Crypto Retro

➡️ Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance: Implications for Bitcoin 📉 The U.S. Federal Reserve recently released the minutes from its September meeting, revealing a dovish outlook among committee members. Approximately half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members anticipate two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. This news prompted a surge in Bitcoin's value, which rose to over $124K after a brief dip from its record high of $126,198.07. 🗣 During the meeting, the FOMC decided to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time in nearly a year, citing weak employment data as a key factor. President Trump had previously criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to implement rate cuts. Despite a September inflation rate of 2.9%—significantly above the Fed's 2% target—the unexpected rise in unemployment compelled the committee to adjust rates. 📊 The released minutes indicated a shift among FOMC members from a hawkish to a dovish stance due to the weak job market and the ongoing government shutdown, which is expected to worsen employment conditions. The minutes stated,

The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with around half expecting three cuts over that time.

📈 At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $123,506.78, reflecting a 1.7% increase over the past 24 hours. Despite a 12.06% decrease in trading volume to $68.48 billion, market capitalization rose by 1.86% to $2.46 trillion. Bitcoin dominance slightly increased to 59.04%. Meanwhile, futures open interest remained stable with a minor dip of 0.24% to $90.94 billion, and liquidations totaled $77.77 million, primarily driven by short sellers.

🚀 eCash to Launch Avalanche-Style Pre-Consensus on Nov. 15 ⚡️ During the Electronic Cash Conference in Barcelona, eCash founder Amaury Séchet announced the upcoming launch of the "Pre-Consensus" feature, set to be activated on November 15 as part of the network upgrade. This feature aims to formalize a capability that has been long discussed in the project's roadmap. ⚡️ Pre-Consensus will introduce Avalanche-style consensus to eCash, providing fast transaction finality before block production. It is described as the first instance of instant finality on a proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain, targeting confirmation within three seconds and reducing the reliance on probabilistic settlement for routine payments. Séchet emphasized its significance, stating,

Pre-Consensus is a milestone not just for eCash, but for digital cash technology in general.

💱 For exchanges and services, this change means that deposits can be credited without waiting for multiple block confirmations. Current service providers supporting eCash’s Avalanche finality include Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, HTX, and Coinex. A public scorecard is available to track integrations and planned rollouts. 🔗 Developers describe eCash as a Nakamoto/Avalanche hybrid that maintains proof-of-work while incorporating Avalanche pre-consensus to expedite settlement. The Avalanche implementation on eCash is distinct from the AVAX network and was developed by the Bitcoin ABC team. 🗓 The activation is scheduled for November 15, pending the successful execution of the network upgrade across compatible nodes. Additional information on instant finality and the Avalanche integration can be found on the project's website and the service support scorecard, which will be updated as more services enable the feature.

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📈 October: Bitcoin's Best Month 🌟 October is historically the best month for Bitcoin, with a high median return compared to other months. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has shown positive returns every October for the past twelve years, except in 2014 and 2018. This year, despite being only the second day of the month, Bitcoin has already recorded a 5.41% monthly return. 📊 A recent government shutdown did not deter traders; instead, it seemed to boost their confidence. Following a stalemate between Senate Republicans and Democrats over temporary funding, both Bitcoin and stocks saw a rise. Even a surprising drop in private sector employment was interpreted as a reason for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, leading to further gains in both markets. 📈 The monthly trend remains consistent. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen increases, with Bitcoin gaining 2.55% over the past 24 hours. This supports the so-called "Uptober" phenomenon. 💰 At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $120,128.94, up 2.55% since yesterday and 9.7% for the week. The cryptocurrency has traded within a range of $117,235.26 to $120,324.11. 📉 However, 24-hour trading volume decreased by 4.88% to $67.82 billion. Market capitalization increased by 2.54% to $2.39 trillion, aligning with the price rise. Bitcoin dominance dipped slightly by 0.52% to 58.74%, indicating rallies in the altcoin market as well. ⚡️ Total Bitcoin futures open interest rose by 3.59% over 24 hours to $88.40 billion. Bitcoin liquidations amounted to $134.70 million since yesterday, primarily driven by short sellers who lost $117.17 million. Long-positioned bulls faced smaller losses of $17.53 million.

