QCP Capital

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 2 April 25 🔽 It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump 😐 is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal". The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan 🇯🇵, China, Canada 🇨🇦, and the EU 🇪🇺. The U.S 🇺🇸. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global 🌎 players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea 🇰🇷 convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation 🤝 Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices. Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach. In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC 💸 continues to trade without conviction, while ETH 🪙 is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves. @QCP_Capital 🔥

QCP Asia Colour - 1 April 25 It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum. Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted. Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs. With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve. Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2. April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction. Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility: - 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings - 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI - 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour - 27 March 25 President Trump 😤 escalated tensions overnight, announcing a 25% tariff on automobile imports 🚘, effective from 3rd April, alongside the long-anticipated reciprocal tariffs against US' largest trade partners. Any further retaliation from these target economies risks injecting a fresh wave of uncertainty into an already volatile global trade landscape 🙀. Predictably, Japanese and South Korean equities traded in the red, with automobile stocks bearing the brunt of this leg down. In crypto markets, sentiment remains subdued despite headline-grabbing catalysts. GME's surprise $1.3bn capital raise for Bitcoin allocation 🪙 has yet to lift broader sentiment. The only silver lining is the steady inflow for BTC ETFs, totalling $944.9m since the 14Mar25 expiry. In contrast, 🔹ETH ETFs have recorded $112.1m in outflows over the same period. This presents a telling divergence that reflects the market's bifurcated institutional conviction. On-chain developments offer some hope for ETH. With Pectra now successfully deployed on the Hoodi testnet and a mainnet upgrade expected in Q2, could we see a reversal of this downward ETHBTC trend in the coming quarter? Looking ahead to tomorrows expiry, $12.2bn worth of BTC options will expire with max pain at $85,000. BTC has already begun grinding lower from Monday's highs, and both BTC and ETH front-end vols have collapsed by 10 vols. Spot is trading sideways and OI continues to bleed lower, signalling a broad lack of near-term optimism in the market. With the PCE Index data due tomorrow, we believe any short-term upside remains capped as markets wait for clarity from Trump's next move in this escalating trade war ✊ @QCP_Capital 🔥

QCP Asia Colour – 26 March 25 🆕 Risk assets continued their move higher as volatility retreated further. The S&P 500 has reclaimed the $5800 level, marking a 5% rebound from the trough just two weeks prior. BTC has surged 15% since briefly dipping below $77k 🔽 last week, with alts broadly outperforming over the same period. The spike in VIX, which topped at 30 and triggered a wave of stop losses along with a sharp reduction in positioning, has now retraced to 17. We see the equity move as a tactical relief rally driven by asset managers rotating back to into risk, rather than a response to any fundamental macro shift. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains front of mind. 🤑 Trump has teased further tariff measures ahead of the April 2nd deadline. However, the market still lacks clarity on the scope, timing and magnitude of these potential actions. Until then, we expect more sideways volatility 🏄‍♂️ Copper and Gold 🥇 have taken center stage. Copper has rallied to fresh all-time highs on the back of tightening supply dynamics. While hopes of 🇨🇳 China-led demand recovery are being cited, we believe these are only a secondary tailwind. Meanwhile, Gold has also breached the $3000 level 😮, though we anticipate this to act as a key psychological cap. In digital assets, we see scope for BTC 💸 to outperform tactically in the near term. In a surprising twist, GameStop (GME) has added BTC to their treasury. While this is not a first in the corporate adoption story, the symbolic weight of GME's meme status could rekindle speculative fervour among retail participants. As the 2021 playbook reminds us, retail flows, if coordinated, have the power to challenge institutional positioning. @QCP_Capital 🔥

🤝 QCP Asia Colour – 25 March 25 One of the fastest U.S. stock downturns in recent history may well be behind us - or so JPMorgan and a growing chorus of strategists are telling their clients, pointing to a confluence of improving sentiment and historically supportive seasonality. But what seasonality, exactly? Q2, and April in particular 🗓, has historically been one of the best periods for risk assets, second only to the festive December rally. The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualised return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin 💵 has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch - again, trailing only Q4. Relief rally or sustained rebound? Risk assets staged one of their strongest sessions of the year, helped by a temporary easing of fears around the April 2nd tariff deadline. Trump signalled twice on Monday that trading partners might secure exemptions or reductions, offering a reprieve that helped soothe market jitters 🥱 BTC briefly broke above $88K, with alts outperforming in what appears to be a short-term relief bounce. However, options markets remain cautious. Call skew hasn’t meaningfully shifted toward calls, with call skew only emerging from June onwards, suggesting traders are waiting to see how the tariff situation develops 🙈 As we approach Friday’s quarterly expiry, with the highest open interest in topside strikes above $100K 🔝, we don’t expect major volatility driven by options positioning alone. But attention will turn to the PCE inflation print, which could become the next key catalyst. In the highly unlikely event that the S&P 500 drifts lower toward $5,565 - a level where the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund is known to hold sizable long put positions - we could see pin risk emerge, potentially triggering a sharp spike in U.S. equities volatility 🇺🇸 @QCP_Capital 🔥

