Alex Friedman | Crypto Future

JUST IN: 🇺🇸US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, highest since September 2021.👀

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US unemployment rate in 1 less than hour The US unemployment rate drops at 08:30 AM ET. ➡️ Expected: 4.4% 🔼 If unemployment prints above 4.4%, markets may lean toward a softer economy and higher odds of Fed cuts, which is usually supportive for risk assets. 🔽 If it prints below 4.4%, the labor market looks tighter and that can add short term pressure.

Let that sink in.. 😎

JUST IN: Fidelity reports that Bitcoin's 4 year cycle may be over 👀 Investors "believe we could be entering a supercycle...For reference, a supercycle in commodities in the 2000s spanned nearly a decade." 🚀

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UPDATE: 🇯🇵 Japan now requires crypto exchanges to hold reserves for investor protection.

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It looks like a bear trap. Expecting a strong bounce soon. 👀

FEAR & GREED INDEX: Not many will tell you this, but according to the F&G-Index, we're currently in the "Prime Buying Area". From 2018 to 2025, this was ALWAYS the best opportunity in crypto. A bottom is forming here. In 2026 we will see a new ATH for crypto imo 🔥🔥

Nano Labs founder says Bitcoin mining farms in Xinjiang, China are shutting down rapidly. Bitcoin hashrate fell 8%, implying around 400,000 miners are offline. 👀

Bitcoin institutional holdings reach ~5.94M BTC, nearly 30% of circulating supply across exchanges, ETFs, public companies, and governments. Bullish 🔥🔥

Key Economic Events This Week: Tuesday - October Retail Sales data, November Jobs Report Thursday - November CPI Inflation data, December Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Friday - October PCE Inflation data, November Existing Home Sales data, MI Inflation Expectations data, MI Consumer Sentiment data Plus 5 Fed speaker events throughout the week

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Altcoins are forming a pattern here Multi-year base. Retests respected. Momentum is quietly returning. Once this breaks… It becomes a parabola. Ignore the noise. This is the calm before chaos. The bullish kind.

Altseason knocking on the door? 👀 OTHERS dominance chart shows where altcoins usually bottom and where big alt cycles start. Right now, OTHERS dominance is sitting very close to the same base zone where it bottomed in the past: - In 2017 before the big altcoin rum. - In 2020 before the 2021 alt season. MACD is flattening and RSI is at historical bottom zone, similar setups in the past appeared before multi-year expansions in alt dominance. This alone suggests altcoins are much closer to a bottom than a top. Now let’s connect this with history. In September 2019, the Fed clearly said it would end QT. Around the same time: • OTHERS dominance bottomed • In October 2019, the Fed started buying $60B per month in T-bills • By March 2020, this slowly turned into full QE From that point: - Altcoins kept trending - The cycle topped only in early 2022, when the Fed again hinted tightening Now look at the last 4 years. Altcoins kept falling or staying weak, even though Bitcoin went up strongly from its bottom. The reason was simple: - The Fed was draining liquidity - Liquidity drain always hurts altcoins the most But this phase is changing again. What’s different now? • The Fed has already started injecting liquidity again. • T-bill buying starts now, around $40B per month. • This is not full QE yet, but liquidity support has clearly begun. Markets are also looking ahead. Why? Because, the market is expecting major liquidity catalysts. • Corporate tax cuts are being discussed, which improves earnings and boost stock prices • Plans like a $2,000 dividend check are being talked about, another liquidity event • A new Fed Chair is expected, and markets see a more growth-focused approach Even on rate cuts: The dot plot shows only 1-2 cuts But remember, Powell indirectly said no rate cuts for December but it happened anyway. That happened because: - The economy is not strong - If the economy was healthy, the Fed would not be buying T-bills at all This matters a lot for altcoins. Another signal: The Russell 2000 index just made a new high. Small caps usually move first when liquidity expectations improve So the big picture looks like this: - Altcoins are near long-term base levels - Liquidity conditions have started to turn positive - Markets are pricing more liquidity ahead, not less This is why it’s very possible that: • Altcoins are close to a bottom vs Bitcoin • The real altseason starts in 2026, not before • Similar to other cycles, we may see a good run in next 6-12 month based on how economy improves. In normal case we expect others dominance will reach back to 12-13% which give a good alt season. In bull case , If other.d jump towards 18%-20% in 2026, we might see biggest alts season of history. In that phase: - Alts can outperform Bitcoin - And fall less than Bitcoin during pullbacks, because liquidity is improving This isn’t about hype or the 4-year cycle. It’s about liquidity. And liquidity always reaches altcoins early.

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Japan, a key driver of global markets, is expected to see the BoJ raise rates by 25 bps to 0.75% at its Dec. 18–19 meeting, the first hike in 11 months and the highest level in 30 years. 😳👀