Trade Watcher

🌍 The Economist: What Will Actually Shape 2026 The new World Ahead 2026 report is out, and it paints a year that feels experimental, unstable and full of sharp turns. Here is a clean, readable breakdown in simple English. 🇺🇸 America at 250 The US celebrates its anniversary in the middle of deep political division. The country sees itself in two different colors. Even if Congress shifts, Trump’s tariff-driven and executive-order style remains the center of power. 🌐 A world without a clear order We are not going back to the Cold War, but the old global structure is fading. Instead of fixed blocs, the world is moving toward flexible “coalitions of the willing” built around trade, defense or climate. Instinct often beats protocol. ⚔️ Peace or new conflict Gaza may hold a fragile pause, but Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar continue. russia and China maintain pressure in grey zones. New tension builds in the Arctic, cyberspace and underwater cable routes. 🇪🇺 Europe’s impossible mix Europe tries to boost defense, keep growth alive, support trade and stay green. Doing all of this at once is unrealistic. Rising deficits and a stronger populist wave are the real challenges ahead. 🇨🇳 China sees an opening With the US leaning into protectionism, China positions itself as a “reliable partner” for the Global South. Deals come quietly and pragmatically. With Washington, Beijing aims for tactical cooperation rather than open confrontation. 📉 Growing economic risk The global economy is slowing. Developed nations run on debt, raising the odds of bond-market stress. The change of Fed chair in May becomes a crucial moment for liquidity and risk appetite. 🤖 AI anxiety keeps rising The AI investment boom might be covering real economic weaknesses. If the bubble pops, the hit spreads everywhere. Job anxiety grows the fastest among educated professionals. 🌱 Climate shows both hope and doubt Global emissions likely peaked. Clean tech accelerates in developing nations. Companies keep going green but stop shouting about it. Geothermal energy turns into a serious growth field. ⚽️ Sport becomes political The 2026 World Cup in North America may carry more tension than celebration. At the same time, the Enhanced Games in Las Vegas with fully allowed doping spark a new debate about what “fair” even means. 💊 Biotech and the post-Ozempic era Cheaper and stronger GLP-1 weight-loss drugs appear, even in pill form. Society now faces the moral question of whether pharmaceutical self-enhancement becomes a new baseline. 🎯 The big picture According to The Economist, 2026 becomes a year of experiments. Politics, economics, technology and even human biology move into untested territory. The boundaries between natural and artificial keep fading.

The world steps into a year where no one is following old instructions, and the future is shaped by rapid, messy, high-stakes trial and error.

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📈 What the Fed’s Balance Sheet Move Could Mean for Markets The Fed is preparing to expand its balance sheet again for the first time since 2022. It sounds big, but the effect on markets will likely be small. 🪙What changes now From December 1 the Fed will stop reducing its holdings of government bonds. Mortgage-backed securities will still mature, and the money from them will go into short-term Treasury bills. That keeps the balance sheet about the same size, so liquidity in the system barely changes for now. 🏦 Why expansion is next As the US economy grows, banks need more reserves to stay stable. If reserves drop too low, funding markets can break, as they did in 2019. To avoid that, the Fed plans to slowly expand its balance sheet again in 2026. Most analysts expect around 20 billion dollars in Treasury bill purchases each month, or about 240 billion a year. That is very small compared with the three trillion added during 2020. 💵 Why this is not real QE The Fed will buy short-term Treasury bills, not long-term bonds. Real QE happens when the Fed buys longer bonds and removes risk from the market, which lifts asset prices. Buying bills just manages liquidity inside the banking system and is not meant to stimulate markets. 📉 What this means for investors The move is slightly positive for liquidity but not enough to drive markets higher. The dollar may weaken a bit, and traders could get overly optimistic, but the effect is limited. 🔍 The bigger story The Treasury’s decisions matter more. It chooses how much debt to issue as short-term bills or long-term bonds. If it issues more long-term bonds, liquidity tightens and offsets what the Fed is doing. 📣The takeaway • QT ends on December 1 • Balance sheet stays flat at first, then expands slowly • Purchases focus on short-term bills, not long-term bonds • The pace is very small, about 20 billion per month • This is not QE, just liquidity maintenance • The real market impact depends on how the Treasury manages its debt mix 🐴 Join the White Horse

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Positional Trading : predict the next monthly candle Swing trading : predict the next weekly candle Day trading : predict the next daily candle Scalping : predict the next h4/h1 candle You just need one candle. 🐴 Join the White Horse

JUST IN: President Trump has signed a bill ending the US government shutdown. The 43-day shutdown, which set a record for length, is now over. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

JUST IN: The United States has produced its final penny, marking the end of a 232-year production run that began in 1793. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

JUST IN: Gold prices have surpassed $4,200 per ounce, while silver prices have climbed nearly 5% in a single day. This rally signals markets anticipating the convergence of stimulus checks, rate cuts, and inflation. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