QCP Asia Colour – 24 March 25 📰 Crypto markets staged a modest rebound over the weekend, with 🪙 BTC and ETH 🪙 breaking back above $85k and $2k respectively. The recovery appears to have been led by equities, with equities futures clocking in a solid bounce. While recessionary concerns continue to hover, Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, though measured, helped soothe investors' nerves. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has improved from 32% last week to 45% this week 🔝 (49% being neutral), reflecting a broader easing of risk aversion. A notable bright spot came from spot BTC ETF inflows, which grew substantially with 8,775 BTC (equivalent to $744m 💸) purchased last week. This marks a sharp reversal after several consecutive weeks of net outflows and signals early signs of liquidity rotating back into crypto markets. With perp OI still subdued and funding rates flat, the rally appears driven by genuine spot demand rather than leverage, a critical distinction given that leverage-fuelled moves tend to unwind abruptly on liquidations. Yet, despite the renewed ETF momentum and today's follow-through rally, we remain cautious on prospects for a sustained breakout higher ⚠️. Upcoming tariff escalations slated for 2 April could once again pressure risk assets. Meanwhile, the options market reflects a more neutral wait-and-see stance, with implied vols trending lower and risk reversals turning flat across all tenors, a stark contrast to the more bearish skew observed just a week ago ⏱ We will be watching closely to see whether this week's recovery mirrors last Monday's price action, where crypto rallied on Sunday only to retrace sharply within 48 hours. @QCP_Capital 🔥

QCP Asia Colour – 20 March 25 Last night’s FOMC meeting delivered the upside catalyst markets had been waiting for, propelling BTC past $85K in a sharp rally. The key driver? The Fed's decision to scale back its “quantitative tightening” program starting in April. Markets interpreted this as an indirect rate cut, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will begin easing as soon as June. At the time of writing, three rate cuts are being priced in for 2025, with expectations for them in June, September, and December. Beyond the immediate excitement, the Fed's tone was notably cautious. Policymakers downgraded economy growth projections to 1.7% (a 0.4% reduction), while raising their inflation forecast to 2.8%, signaling a growing risk of stagflation. Additionally, the Fed's dot plot revealed a more hawkish shift from the one in December, with the number of officials forecasting no rate cuts in 2025 increasing to four. On the options front, market positioning has normalized, with skew shifting back toward calls. This stands in stark contrast to earlier in the week when the skew favored puts. The key test now comes at tonight's US open. Will the rally sustain, or will investors wake up to the reality that risks remain firmly in play? @QCP_Capital

QCP Asia Colour - 19 March 25 Today marks exactly one month since the S&P500 hit a new all-time high. The market euphoria and narrative of US exceptionalism, once dominant across Wall Street and Main Street, have faded into the background. The sentiment shift is undeniable, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?" The latest casualties of the downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds where they were stopped out and cut losses in the rout this month. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two of its teams, while Brevan Howard's Master Fund is down 5% year-to-date, prompting tighter risk limits for traders. For these traders at least, the music hasn't stopped just yet, but it is undeniably slowing. Geopolitical Pressures Mounting The gloves are off. Tit-for-tat reactions from Canada, China and potentially the EU are fueling a creeping cost spiral for the US. The biggest near-term risk? The looming 2 April deadline, when Trump is expected to roll out another round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most immediate headwind for risk assets. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, but we are surprised by the muted response in energy prices. This appears to stem from policy uncertainty in the US, where oil supply may increase. On the demand side, the ongoing global trade war is casting a long shadow. For now, we favor gold over oil as a more reliable barometer of risk sentiment. Watching for a Dovish Tilt Tonight's FOMC meeting is highly likely hold rates steady. However, we will be watching closely for any dovish shifts, particularly on growth and inflation expectations. Given that it will take months for the impact of tariffs to ripple through the economy, we expect the Fed to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. The 2 April tariff decision, while well-telegraphed, remains a key uncertainty. BTC at $80k: A True Floor or Just a Pause? Positions continue to be washed out as momentum and carry trades unwind. BTC has found some support at the $80k, but that seems tenuous at best amid broader macro weakness. We won't attempt to call the exact moment when the music stops, but in the short term, we struggle to identify meaningful tailwinds to reverse this rout. Our focus remain on principal-protected yield strategies to preserve the war chest while hedging against a prolonged downturn. @QCP_Capital