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🟢 XRP's Market Performance: A Balancing Act Between Support and Resistance 📈 XRP has been strutting its stuff in the crypto market, maintaining a price range between $2.85 and $2.928 with a market cap of $171 billion. Over the past 24 hours, it fluctuated between $2.78 and $2.92, supported by a robust trading volume of $3.95 billion. 📊 On the 1-hour chart, XRP displayed a micro-uptrend, rising from $2.76 to $2.90 before entering a consolidation phase around $2.85–$2.87. It is currently hovering just below the $2.90 mark, with potential for a quick trade opportunity if it dips to $2.83–$2.85. However, if it can surpass $2.90 again, a bullish surge could follow; otherwise, a retreat to $2.80 may be on the horizon. 🔄 The 4-hour chart shows XRP recovering from a drop to $2.69 and climbing back towards $2.90 with increased volume. Yet, fading momentum raises concerns. Short-term support is around $2.75–$2.80, while resistance is near $2.95–$3.00. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but the real test lies at the upper price range. 📉 Looking at the daily chart, XRP is navigating a broader range between $2.70 and $3.38. Recent price movements suggested a bullish trend from $2.70 but fell short of $3.10. Nevertheless, its persistence above $2.80 adds a hint of bullish sentiment. Currently, the bias is neutral with a slight upward tilt, as long as XRP stays above $2.70. ⚖️ Analyzing the oscillators reveals a mixed sentiment. The relative strength index (RSI) and other indicators are neutral, indicating uncertainty about the market direction. The momentum oscillator shows a slightly bullish stance, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) leans bearish, suggesting some skepticism remains. 📉 The moving averages (MAs) present a dramatic picture. Short-term averages indicate weakness, but longer-term averages like the 100-period EMA and 200-period EMA show bullish tendencies, providing long-term support. However, caution is advised as most shorter-term averages signal potential challenges ahead. 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If XRP can hold above $2.80 and reclaim $2.90 decisively, it may pave the way for a rally towards $3.10 and beyond, supported by long-term moving averages. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if XRP falls below $2.80 and approaches $2.70, bearish pressures may intensify. With short-term averages turning negative and momentum indicators wavering, a drop below key support could jeopardize XRP's position above $2.

🚀 XRP Certified as Shariah-Compliant: A Gateway to Islamic Finance 🌟 The Shariyah Review Bureau (SRB) of Bahrain has officially certified XRP as Shariah-compliant, potentially unlocking access to the $2 trillion Islamic finance market. This certification, which aligns with Islamic law principles, positions XRP for use in Islamic financial services and transactions. ⚡️ The SRB's endorsement indicates that XRP can be utilized in financial dealings without breaching religious prohibitions against interest (riba), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and speculation. This development sets Bahrain apart from other Gulf states that have been cautious about digital assets. 🌟 This certification, issued by a central bank-regulated bureau, distinguishes XRP from other cryptocurrencies seeking similar recognition. It may provide Ripple, the issuer of XRP, with a competitive advantage in establishing partnerships with Islamic banks and fintechs. An analyst noted,

This approval is more than symbolic—it’s a strategic enabler.

🔍 However, the SRB's ruling does not ensure automatic acceptance in other regions like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, where local Shariah boards must conduct their own assessments. While many XRP supporters anticipate that this certification could boost interest and drive price momentum in the Middle East, Ripple must maintain high standards of transparency and ethical conduct to keep XRP compliant.

