the daily, we see limited reward in chasing momentum at current levels. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 8 May 2025 The Ripple Effect ✖️ Following the tremors in TWD, reverberations quickly spilled into regional FX markets, with no pair more affected than HKD/USD. 🇭🇰 The Hong Kong dollar surged toward the strong end of its trading band, brushing up against the 7.75 floor of its long-standing USD peg. In a decisive move, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened, selling a combined HKD 73.3 billion across two operations to defend the peg. The impact was immediate: HIBOR rates tumbled sharply across the curve, prompting hedge funds to unwind heavily crowded USD/HKD carry trades. The 1-month rate alone collapsed by nearly 60 basis points in a single session. The dust has settled for now. But should the HKD strengthen further, markets could be forced to contend with another sharp leg lower in HIBOR, and a potentially more disorderly unwind. Crypto Takes the Hint 😉 The FX unwind also ignited speculation of easing US-China trade tensions 🕯, with whispers of discreet negotiations taking place in Switzerland 🇨🇭. That narrative fueled a risk-on rally through early Asia hours, and Bitcoin responded swiftly, climbing 3% to $97,000 and erasing its weekend losses. But the rally wasn’t driven by FX alone. Another catalyst came from New Hampshire, where Governor Kelly Ayotte approved a landmark measure establishing the first US state-level Bitcoin reserve 🎉. “New Hampshire is once again First in the Nation!” she declared. The legislation permits up to 5% of public funds to be allocated to cryptocurrency and precious metals. For now, Bitcoin is the only eligible digital asset, given the market cap threshold of $500 billion 🪙 💯 A small policy shift at the state level, but a giant step for crypto’s institutional future. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 7 May 2025 Could FX be the fulcrum of the next big move? 🤔 We witnessed a remarkable 8% rally in the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD) on Monday, accompanied by a broad-based move higher in the Korean Won and other APAC currencies with large, persistent current account surpluses relative to the US dollar 💵 The spread between TWD spot and the 1Y NDF widened to an extraordinary 3,000 points, its broadest in two decades, amid trading volumes unseen since the 2008 financial crisis ⏱ What’s driving this, and why does it matter? 🇹🇼 Taiwan is a key net exporter to the US, anchored by its dominant semiconductor industry. While this trade surplus typically drives structural TWD strength, it is usually offset by steady capital outflows. Taiwanese residents hold significant unhedged USD-denominated assets, which helps balance the currency dynamics 🧘 🌊 The abrupt appreciation in TWD appears to stem from growing speculation around a potential US-Taiwan trade pact, coupled with heightened hedging flows from domestic life insurers managing USD exposure. This situation recalls the sharp carry trade unwind in JPY on August 4 last year. 🇯🇵 Japan’s deep negative yield differential with the US became untenable in the face of macro shifts. Although TWD lacks the global reserve status of JPY, the move could be an early signal of broader positioning risks in the FX complex and a potential realignment in global capital flows. Why should crypto care? Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless. 👉 At the same time, the FX shakeup coincides with a nearly 3% surge in gold on Monday, as investors lean into the weaker-dollar narrative and price in geopolitical risk premia, including prospective US trade diplomacy. From here, the path appears increasingly binary. On one hand, we could see a volatility shock, where BTC decouples from gold’s safe haven bid and relinks with broader risk proxies. Alternatively, it serves as a tailwind for trade diplomacy. A stronger TWD reinforces Taiwan’s negotiating leverage, which could accelerate the likelihood of a US trade agreement. In a market where correlations are fraying, FX may once again be the canary in the macro coalmine. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 29 April 25 BTC: Safe Haven or Risk Asset? 📊 Last week, we highlighted the importance of monitoring Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and equities. Initially, BTC rallied alongside gold as equities slumped, demonstrating that a strong equity market was not a prerequisite for BTC’s ascent. With BTC now comfortably breaching the $90k mark 💹, the narrative of BTC as a hedge against political instability and uncertain monetary policy appears increasingly entrenched. But is BTC truly “digital gold”? Not quite ❌. Midweek, BTC pivoted, decoupling from gold and rallying alongside equities, largely in response to headlines surrounding "21 Capital." This flip-flopping between safe-haven and risk-asset behaviour suggests that traditional correlation frameworks are becoming less instructive. Instead, market participants are now focused on the durability of BTC’s “up only” trend. Options markets appear to be embracing this optimism. Call skew remains elevated, with over 500x BTC-30MAY25-104k-C and 800x BTC-27JUN25-135k-C bought on Friday. BTC’s rally seems fundamentally healthier compared to previous cycles. Rather than speculative leverage, this recovery is being driven by increased TradFi adoption. Perpetual funding rates have remained flat to slightly negative, while spot BTC ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of net inflows totalling $3.1 billion. Nevertheless, the sustainability of BTC’s momentum faces several key tests this week. Critical macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings could prove pivotal in determining whether BTC's "up only" trajectory holds. Key Events to Watch: Tue: JOLTS Job Openings Wed: US Advance GDP, US Employment Cost, MSFT and META earnings Thu: US Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg PMI, AAPL and AMZN earnings Fri: NFP, Unemployment Rate @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Company Now Hiring! We are excited to announce that QCP Company is currently seeking talented professionals to join our dynamic team 👥. We have openings for various positions, including: • Community Managers • Web3 Developers/Analysts • Project Managers • Product Managers • Business Developers • Marketing Directors 🙏 If you are passionate about decentralized technologies and possess a visionary mindset, we encourage you to apply for one of these roles. For more information about the project and to explore our resources, please visit our GForms link, which includes access to our Linktree, Twitter, Discord, LTD Document, Medium, and more 🌎 😉 At QCP, we value diversity and inclusivity, fostering an environment that encourages collaboration, innovation, and continuous learning. If you're ready to take the next step in your career and join a forward-thinking team, apply today! 💸 Salary Range: Positions vary with an average salary of $105k - $215k per year. To apply, please fill out our Google Form: Application Form ✍️ We look forward to welcoming you to our team! @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 25 April 25 A sigh of relief 🤩 President Trump dialled down his usual pressure campaign this week, temporarily shelving critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and easing up on China 😆. Despite persistent frustrations over the Fed’s hesitation to cut rates, the President reassured investors Wednesday morning that Powell’s job is safe. 