QCP Asia Colour - 17 March 25 Over the weekend a BTC whale 🐳 opened a $400m short position with an average entry price of $84k and liquidation price around $86k. This sparked volatility on Sunday, as some groups attempted to force a liquidation of a highly leveraged 40x position, which would have required just a 2.5% price move. Despite these efforts, the position remains open with almost $400k in funding fees. The 📊 Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 32% (Fear). reflecting persistent risk-off sentiment, particularly given the broader negativity in equity markets. This has further reinforced BTC's role as a macro hedge. For instance, on Friday, 300x of BTC-17MAR25-80k-P was aggressively bought, a clear move to hedge against weekend volatility. Despite the noise, BTC has held its ground above $80k, showing resilience compared to equities. In contrast, 🇺🇸 US equity futures opened lower this morning amid renewed recession fears. This follows comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. Markets will look to tonight's US Retail Sales data for further clarity and whether January's 0.9% decline in retail sales was the first sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or simply a pullback after a strong end to 2024's holiday season. With crypto narratives running thin, equities remain the primary focus. Last week's softer-than-expected US CPI print provided temporary relief, but the Fed is unlikely to pivot dovish just yet. Rate cuts remain uncertain, given ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. As such, we expect the Fed to keep rates steady at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, vols are likely to remain elevated as the market scans for any clues on the Fed's next move, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy shifts. @QCP_Capital

QCP Asia Colour - 12 March 25 Markets are on edge as trade tensions flare up once again, with new tariffs expected on April 2. Fresh 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports took effect today, prompting swift retaliation from the EU, which plans to impose €26bn (£22bn) in countermeasures starting next month. Volatility is spiking. The VIX hit 28 before settling at 26.6, though the Cboe VIX term structure flipping into backwardation hints at a potential market floor. Meanwhile, tonight’s CPI print could set the tone for rate expectations, as markets now price in four Fed cuts this year, up from just one in January. Will inflation data validate this shift or bring fresh turbulence? In crypto, the SEC has postponed ETF approvals for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE until May, while also launching a high-stakes roundtable on crypto regulation, set for March 21. But with Bitcoin ETFs seeing a $153.87M net outflow, driven by GBTC's 641 BTC offload, investors remain wary. What’s next for equities and crypto? Read our full analysis here. @QCP_Capital

QCP Asia Colour - 12 March 25 Markets are on edge as trade tensions flare up once again, with new tariffs expected on April 2. Fresh 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports took effect today, prompting swift retaliation from the EU, which plans to impose €26bn (£22bn) in countermeasures starting next month. Volatility is spiking. The VIX hit 28 before settling at 26.6, though the Cboe VIX term structure flipping into backwardation hints at a potential market floor. Meanwhile, tonight’s CPI print could set the tone for rate expectations, as markets now price in four Fed cuts this year, up from just one in January. Will inflation data validate this shift or bring fresh turbulence? In crypto, the SEC has postponed ETF approvals for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE until May, while also launching a high-stakes roundtable on crypto regulation, set for March 21. But with Bitcoin ETFs seeing a $153.87M net outflow, driven by GBTC's 641 BTC offload, investors remain wary. What’s next for equities and crypto? Read our full analysis here.

Friday's NFP data provided some relief for equities and crypto, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in May. With BTC 🪙 consolidating around $86k for most of Saturday ☹️, the stage seemed set for a steady recovery this week. However this momentum was derailed by the Bybit hackers 🔓 cashing out at least $300m of their record-breaking $1.5bn crypto heist during thin liquidity hours on Sunday causing BTC and ETH 🪙 to test key support levels once again. Today's price selloff may also be exacerbated by holders 💎 preemptively front-running further hacker-driven supply, now that the hackers have shown willingness to cash out rather than risk further losses — having already seen their stolen assets depreciate by 25%. In response, risk reversals have become even more bid for Puts over the past 24 hours, reflecting growing concerns over additional selling pressure While $80k remains a key support for BTC in the near term, the topside also appears capped, with the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve narrative largely priced in. Recent options flows indicate a more constructive bullish outlook emerging only from Q3 onwards. Until crypto finds a new narrative, we're likely to see an increased correlation between BTC and equities in the near term. Both risk assets are currently trading near their recent lows, and with tariff risks still looming, volatility could pick up heading into key U.S 🇺🇸. macro data releases — CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu). @QCP_Capital

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The market had been eagerly anticipating tonight's White House Crypto Summit, but Trump 🇺🇸 preempted expectations by signing the Executive Order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. While this was widely expected to be bullish for BTC, the market, in typical "sell the news" fashion, saw BTC plummet from $90k to $85k upon the signing 🔽 The timing of the signing definitely caught many off guard, especially those who had positioned for a more bullish outcome at tonight's summit. Vols sold off hard and risk reversals flipped back in favor of Puts as topside positioning for front dates were quickly taken off the table. The knee-jerk reaction lower likely stems from the realization that no actual budget has been allocated for BTC purchases💸 in the near term. Instead, the Reserve will initially be capitalized using BTC already held by the U.S. government, primarily those forfeited through criminal or civil asset forfeitures. However, this does not preclude future BTC accumulation. The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional BTC, provided they incur no incremental costs to taxpayers While this wasn't the outright bullish catalyst many were hoping for, it remains structurally positive for crypto. The prospect of random Silkroad BTC sales disrupting the market is now behind us, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term crypto strategy has been reaffirmed. With the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement now out of the way, expectations for tonight's White House Crypto Summit have been tempered. Instead, the focus will be on tonight's NFP. Given how fragile equities are looking, any surprises in the data could spark volatility across risk assets — including crypto. @QCP_Capital

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