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📉 Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Experience Significant Outflows 📉 The week began on a negative note for both bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with bitcoin ETFs facing outflows of $363 million and ether ETFs shedding $76 million across four funds. This marked a sharp decline in net assets despite high trading activity. 🟢 Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest daily exit since early September, with Fidelity’s FBTC experiencing the most significant withdrawal of $276.68 million. Ark 21Shares’ ARKB followed with $52.30 million in redemptions, while Grayscale’s GBTC lost $24.65 million and Vaneck’s HODL closed out with $9.54 million in exits. No fund reported any fresh inflows. Despite strong trading activity of $3.43 billion, net assets dipped to $148.09 billion. ➡️ Ether ETFs also saw a decline, with total outflows of $75.95 million. Fidelity’s FETH suffered the steepest losses at $33.12 million, followed by Bitwise’s ETHW with $22.30 million. Blackrock’s ETHA logged a $15.07 million exit, while Grayscale’s Ether Mini Trust slipped by $5.45 million. The day's trading value reached $2.06 billion, leaving net assets at $27.52 billion. 📌 The simultaneous pullback indicates that crypto ETF investors are exercising caution and withdrawing capital after a recent period of inflow-heavy recovery. With both bitcoin and ether ETFs starting the week in the red, attention will be on whether Tuesday will bring a reversal or further deepen the outflow streak.

➡️ El Salvador's Gold Purchase: A Strategic Move Aligned with Bitcoin Ideals 🌍 In a significant move, El Salvador has recently acquired $50 million worth of gold, marking its first gold purchase since 1990. This decision, announced by the Central Bank of El Salvador, reflects President Bukele's commitment to the principles of bitcoin and sound money. Gold has traditionally been seen as a safe haven against fiat currency devaluation, making this purchase particularly noteworthy. 📈 The timing of this acquisition is crucial, as it comes when gold prices are nearing their all-time highs. This strategy allows El Salvador to diversify its foreign reserves while also providing a buffer against fiat currency volatility. This is especially important for the country, which is currently under a $1.4 billion credit facility agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As part of this deal, the Salvadoran government agreed to limit its bitcoin purchases, a condition it has reportedly complied with despite Bukele's claims to the contrary. ♾ By pivoting to gold, El Salvador can protect itself from currency fluctuations without relying solely on bitcoin. This move aligns with a global trend where central banks are increasing their gold holdings while selling off debt securities.

Pivoting to gold would be a step in the right direction and would comply with IMF constraints on bitcoin purchases

highlights the strategic nature of this decision. 🔗 In summary, El Salvador's recent gold purchase is not just a financial maneuver; it is a strategic alignment with the monetary ideals of bitcoin while adhering to IMF regulations. As the country navigates its unique position in the crypto landscape, this move could provide the stability needed in uncertain economic times.

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⚖️ Ethereum's Price Predictions: A Battle Between Bullish Optimism and Cautious Realism 📉 Ethereum is at a critical juncture with contrasting price predictions for the coming years. While some bullish forecasts suggest a potential rise to $12,000, Citi warns that current prices may be overstated, predicting a drop to $4,300 by 2025 unless there is significant adoption.

Current prices are above activity estimates, potentially driven by recent buying pressure and excitement over use-cases.

📊 Citi attributes Ethereum's recent gains more to investor optimism than to actual network activity. They outline a bullish scenario of $6,400 with increased adoption and a bearish case of $2,200 if macroeconomic conditions worsen. The bank also notes that while Ethereum can be staked for yields unlike Bitcoin, it anticipates ETF inflows into Ethereum will be less than those for Bitcoin. 📈 In contrast, other financial institutions like Standard Chartered and Fundstrat Capital are more optimistic. Standard Chartered has raised its year-end forecast for Ethereum to $7,500 citing stronger corporate engagement and expected growth in stablecoin adoption. Fundstrat Capital's CIO Tom Lee predicts Ethereum could reach between $10,000 and $12,000 by year-end.

While ETH remains below its record peak reached in August, Citi underscored its distinction from bitcoin, noting that ether can be staked to generate yields while supporting the network.

⚡️ Independent research from Finder supports long-term growth potential for Ethereum. Their panel of 24 crypto industry specialists predicts an average price of $4,308 by the end of 2025, rising to $10,882 by 2030, and reaching $22,374 by 2035. This wide range of forecasts reflects significant uncertainty but also highlights Ethereum's potential over the next decade.

