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QCP Asia Colour - 26 Feb 25 📰 After a whirlwind week, we've come full circle — back where we started last Monday. Over the weekend, Trump announced the formation of a U.S 🇺🇸. Crypto Strategic Reserve. While some believed this move was largely priced-in, others saw it as the only catalyst strong enough to propel crypto to new all-time highs — albeit later in the year. Instead, Trump used this lifeline early, pulling BTC back above $90k during low liquidity hours on Sunday 💸 For a president who thrives on being the market's hero, last week's risk asset performance was anything but inspiring. His slew of new tariffs and shakier than expected Ukraine-Russia 🇺🇦🇷🇺 peace talks rattled investor confidence. So, while the timing of the SBR was somewhat unexpected, the political calculus was clear — Trump needed a win before his approval ratings starts slipping, a metric he likely takes very personally. Following last night's clutch announcement, it's likely that Trump will do whatever it takes to avoid presiding over a prolonged stock market drawdown, a topic he previously championed but struggled with in recent weeks. 🔜 Are We Back in the Game? With the encouraging recovery in risk assets, are we back in the game? Not quite. BTC is still trading near the bottom of its multi-month range and frontend crypto vols are still relatively elevated with both majors still reflecting a Put Skew till end-March. The VIX is also elevated, signaling broader market unease in risk assets overall, particularly after the recent tariff escalations from the U.S. administration. Just when we think Trump has exhausted his cards, he may still have more surprises up his sleeve. Which key events could shape the market this week — and could they be the catalyst for that elusive all-time high ❓ @QCP_Capital

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QCP Asia Colour - 25 February 25 😱 A global risk-off move has sent equities, gold, and BTC lower, with whispers of stagflation gaining traction on the street. Soft data suggests tariffs are already weighing on consumer sentiment, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index miss (98 vs. 103 expected). Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated across consumer surveys. While it’s too early to confirm a stagflationary trajectory, the market’s reaction to recent developments signals growing unease. 💹 The U.S. administration’s confirmation of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports (effective March 3) has further dampened sentiment. With expectations of tougher actions against China 🇨🇳, investors are reducing risk exposure amid heightened uncertainty. The government is proving it’s not just bark but bite, adding to market jitters. We see limited marginal buyers 💳 for risk assets in this environment, increasing the likelihood of further downside as crowded trades unwind. The “Magnificent 7” trade, a standout in 2024, is unraveling, with only META and NFLX positive YTD. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey confirms that “Long Magnificent 7” remains the most crowded trade, with "Long USD" and "Long Crypto" coming in second and third respectively. Unsurprisingly, long USD 💵 positioning is starting to reverse, with the recent collapse forcing traders to trim exposure. BTC continues to trade in line with risk assets, and ETF outflows confirm a lack of conviction. In volatile markets, crypto remains the first asset to be liquidated as traders rush to reduce exposure. Key Near-Term Events: NVDA Earnings & PCE Data • NVDA reports earnings tonight post-market, a key event given its AI-driven chip demand exposure. A miss or cautious guidance could trigger another leg down for risk assets. • Friday’s PCE print (YoY expected at 2.5%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Until clearer signs emerge that inflation is heading toward 2%, the Fed is likely to maintain rates at current levels. Markets now price two cuts in 2025, with the first in June or July ☀️ In the coming weeks, consumer and retail sentiment surveys will be key. These indicators often lead actual economic data and could provide early stagflation warning signs. Stay cautious—markets remain fragile 🙃 @QCP_Capital

QCP Asia Colour – 25 February 25 It has only been two days since the Bybit hack, in which approximately $1.4b worth of ETH was stolen, yet crypto prices and implied vols have barely reacted. The price action underscores the growing maturity of the crypto landscape since the FTX collapse in 2022, particularly in the crypto credit market. Bybit's ability to swiftly secure a bridge loan to cover the liquidity gap during a critical period highlights the resilience of the lending space and the ample liquidity available. This sector has steadily recovered since 2022 and experienced a significant spike ahead of last year's U.S. Presidential election. Every facet of crypto—from custodial and security solutions to corporate governance and transparency—has strengthened with each past crisis. In fact, Bybit's ability to withstand over $6b in withdrawals following the largest crypto heist to date could be seen as a mark of confidence rather than a setback for the exchange. What's next for ETH? With Bybit’s buying over the weekend, ETH has held up well—but now that the liquidity gap is closed, risk reversals suggest fears of further downside into March. Meanwhile, the hacker—allegedly North Korea-backed Lazarus Group—now holds 0.42% of ETH supply, making them the 14th largest ETH holder. Will they sell? And what does this mean for ETH going forward? @QCP_Capital

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