Crypto soothsayer

📉 Bernstein: Bitcoin’s drop doesn’t mean the cycle is over 🕵️‍♀️ Analysts at say Bitcoin’s 25% decline from the October peak is not the start of a new bear market but a temporary correction. The market, they argue, isn’t reacting to weakening fundamentals — it’s reacting to fear of a repeat of the classic 4-year cycle that previously ended with sharp sell-offs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. 👀 Despite heavy selling by long-term holders, inflows into spot ETFs and corporate reserves continue to offset the pressure: — $34B flowed into spot ETFs — Institutional ownership in BTC ETFs grew from 20% to 28% since late 2024 — Total AUM stands at $125B, even after a $3B outflow in recent weeks Analysts say this shows a more resilient market structure and reduces the risk of deeper declines. Among long-term growth drivers, Bernstein highlights: — Pro-crypto policy support from the Trump administration — Expected progress on reg — Loosening U.S. monetary policy The report’s authors remain long on several crypto assets.

Andrew Tate: “All BTC holders will end up in jail!” 🚓 Andrew Tate posted that the only way to protect yourself now is to migrate early to private networks and ZK technologies. 😎 Tate — a former kickboxer and outspoken Bitcoin bull — previously said he would abandon fiat entirely and invest hundreds of millions of dollars into BTC. So that’s who’s buying up all the ZCash on the market 😁

🤡 Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT has named a Cardano holder the “clown of the month” after they accidentally lost $6M in a disastrous swap. The user exchanged 14.4M ADA ($6.9M) for just 847K USDA, Cardano’s dollar stablecoin — all because of extremely low liquidity in the pool, which caused a massive temporary price spike during the swap. 👀 Adding to the drama: the holder had kept their ADA untouched for five years before making this single, catastrophic move.🙀

👀 A long-dormant Casascius holder from 2012 just woke up and moved coins An ancient Bitcoin wallet linked to a physical Casascius coin suddenly became active after more than a decade. The holder transferred 2 BTC (~$194k) to Coinbase. 🐳 🪙 These are classic physical bitcoins from the early era, containing private keys hidden under a hologram — today they’re extremely rare and mostly collectors’ items. 🔎 Two related wallets were identified, both untouched since 2012, making this move especially notable for on-chain analysts watching old supply come back to life.

Conspiracy theories are back — some claim BTC is being pushed down to shake out Michael Saylor 🧐 Last night Bitcoin dipped to $93k, sparking a wave of speculation on X that the price is being deliberately driven lower to liquidate Strategy’s positions. 💰The company used BTC as collateral for convertible debt, and if the price falls below a certain LTV threshold, it may be required to add collateral or even sell some of its bitcoin. ⚠️ Estimated risk level: ~$75,000 But panic quickly mixed with intrigue: Michael Saylor posted just two words — “Big week” — and that was enough to set off rumors. Many believe Strategy may have bought the dip and is preparing a major announcement. 👀 The market is stressed, and Saylor is once again fueling the suspense.

🍔 Steak ’n Shake credits Bitcoiners as stores hit record sales Steak ’n Shake — the fast-food chain that launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, introduced a Bitcoin-themed burger, and started accepting BTC payments — reported its strongest quarterly same-store sales among its peers. They publicly thanked the Bitcoin community, saying:

We thank Bitcoiners for helping us achieve the best same-store sales performance in our category! 👏 And, believe it or not, this quarter is registering an even higher growth rate! 🚀

Their BTC strategy isn’t just marketing: it’s saving them money (processing fees dropped ~50%) and driving real business growth. 📈

🕵️‍♂️ Crypto Twitter goes full conspiracy mode over CZ’s posts X is buzzing with users trying to decode hidden signals in posts by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao — many are convinced that he’s hinting at upcoming $BTC movements. 👀 📝 March: BTC fell to $84K, CZ posted: “114,000 words.” A month later Bitcoin pumped past $114K and hit new ATHs. 🚀 📄 Nov 8: At $103K, he wrote: “97,000 words, 300 pages.” Nov 13–14: BTC dropped to $97K. 📉 Now users are obsessing over whether these “word counts” are secret BTC price hints — and especially what “300” could mean 🤔

📉 If you still believe in the classic 4-year cycle… According to the old-school 4-year cycle theory (which many analysts now consider outdated and irrelevant), the bull market might already be over. This model suggests that after each halving the market follows a predictable pattern — and right now we’d supposedly be entering a prolonged correction phase. However, many analysts argue that today’s market is driven by macro factors, institutional flows, and geopolitics, making the 4-year cycle far less reliable. But if you stick to the old rules, it looks like the bull market may have already said its goodbyes. 😬

📊 Wintermute drops a fresh report on BTC–Nasdaq dynamics Wintermute released a new analysis showing that Bitcoin still maintains a strong correlation (~0.8) with the Nasdaq-100. But despite this close link, BTC doesn’t benefit from stock market rallies — it mostly moves in sync when things go bad. 🤷 🔎 Analysts also highlight a negative asymmetry: Bitcoin reacts to downturns but doesn’t share the upside. Historically, this pattern tends to appear not at market tops, but much closer to the bottom. Could this mean we’re nearing a reversal point? 👀