❓ What Is a Call Option A call option is a type of financial contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock at a specific price before a certain date. Think of it as reserving a stock at today’s price in case it goes up later. 📊 The basics Each stock option contract usually covers 100 shares. So if a call option is priced at $2, it actually costs $200 total ($2 × 100 shares). The only time this changes is if the company’s stock splits or reverse splits. When you buy a call option, you are not required to keep it until it expires. You can sell it earlier if the price moves in your favor. 💵 How traders make money A call option gains value when the underlying stock price goes up. The more it rises above your chosen strike price (the agreed buying price), the more valuable your option becomes. If you expect a stock to rise soon, buying a call option lets you benefit from that move with less money upfront than buying the stock itself. 🕯 Buying vs selling 📈 The buyer of a call option pays for the right to buy the stock later. 📉 The seller of a call option collects that payment and is agreeing to sell the stock if the buyer decides to exercise the contract. If the seller already owns the stock, this is called a covered call, which is a popular way to earn extra income on shares you already hold. ⏳ Time and value An option’s price changes for several reasons: 🟢 Delta shows how much the option price moves when the stock moves $1. 🟢 Gamma shows how quickly Delta itself changes as the stock moves. 🟢 Theta is time decay — every day closer to expiration slightly reduces the option’s value. 🟢 Vega shows how changes in market volatility affect the option price. ⚖️ The bigger picture Call options are not traditional investments. They are short-term bets on price movement. They can help you: ✔️Create leverage with small capital ✔️Earn income on stocks you already own ✔️Manage or hedge portfolio exposure But they can also expire worthless if the stock doesn’t move as expected. That’s why traders treat them as tools, not guarantees.

In simple terms, a call option is a flexible way to bet on a stock going up without buying it outright. You just need to understand the timing, cost, and risk that come with it.

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JUST IN: Kevin Hassett commented on housing policy, stating he is unsure whether Trump has decided on introducing 50-year mortgages. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

JUST IN: Kevin Hassett warns that a government shutdown will negatively impact this quarter's GDP. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

JUST IN: The SMH Semiconductor ETF recorded $1.3 billion in inflows last week, marking a new high. • This exceeds the prior record of inflows from Q1 2022. • It doubles the average weekly inflows for the year. • Simultaneously, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF showed related activity.

These record inflows indicate robust investor interest in the semiconductor sector, which could enhance market sentiment and support upward price momentum in tech-related assets amid ongoing AI and chip demand.

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JUST IN: Anthropic has announced it will invest $50 billion in building data centers in the US. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

💰 Ray Dalio: The Year the Dollar Died and Markets Took Off 💥 In 1971 the US ran out of money and quietly defaulted by leaving the gold standard. Money as people knew it stopped existing. 📈 Instead of a crash the stock market jumped almost 25%. The same pattern appeared in 1933 when the dollar was devalued.

Ray Dalio says both moments proved one thing. When governments create money to pay their debts, assets surge while the currency slowly loses its worth.

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JUST IN: U.S. House Majority Leader Scalise announced that the House will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown on Wednesday around 7 p.m. ET. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

JUST IN: Scott Bessent stated that a proposed $2,000 rebate would target individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, but the plan has not been finalized. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

📈 Gold vs Stocks: 25 Years, One Clear Winner A $10K investment made in January 2000 tells the story best. After 25 years of inflation spikes, recessions, and policy swings, one asset quietly came out on top. 🟡 Gold: $10K → $126,596 🟡 S&P 500 (with dividends): $10K → $77,495 ❕ That’s a 63% higher return for gold over the same period. 🔽 Stocks had brutal drawdowns in 2001–02, 2008–09, and 2022, which slowed compounding even with dividends. 🔼Gold, on the other hand, gained from inflation waves, currency volatility, and consistent central bank demand. Since 2000, gold hasn’t just held value — it compounded steadily while surviving every major shock.

For long-term savers, the takeaway is simple: resilience beats hype. Gold didn’t need bull runs to win; it just kept doing what it’s meant to do.

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Don’t look for perfect answers in an imperfect market. Chasing perfect is following your trading plan and letting probabilities play out. It’s NOT: - chasing a 100% winrate - chasing concepts that work a 100% of the time You’ll just end up wasting years of your time. 🐴 Join the White Horse

JUST IN: SoftBank's stock plunged more than 10% after revealing a $5.8 billion sale of Nvidia shares. 🦄 Powered by White Horse

❕ If you’re struggling in trading, understand this. So was every single trader who’s ever made it. ☄️ Every one of them sat in front of the charts for months feeling lost, second-guessing their entries, doubting if they were even meant for this. You’re not behind, you’re in the exact phase that builds real traders. ❓ The difference between the ones who make it and the ones who quit isn’t talent, it’s tolerance. Tolerance for uncertainty. For losing. For looking wrong. For being misunderstood by people who’ll never get what this life demands. ❗️ Trading isn’t meant to feel easy. It’s meant to test your patience, your discipline, and your belief when everything else tells you to walk away. 📝 If I could recommend one thing, document your process. Track your trades, your emotions, your sessions. You’ll start to realize progress isn’t made in profits, it’s made in data and reflection. 🛡 Every professional trader you look up to has been through this storm. They didn’t escape it, they learned how to operate inside it.

Moral of the story: you’re not failing, you’re in training. This business rewards those who stay long enough to become the person capable of surviving it.

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