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A 5% drop here on ES will be the total carnage moment for bitcoin and we know where there is a trendline, there is always a break.

$BTC UPDATE The December rate cut expectations have dropped dramatically over the last few weeks and even during the last 24 hours too. From 94% a month ago to 62% a day ago and now sliding under 50%, this is the main reason behind the sell-off in the market. No matter how we look at it, bitcoin has always behaved like just another tech stock and with most tech stocks selling off during the last 24 hours, bitcoin is not a different story. Now, with pending data releases and department of statistics saying it will take some time for data to be released fully, there is alot of uncertainty in the market about December cut and as a result, this sell-off. Unless we have a clear statement from the fed officials, this may very well just continue to shake the markets.

$BTC UPDATE Stopped out on our long at $96K. Now the daily SFP thesis still has not been invalidated and only after we close daily below the yesterday low, we’ll know if there is a shift in market structure or not but let let’s keep that on side and take a look at what’s happening on the stablecoin dominance chart. First of all, the actual stablecoin dominance chart cannot be used here since there is no data on that chart beyond/above this point. So, I am using a manually calculated stablecoin dominance chart. I have used the dominance for USDT, USDC and DAI mainly. What this charts tells us is that the index needs to grow around 3.7% - 4% in order to reach a major resistance. For bitcoin, this % may be slightly different but on average, you can expect anywhere between 3.7% - 4% decline in price which could be somewhere around $92K price level. Another important piece of information that we get from here is that between 10th and 11th of November, the index was actually sitting at strong support giving the 1st retest at this level, the same day when bitcoin was at $107.5K. With this being said, we’ll attempt another bitcoin long but this time only once the index would have reached this resistance area. This thesis will also be supported by the $TOTAL chart which I will explain in my next update.

$BTC LONG Taking a bitcoin long at $100K with DCA at $97.5K and hard stoploss at $96K. Risky position, idea is to trade this bullish sfp all the way upto $110K from here.

$BTC UPDATE Expecting something like this, either a sweep of equal lows at $98.8K or a bigger sweep of $98.2K. A daily close above $98.2K after this sweep will be s confirmed bullish SFP and a signal to go long if that happens. Btw, an ascending trendline breakout on bitcoin 🙂

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$BTC UPDATE Going to be an interesting day ahead as stablecoin dominance sitting at support and 1D 12 EMA with this big ascending trendline on daily in formation. And at the same time, we have a big daily ascending trendline also which just got confirmed after the this latest rejection. So, it’s more like a symmetrical triangle formation for stablecoin dominance. I will wait for a break on either direction. But for now, $BTCDOM is at support and $STABLE.C.D is also sitting at an important support level, so careful getting excited with longs.

$BTCDOM UPDATE After the rejection and successful daily retest at the $4500 resistance, $BTCDOM is now back at $4350 support. First daily retests of both S and R are now completed and so, it’s going to be crucial to see how price reacts here. For swing longs, I’d stay cautious as $BTCDOM is back at support but this long held ascending trendline may soon come into play now. A break below $4350 won’t just be a break below support but also a break below trendline and will certainly trigger a significant upside move in the altcoin market. So, one 4H close below this support is our trigger to go long. Also, we have CPI numbers coming out later today after the end of government shutdown finally, so gotta keep an eye on that too.

$BTC UPDATE Trendline breakout on stablecoin dominance confirmed and with 4H close above 9.2%, expect the index to reach 9.5% resistance in the next few hours. Bitcoin may give another retest around $98K.

$BTC UPDATE Stablecoin dominance under resistance still but keep an eye on this small 4H descending trendline.

$TOTAL3 UPDATE While $BTCDOM is at resistance, $TOTAL3 on the other hand giving the first retest at this higher timeframe support after the trendline breakout. This is another reason why our altcoin bias remains bullish/positive for the day. I do not expect $TOTAL3 to lose this level especially considering there is a big deviation below this support. So, focus on breakout setups on altcoins, there are plenty happening right now.