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📈 Crypto Market Rebounds: Bitcoin and Altcoins Surge 🔄 After a bearish stretch lasting nearly two weeks, the crypto market rebounded, closing the week with a market capitalization of just under $4.17 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) ended the period on September 13 with a gain of nearly 5%, pushing its market cap back above $2.3 trillion. According to Bitstamp data, BTC peaked at $116,805 on September 12 before settling in the $115,000 to $116,000 range. 📊 A report from Bitcoin News indicated that BTC’s technical structure remained bullish, suggesting that breaching the $117,000 resistance could pave the way to $120,000 in the short term. However, it also cautioned that if BTC fell below $114,770, a retreat to $113,500 could be triggered. 📈 While Bitcoin’s dominance fueled the overall performance of the crypto economy, the top two altcoins—Ethereum (ETH) and XRP—posted even stronger gains, rising 8.2% and 10.8%, respectively. After struggling to break the $4,600 mark for much of September, ETH surged to a peak of $4,768—its first time trading above $4,750 since August 25. 🚀 XRP, which had traded below $3 until September 9, briefly rose to $3.18—its highest level in over three weeks—before declining to $3.10. It was one of more than eight high-cap altcoins that closed the week with double-digit gains. Other notable performers included SOL (up 17.5%), DOGE (35.7%), ADA (12.4%), LINK (10.8%), HYPE (18.8%), SUI (12.6%), and XLM (12.8%). 🌟 BNB also had a milestone-setting day on September 13, reaching an all-time high of $942 and bringing its gain over the past twelve months to over 60%. Some pro-BNB analysts now predict it’s only a matter of time before it breaches the $1,000 mark. 📉 On the downside, ERN emerged as the period’s biggest gainer, rising by more than 2,100%, followed by MXY—the native token of the controversial decentralized exchange MXY Finance—which closed 902% higher. However, FORM led the losing side with a drop of 28.5%, followed by GEMS at 22.8% and REX at 22.2%. The centralized crypto exchange token huobi (HT) was notable for having double-digit losses among altcoins.

📈 Bitcoin Surges to $114,000 Following Unexpected Drop in Wholesale Inflation 📊 Bitcoin experienced a significant surge, reaching $114,000, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a surprising 0.1% decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August. This drop caught economists off guard, as they had anticipated a 0.3% increase following a 0.7% rise in July. ⚡️ The decline in inflation was primarily driven by lower prices for machinery and vehicles. The BLS noted that

Three quarters of the August decrease in prices for final demand services can be attributed to a 3.9% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling.

The PPI is seen as a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures retail inflation. 📈 Following the PPI report, both stocks and Bitcoin saw upward momentum. The overall PPI now stands at an annualized rate of 2.6%, with an adjusted rate of 2.8% when excluding volatile categories like food and energy. 💬 President Donald Trump commented on the report, stating on Truth Social,

No Inflation!!!’ ‘Too Late’ must lower the RATE, BIG, right now. Powell is a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue!!!

📊 At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $113,877.77, up 2.7% for the day. Trading volume had increased by 15.65% since Tuesday, reaching $53.04 billion. Market capitalization rose to $2.26 trillion, a 2.67% jump. Bitcoin dominance edged up slightly to 58.23%. 📈 Total open interest for Bitcoin futures also saw a rise, jumping to $84.86 billion, a 3.87% increase over 24 hours. However, Bitcoin liquidations dropped to $37.96 million for the day, with short sellers accounting for most of those losses at $34.96 million.

