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💧 Oil Back at Historically Cheap Levels Tavi Costa points out that oil, when adjusted for money supply, is now trading near some of the cheapest levels in its recorded history. Each time the market reaches this zone, people argue that the weakness will persist, but that has never held up over longer cycles. 🟡 Oil sits deep inside the “historically cheap” range 🟡 Money supply growth has outpaced commodity pricing 🟡 Past setups like this often preceded strong multi-year rallies 🟡 The market still treats oil as undervalued despite solid fundamentals

A clean reminder that extreme discounts on major commodities rarely last forever.

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Trading is a waiting game. Waiting games are the hardest games you'll ever play. They go against our natural tendency to want things fast. ✅ Subscribe to @trading

JUST IN: President Trump indicated that a deal regarding Ukraine is approaching very closely. @trading

🔥 Leverage Is Back: Traders Are Buying Every Dip Dip buyers aren’t just active right now, they’re doing it with leverage. Trading volumes in leveraged-long US equity ETFs just hit about 26B last week, the strongest surge since the rebound after the April sell-off. Here’s what stands out: 🟡 Only two periods in the last five and a half years saw higher leveraged dip buying: the late-2021 meme mania and the start of the 2022 bear market 🟡 Last week’s activity is more than double this year’s average 🟡 The number of leveraged equity ETFs has exploded, jumping by roughly 200 new products this year and hitting a record 701 by October 🟡 Retail and fast money traders are piling in aggressively, treating every pullback as an opportunity

Dip buying remains extremely strong, and leverage is amplifying it. This type of behavior usually signals confidence, but it can also show growing fragility if momentum turns.

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📉 The Hidden Hole in US Banks: 395B in Losses No One Talks About US banks are carrying a massive load of unrealized losses from bonds they bought back when rates were near zero. Once the Fed pushed rates higher in 2022–2023, those old low-yield bonds collapsed in value. On paper the losses don’t count, but the moment banks are forced to sell, they become real. Here’s the core of the problem: ● Banks are sitting on about 395B in losses from outdated low-yield bonds ● Around 6T is locked in underwater securities that can’t be sold without crystallizing losses ● This freezes lending capacity because banks won’t issue new loans while trapped in bad positions ● Regional banks are at the highest risk since they rely heavily on large uninsured deposits that flee instantly when confidence cracks ● A single scare about credit quality or asset weakness can trigger a bank run and force liquidation 📉 If rates stay high or rise again, these losses deepen, just like in late 2024 when they hit 750B 📈 If rates fall, bond prices recover and the balance sheets breathe again Big banks like JPM can absorb the pressure, smaller banks cannot handle a sudden shock The system looks calm only because confidence hasn’t been tested. Regional banks are living on borrowed time. If rates don’t ease or a credit scare hits, the stress hidden on balance sheets turns into real trouble fast. ✅ Subscribe to @trading

Your A+ setup can still be a stop loss. That’s not failure, that’s probability. But forcing a trade that wasn’t in your plan? That’s not probability, that’s sabotage. ✅ Subscribe to @trading

📉 7 Expensive Bad Habits New Traders Need To Drop New traders rarely fail because of market conditions. They fail because of habits that drain their capital long before their strategy has a chance to work. These are the seven that cost the most. 1️⃣ No stop losses You can’t control how much you win, but you can control how much you lose. Without a planned exit, a small pullback turns into hope, hope turns into panic, and a bad trade becomes a blown account. 2️⃣ Trading your opinions Your opinion can be very expensive. Trading your opinion against all other market participants can be very expensive. The market goes where it wants and when you disagree with where it is going it will cost you. 3️⃣Letting your ego trade for you Egos are expensive things in the markets, they cause trading without stop losses. Inflated egos cause a trader’s #1 priority to be proving they are right and refusing to admit when they are wrong. It is very expensive to let ego gratification be above making mone 4️⃣ Predicting instead of reacting Trading based on predictions can cost a lot of money when they are wrong. There is more to be made by reacting to what the market is doing based on quantified signals than predicting what you think it will do later. 5️⃣ Being stubborn Stubborn traders repeat mistakes. They let small losses grow, refuse feedback and keep fighting the same battles. Markets teach the lesson until you learn it. 6️⃣ No exit plan for winners A winning trade without an exit strategy often becomes a losing trade. Trailing stops and targets lock in gains before the market takes them back. 7️⃣ Trading too big Oversized positions kill accounts. Even a few strong wins won’t save you from a handful of oversized losses. Right sizing your positions is the difference between survival and blowups.

Good trading isn’t just about finding winners. It’s about eliminating the habits that guarantee failure.

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JUST IN: President Trump released a statement describing his phone call with China's President Xi Jinping as very positive, announcing planned visits and ongoing dialogue. • Trump will travel to Beijing in April. • Xi Jinping plans to visit the United States. • The leaders agreed to communicate frequently.