$BTC UPDATE As we discussed, 9.1% - 9.2% remains a strong resistance and the possibility of a retest was there. Now, since this was the first retest, it was most certainly expected to be a successful one. As long as the index remains under this resistance and there is no 4H close above, the short term bias will remain bullish and if we go for another retest of trendline, you can definitely expect a move into $110K pretty soon. But with this latest rejection, now there is also a small ascending trendline also in formation and has been confirmed after this move. If price goes for another retest of 9.2% and eventually gives a 4H close above, we’ll enter a bitcoin short around $102K with the target around $96K but again there is no immediate danger for bulls for as long as the index remains under this resistance.

$BTCDOM UPDATE During our update yesterday, we discussed how the daily bias negative due to the fact that $BTCDOM was sitting at support and expected to reach the resistance at $4500. Now that the index has finally reached the resistance, you expect some upside movement in the altcoin market. Please note that this is not the first retest of this resistance on 4H. After price lost this support back on 7th of November, the first retest on 4H was on 9th of November which was obviously a successful one. So, this retest could be the first one on 1D and hence carries a little less weight in terms of success ratio but I am nevertheless expecting the index to fall from here. So, the daily bias today for the altcoin market will remain generally positive and hence, you should remain focused mostly on break longs.

$SOL UPDATE Will be opening the big short for $SOL once we get the push into $179 - $185 range. Price has almost always successfully given the first retests at this level and with 1D QVWAP & YVWAP both trading in this resistance range, makes this an excellent setup. Will be dropping the limits soon. But these limits only going to fill if bitcoin pushes towards $110K and $ETH towards $3900 which can definitely happen as I have said a few times that the government shutdown ending is the only surprising part which may trigger this small bullish leg on most charts.

$TOTAL UPDATE In my Bitcoin update this morning, I mentioned that only if we get a bigger push into $107K - $108K it will make sense to open a bitcoin or few altcoin shorts. Well, I just realized that we already that push overnight and so it makes sense what we are seeing today. Also, looking at the chart for $TOTAL, it has already been sitting at resistance, a key level since December 2024 and each first retest at this level has been successful. So, $TOTAL may continue to consolidate here for a few days or so, but ultimately the target remains the $3T support. That is why, it’s best to focus on building swing shorts over the next few days/weeks as we get these upside retracements on $BTC and $ETH.

$BTCDOM UPDATE In my last update yesterday, I warned to be cautious with any altcoin longs and a possible bounce here for $BTCDOM which will drag alts down automatically. Again, people are mostly aping into the market expecting price to break below this long held trendline. This is certainly not going to happen anytime soon and only if there is atleast a 1D close below, we’ll start considering this possibility. As for the fresh longs, best to wait for index to reach the $4500 resistance where 1st 4H retest has already happened though but a 1D retest is pending and we’ll start going long at this retest soon. So, the bias today for the altcoin market will remain slightly negative especially if you are focused on scalps.

$BTC UPDATE Another small bounce at the trendline, the same pattern that we discussed yesterday, a few small bounces at the trendline followed by a bigger break downside. Note that 9.1% - 9.2% is the resistance for stablecoin dominance, so there could be a retest of this level in the next few hours which will result in bitcoin going down to atleast $104K where you can expect a bounce. The range is not big enough for me to develop any medium term bias and unless we see a breakdown on trendline, I’d again suggest avoiding the exposure towards long side and for shorts, well the RR may not be good enough. Only if we get a bigger push into $107K - $108K, we can start focusing on shorts more aggressively.

$TOTAL2 UPDATE $TOTAL2 is giving the first retest at $1.4T resistance after the break below back on 3rd of November. So, imo, it makes sense to start scaling into $ETH short here instead of continuing to wait for higher prices. If everything goes according to the plan then the index should return back to the $1.2T support possibly losing that level too after a few retests. A reclaim of $1.4T resistance will be a totally different story chances are low.