😱 Friday opens with extreme fear — and another $1B in liquidations Crypto markets woke up in chaos: over $1,000,000,000 in positions were liquidated overnight as BTC dipped below $97K. 📉 We haven’t seen these prices since May 2025, and the sentiment has flipped back to extreme fear. 🤷

Bitcoin must hold the $94K level! 🔎 CryptoQuant’s CEO notes that for investors who bought BTC 6–12 months ago, the realized cost basis is around $94,000. 🫣 As long as this level holds, it’s too early to call a bear market. But looking at current price action… it might be the right time to start thinking about what to do if growth doesn’t return 🧐

📉 Bitcoin drops to $98K — a level last seen in May So what now — did the shutdown end and take the bull run down with it? 👀 Looks like the market hit the brakes right when everyone was expecting a breakout. 😢

✈️ 🚲 Aerodrome and Velodrome Merge Into One Unified DEX — AERO DeFi developer Dromos Labs announced the merger of its two protocols — Aerodrome and Velodrome — into a single next-gen DEX called AERO 🍸 ▪️The new platform will launch on Arc (Circle’s new L1 blockchain) and Ethereum ($ETH). ▪️Essentially, Aerodrome absorbs Velodrome — both $AERO and $VELO tokens will be converted into the upgraded AERO token. ▪️Token distribution: Aerodrome holders will receive about 94.5%, Velodrome holders 5.5% of the new token supply. ▪️Both protocols were originally built by Dromos Labs on Base and Optimism ($OP).

🇹🇼 Taiwan Considers Creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Taiwan may soon join the list of nations exploring BTC as part of national reserves 🇧🇹💰 During a parliamentary finance session, the Executive Yuan and Taiwan’s Central Bank confirmed they’re assessing the feasibility of including Bitcoin in the country’s strategic reserves. ⮕ The government is preparing a report on BTC confiscated by authorities, to decide whether to hold or sell it. ⮕ The Central Bank will publish a full “pros & cons” analysis by the end of the year. ⮕ Lawmakers criticized Taiwan’s heavy dependence on the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. If approved, Taiwan could become one of the first Asian economies to officially hold BTC as a reserve asset.

📢 Coinbase Adds Toncoin ($TON) to Its Listing Roadmap The largest U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase has officially included Toncoin (TON) in its listing roadmap — though the trading date remains unknown. 🧐 Normally such news sends tokens flying 🚀, but this time $TON didn’t even blink — the price stayed flat, hinting at some stagnation in the project’s momentum. Alongside Toncoin, Coinbase also added Plasma ($XPL) to the upcoming listings list.

🇺🇸 The Longest U.S. Government Shutdown Is Over President Donald Trump has officially signed bill H.R. 5371, ending the record-breaking 43-day government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history 😮‍💨 🗓 Duration: Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2025 💰 The bill extends federal funding until January 30, 2026. After weeks of frozen operations and political tension, Washington is finally back to work — at least for now.

🚀 Zcash Gets a Major Corporate Boost Biotech firm Leap Therapeutics has completely shifted its focus and rebranded to Cypherpunk Technologies Inc., making a bold move into digital assets. The company purchased 203,775 ZEC (~$50M) at an average price of $245, after raising $58.9M in a private round fully funded by Winklevoss Capital 💰 Cypherpunk plans to merge biotech innovation with a digital asset treasury strategy, centered around Zcash — the leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency powered by zero-knowledge proofs. 😎 ZEC recently surged nearly 10x, peaking at $735 before correcting to around $490. The new leadership believes its focus on privacy and “cypherpunk principles” will drive long-term value for shareholders.

Bitcoin Nears Local Bottom 🧐 According to the BTC Net Unrealized Profit indicator, selling pressure has eased, suggesting that Bitcoin may be approaching a local bottom. 📊 ⚠️ This doesn’t mean a price spike or new all-time high is imminent, but it indicates that the correction is likely winding down and BTC probably won’t fall much lower. Traders may see this as a potential accumulation zone before the next upward move. 📈

💳 Visa Tests Stablecoin Payouts in USDC Visa is piloting a new feature that lets creators, freelancers, and gig workers receive payments directly in USDC, even if companies send funds in fiat. 💵 🧩 The pilot runs through Visa Direct, with a full rollout planned for the second half of 2026 after partner testing wraps up.

🏦 JPMorgan launches its own blockchain money — JPM Coin JPMorgan Chase officially rolled out its deposit token “JPM Coin” for institutional clients — a blockchain-based version of real bank deposits. 💠 What it does: Allows 24/7 instant payments on Coinbase’s Base network, replacing slow banking transfers with near-instant settlements. 💵 The token represents actual USD deposits held at JPMorgan and can later expand to other currencies (a euro version “JPME” is already trademarked). 🤝 Partners in testing included Mastercard, Coinbase, and B2C2. JPM Coin will also be accepted as collateral on Coinbase. 📈 Unlike stablecoins, JPM Coin can earn yield — making it a more attractive option for big institutional players. In short: TradFi just took another big step on-chain.