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➡️ Gold Reaches New Heights Amid Economic Uncertainty 📈 On September 8, gold prices soared to a record high of $3,637 per ounce, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous day and a staggering 44% rise year-over-year. This surge is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and financial factors that reinforce gold's status as a safe-haven asset. 📉 As of 10 a.m. Eastern time, gold was trading at $3,635 per ounce, having reached its peak just minutes earlier. The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut makes gold more attractive compared to bonds and savings accounts. Ongoing global economic uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures have weakened the U.S. dollar, further boosting gold's appeal. Additionally, trade tensions stemming from President Trump's tariffs have driven investors towards gold at an accelerated rate. 💵 The declining dollar has fallen to multi-month lows, making gold cheaper for international buyers and increasing demand. Typically, gold prices move inversely to the dollar; as the dollar drops, gold prices tend to rise. Despite expectations of a rate cut in the near future, gold advocate Peter Schiff warns that it may not benefit the U.S. economy.

Lower interest rates won’t ‘help’ the economy this time,”

Schiff stated on X. He added,

The markets will see through the political nature of inappropriate rate cuts despite rising inflation and soaring budget deficits.

He further predicted that the dollar will depreciate and bond yields will increase, leading to higher inflation and unemployment rates. 🔝 This recent rally underscores gold's resilience during turbulent times. Silver is also experiencing significant gains, rising approximately 43% year-over-year and about 1% in the last day. As of the latest reports, silver is priced at $41.39 per ounce after an 8.26% increase over the past month.

📉 Disappointing Private Sector Jobs Data Triggers BTC Slide Below $110K 📊 The increase in private sector jobs for August was significantly lower than expected. New Jersey-based human resources firm ADP reported an increase of 54,000 private sector U.S. jobs, well below the anticipated 75,000. While the stock market remained relatively unaffected, bitcoin took a hit, falling by over 2%. ➡️ Several industries experienced job cuts, including manufacturing, trades, education, health, and finance, which lost a total of 38,000 roles. In contrast, leisure and hospitality sectors gained 50,000 positions. Construction and professional services also reported job increases. 📉 However, weekly jobless claims rose by 8,000 to reach 237,000 for the week ending August 30, the highest level since June. Job openings decreased to their lowest levels since September 2024. ADP’s latest report adds to the gloomy outlook for the U.S. job market and potentially for bitcoin in the short term.

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,”

said Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist.

A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.

♾ At the time of reporting, bitcoin was trading at $110,122.90, down 1.59% for the day and 2.25% over the past week. Trading volume decreased by 8.77% to $57.75 billion, and market capitalization fell by 1.55% to $2.19 trillion. However, bitcoin dominance increased slightly by 0.48% to 58.65%.

💰 Ethereum vs. Emerging Cryptocurrencies: A Potential Shift in the Crypto Landscape 📈 Ethereum (ETH) remains the second-largest cryptocurrency, driving the DeFi sector. While some experts predict ETH could reach $10,000 in this bull run, many investors are also eyeing other cryptocurrencies for potentially higher returns. Ripple (XRP), Little Pepe (LILPEPE), SUI, SEI, Cronos (CRO), and BONK are gaining attention as tokens that might outperform ETH. 🔄 Ripple (XRP) has regained momentum after resolving legal issues. Trading around $3, it aims to revolutionize cross-border payments. With partnerships with banks and financial institutions, analysts believe it could rise to $9 this cycle, offering nearly 200% gains.

Compared to Ethereum, Ripple offers a clearer utility case in payments,

and its lean toward institutional adoption could give it additional fuel over the next 18 months. ➡️ Little Pepe (LILPEPE) has emerged as a leading meme coin. Currently priced at $0.002 with over $21.6 million raised, it has earned a CertiK audit for credibility. Its unique feature is a dedicated Layer 2 chain for meme coins,promising faster transactions and lower fees. If Ethereum reaches $10,000, investors speculate LILPEPE could hit between $0.25 and $0.75 this cycle. 🚀 SUI is gaining traction as an innovative blockchain platform. Trading around $3.60, it offers a growth story similar to Ethereum's early days. With increasing adoption for decentralized applications, analysts predict a surge to at least $10 soon. 📊 SEI is positioning itself as the blockchain for trading. Currently undervalued at $0.33, experts believe it could reach $1 by year-end. Its focus on trading software allows it to occupy a niche that Ethereum doesn't.