😄 In a notable shift, he also acknowledged that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods is “very high” and promised it “will come down substantially" Markets welcomed the pause in hostilities. Bitcoin surged to an intraday high of $94.5K, extending its rally to five consecutive days, as broader risk sentiment stabilised. Achievement unlocked 🛡 💸 As BTC reclaimed the $94K handle, it briefly became the fifth-largest asset globally by market capitalisation, overtaking Alphabet (Google 🔰) for the first time. Although it has since moderated to around $93K, placing it seventh, the symbolic milestone reflects the ongoing maturation of the asset class. This momentum is underpinned by deepening institutional participation, with emerging players like 21 Capital helping cement Bitcoin’s place among the world's most valuable assets 😉 Remember to monitor positioning closely With BTC holding firmly above $90K, sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic. Call options at $95K strikes for end-April and end-May expiries have dominated flow, pointing to a tactical appetite for further upside. Still, ❕ with macro risks temporarily subdued and trade tensions cooling, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow $90K–$94.5K range while awaiting a catalyst for a decisive push toward the elusive $100K mark. Given the pace of the recent rally, we remain tactically cautious. Positioning has become more crowded, which could lead to sharper reactions around key levels. Market participants appear to be watching closely for signs of continuation or exhaustion 👀 @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 24 April 25 When the Noise Becomes the Signal 😱 Just when markets seemed saturated with headlines, a blockbuster $3 billion Bitcoin fund has taken center stage. In an audacious move, Cantor, SoftBank, Tether 💵, and Bitfinex are aligning to launch 21 Capital (tentatively titled), a bold BTC acquisition vehicle led by Brandon Lutnick. The fund plans to raise an additional $350 million via convertible bonds, alongside a $200 million private equity round, with one clear directive: buy more Bitcoin, and buy it big 🤑. The structure channels early echoes of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet once dominated headlines. But 21 Capital brings a new twist: converting BTC holdings into equity, issuing shares priced at $10, effectively valuing Bitcoin at $85,000 per coin. For many, this isn’t just another fund, it’s a prototype for institutionalizing crypto exposure at scale. Timing is Everything 🕰 The launch comes on the heels of a decisive shift in U.S. policy posture, as the Trump administration leans into the “digital gold” narrative, lending political tailwinds to crypto markets. 💵 Bitcoin has surged past the prior $88.8k technical ceiling, clearing the psychological $90k mark to trade at an eye-watering $93.5k. Meanwhile, Gold has slid 6 percent, underscoring a renewed appetite for risk and a clear rotation into digital assets. Institutions are no longer testing crypto’s waters. They are diving in headfirst. As Strategy’s playbook fades from the spotlight, 21 Capital looks set to become the new standard-bearer for crypto conviction. Macro: Less Uncertainty, Not No Risk Macro risks remain, but one critical overhang appears to be cleared. ✊Trump is signaling no intention to replace Fed Chair Powell for now. The reassurance has prompted a modest pullback in long-end yields, helping reduce a key tail risk. Despite calmer bond markets, U.S. equities remain tethered near record highs at $5,400, reflecting a more tempered and cautious response. The broader outlook, however, is anything but simple. Trade frictions, geopolitical jitters, and regulatory opacity continue to cast long shadows. Investors are navigating a rapidly shifting landscape, remaining sharply attuned to the next potential inflection point. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 23 April 25 Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain 🔗 🥇 Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce 🔝. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell ❌ Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase 🌀 premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest. 💵Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors. Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility. For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 21 April 25 Bitcoin 🤑 staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia 🌏 hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former 😐 President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered. But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. 🌉 Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe 🛡 haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation. Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks ⏰ So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With 🇪🇺 Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely. For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25 The Art of the Deal The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table. Why the sudden pivot ❓ Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up. The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory". Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, 🌉 gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value 🤑 Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern. But where's Bitcoin in all this? Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 14 April 25 Going All-In 😼 After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise 🧘, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic 😱 triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks. The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat? Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the 😁 Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs. So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself. What about BTC? 🪙 In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June 🗓☀️, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 10 April 25 Make America Wealthy Again 💵 If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump 🤔 authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China 🇨🇳. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. 💵 Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement. Respect is Earned, Not Given 🚫 In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap. Not Out of the Woods Yet The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year. All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 4 April 25 Liberation Day or Liquidation Day? 😄 In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again 🤑, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S. 🇺🇸 Markets wasted no time reacting 🔽. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated ❌, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH. As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains 🌏 With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December. On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious ⚠️ That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce. @QCP_Capital 🔥