Enhanced US-China diplomatic engagement could foster positive market sentiment, especially for sectors sensitive to trade relations like technology and manufacturing.

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JUST IN: $AMZN plans to invest up to $50B starting in 2026 to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, building new data centers that will boost AWS capacity by 1.3 GW to support secure defense, intelligence, and research workloads. The initiative, which aligns with the U.S. AI Action Plan, is aimed at fast-tracking federal agencies’ access to Amazon’s advanced AI services and custom chips, highlighting the company’s deepening push into public-sector AI. ✅ Subscribe to @trade

JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 has extended its gains to over 2% on the day as AI stocks rebound. Alphabet stock (GOOGL) is up 6% today. @trade

📈 Institutions Are Going Risk On Institutional positioning shows a sharp shift out of cash and into risk assets. The latest readings are some of the most aggressive in more than a decade. 🔊 Cash allocation dropped to 3.7%, the lowest in 15 years 🔊 Cash has stayed below 4% for 5 straight months 🔊 Levels at 3.7% or lower have appeared only 20 times since 2002 🔊 Institutions are 34% net overweight global equities, the highest since Feb 2025 🔊 Positioning in commodities is the most overweight since Sep 2022

Positioning says it plainly. Big money is extremely bullish on risk assets.

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🗓 Key Events This Week Short but packed week. Almost all key data drops before the Thanksgiving break, so Tuesday and Wednesday will define the tone for USD, yields, and risk assets.

🔊 Tuesday

● September PPI inflation — early look at pipeline inflation. If producer costs rise, markets may price in stickier consumer inflation ahead. ● September retail sales — clean read on consumer strength. Strong sales support higher yields and a firmer USD, while weak numbers point to slowing demand. ● November CB consumer confidence — tracks household expectations. Rising confidence supports spending momentum, falling confidence signals pressure. ● October pending home sales — forward indicator for housing. A pickup implies resilience despite high mortgage rates, weakness suggests cooling demand.

🔊 Wednesday

● US Q3 2025 GDP — broad signal of economic momentum. A strong print reinforces higher for longer expectations, while a miss boosts dovish bets. ● September durable goods orders — key gauge of business investment. Strong orders point to stable corporate demand, weakness hints at slowing capex. ● September PCE inflation — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Sticky PCE will keep rate cuts off the table, softer PCE supports easing in yields. ● September new home sales — reflects real housing demand. Rising sales show buyers absorbing high rates, falling sales confirm sector fatigue.

🔊 Thursday

● Thanksgiving break — US markets closed. Liquidity drops sharply across global markets.

🔊 Friday

● US markets close early at 1 PM ET — thin volume can exaggerate intraday moves. ● Black Friday — major consumption day, early signals on holiday spending. Almost all market direction this week comes from a 48 hour macro cluster. Inflation, GDP, and spending data will set expectations heading into December. After Wednesday, low liquidity means choppier price action and less reliable signals. ✅ Subscribe to @trade

Execution = 1% Patience = 99% Trading in a nutshell. ✅ Subscribe to @trade

This is exactly why patience matters. Trader A worked harder. Trader B worked smarter. When you wait for the clean setups and manage your R:R properly, you can lose small, win big, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Quality > quantity every time.

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Develop a system, stick to the system ✅ Subscribe to @trade

This. ✅ Subscribe to @trade

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You literally have the infinite money glitch at your fingertips. But you keep self-sabotaging, burning accounts, and blowing opportunities just because you can’t wait 10 extra minutes. Read that again. It’s not the market. It’s not the setup. It’s not the prop firm. It’s your inability to delay gratification. You lose because you refuse to wait for your setup. Fix your patience, and the money glitch becomes real. ✅ Subscribe to @trade

❓Why Most Traders Quit Their Plan When It Matters Most Every trader starts with the same promise. This month will be different. This time you’ll follow your rules, respect your stops and journal every day. And for a few days it actually works. You’re focused. You’re disciplined. You’re that trader. Then the first real test hits. A losing streak. A setup that fails three times in a row. A day where sticking to your plan means watching others make money while you sit out. This is the moment where most traders break. The plan was easy when it was just theory. Living it when it’s uncomfortable is a different game. Most traders don’t fail because they lack knowledge. They fail because they quit the first time doing the right thing feels wrong. Moving stops because it hurts to take the loss. Overtrading because sitting out feels like missing out. Abandoning a strategy because trusting it through a rough patch feels harder than chasing something new. The trader you want to become is not built in the easy days. It’s built in the days where everything in you wants to quit and you don’t. That’s the real work. Not writing the plan but sticking to it when it gets hard. Anyone can follow rules when the market rewards them. The traders who make it are the ones who follow their rules when the market doesn’t. ✅ Subscribe to @trade