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โก๏ธ DRAFTKINGS ENTER PREDICTION MARKETS
Sports betting DraftKings just launched DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-approved app that lets users trade on real-world events.
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๐ HYPERLIQUID HIP-3 SURPASSES $10B IN TRADING VOLUME
Hyperliquidโs HIP-3 markets have crossed $10 billion in cumulative trading volume, a 2x surge from $5B just three weeks ago.
HIP-3 allows users to permissionlessly deploy synthetic perpetual markets for real-world assets like equities, fully onchain and trading 24/7.
Since launch HIP-3 has attracted:
> 32,000 unique traders
> 4.8M+ trades
> $1.6M in fees generated
> $200M+ in open interest, printing near-daily ATHs
On a standalone basis, HIP-3 would already rank as the 9th-largest perpetual DEX.
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๐ช STABLECOINS DOMINATE ONCHAIN SETTLEMENT
Stablecoin transfer volume (USDT + USDC) now averages around $192B per day on a 90D-SMA, nearly 2ร the combined transfer volume of the top five crypto assets (~$103B/day).
The gap highlights how onchain liquidity, payments, and settlement activity is increasingly dominated by stablecoins, rather than native assets.
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โบ๏ธ TRON INTEGRATES WITH BASE
TRON has officially integrated with Ethereum L2 Base via LayerZero, enabling seamless bridging of $TRX into Baseโs ecosystem.
Users can now access TRX directly on Base through decentralized exchanges like Aerodrome, strengthening cross-chain interoperability.
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๐จNEW WHALES ARE CHANGING BITCOINโS PRICE BASE
Nearly 50% of $BTCโs realized cap now comes from new whale buyers.
Data shows a surge in recent buyers, pointing to strong demand at current prices.
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๐ WALL STREET GIANTS LOWER BITCOIN PRICE TARGETS
Bitcoin price predictions are being revised lower, with cuts reaching 50%.
- Citi's 12-month target: $143K from $181K
- Standard Chartered's 2026 forecast: $150K from 300k
- Cathie Wood's 2030 projection: $1.2M from $1.5M
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๐ TOM LEEโS FUND SEES BITCOIN BACK TO $60K SOON
Fundstrat, led by Tom Lee, told clients to expect a major crypto correction in H1 2026.
In an internal report, crypto head Sean Farrell said his base case points to $BTC at $60Kโ$65K, $ETH at $1.8Kโ$2K, and $SOL at $50โ$75.
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๐ WHALE BUYS THE DIP: SCOOPS $221M BTC
Three fresh wallets snapped up 2,509 BTC worth ~$221M over the past 24 hours from FalconX, indicating a single whale aggressively accumulating the dip.
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๐ $50 MILLION LOST FROM A COPY-PASTE MISTAKE
An analyst spotted a user lost ~$50M $USDT after copying the wrong wallet address.
Victim tested with $50 USDT to their own wallet.
Scammer instantly created a look-alike address with the same first & last characters.
The victim copied the poisoned address from transaction history and sent $49.9M $USDT straight to the scammer.
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โ ๏ธ ALERT: THE CRYPTO BEAR MARKET HAS BEGUN
CryptoQuant now says Bitcoin has likely entered a bear market phase.
The report says $BTC could drop to $70K in 3โ6 months, and as low as $56K later in H2 2026.
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โถ๏ธ PRO-BITCOIN SENATOR ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT
๐บ๐ธSen. Cynthia Lummis, a top U.S. crypto supporter, says she wonโt run again for reelection.
This adds uncertainty to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and market structure bill.
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๐จAAVE HOLDS $52B CRYPTO LENDING DEPOSITS
As per Token Terminal, around 60% of all crypto lending deposits worth 52 BILLION are currently held on $AAVE.
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๐จ POLYMARKET OUTPERFORMS MOST CRYPTO PLATFORMS ON USER RETENTION
Polymarket now outperforms 85% of crypto platforms on user retention, according to a new report by Dune and Keyrock.
The prediction market has seen 1.75M+ unique addresses, with the last 8 consecutive months recording 215K+ active users, and 75โ90% returning participation each month.
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๐จ$7.1 TRILLION AT STAKE FOR WITCHING DAY!
About $7.1 TRILLION in stock, ETF, and index options expire today, the largest on record.
These mass expiries can cause market swings, but Citi says "volatility is usually lower than feared."
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Our 2025 Predictions Reviewed โญ๏ธ
Every December, crypto timelines flood with bold predictions. But very few people go back and audit what actually played out.
So, hereโs a clean review of how our 10 predictions for 2025 performed.
Scorecard:
โ
3 right
๐จ 4 partially right
โ 3 wrong
Overall, we were directionally right on most calls - but the timing, scale, or specifics didnโt always land.
โ๏ธ Predictions We Got Right
1๏ธโฃ Crypto will achieve mass adoption via stablecoins & payments
Stablecoins became one of the fastest-growing niches in 2025. They accounted for ~30% of crypto transaction volume early in the year, hit record annual volumes, and their market cap doubled YoY. Crypto cards also surged; volumes grew ~5x from January to November. Big TradFi names like Stripe, Klarna, and Cloudflare entered the space.
2๏ธโฃ More countries mining Bitcoin
State-linked BTC mining expanded beyond El Salvador & Bhutan. Japan launched a grid-stability mining initiative, and France proposed using surplus nuclear power for BTC mining.
3๏ธโฃ A major crypto hack will cause market stress
Bybit was hacked for ~$1.5B (the largest crypto hack ever) accounting for nearly half of 2025โs total losses.
๐จ Partially Right Predictions
4๏ธโฃ Big 2025 rally driven by structural changes
Spot ETFs and US exchange listings expanded, but timing was off. Altcoin ETFs came late, and BTC dominated gains while altcoins lagged.
5๏ธโฃ The market will top in H1 2025 or H1 2026
Altcoins topped early 2025, but BTC and total market cap hit new ATHs in H2. A potential H1 2026 top is still possible.
6๏ธโฃ A major central bank will buy BTC
The Czech Central Bank bought BTC; but it wasnโt a major central bank and was framed as a test allocation.
7๏ธโฃ Privacy & identity as key narratives
Privacy absolutely hit. Zcash went mainstream and rallied ~10x, with institutional backing (Gemini, Cypherpunk). Identity, however, didnโt follow through.
โ Predictions We Got Wrong
8๏ธโฃ DEXs flipping CEXs
Didnโt happen. But DEX volumes hit ATHs and UX improvements (trading bots, new platforms) drove strong growth.
9๏ธโฃ >50% of BTC hash rate from the US
US dominance rose above 40%, but didnโt cross 50%.
๐ Non-sanctioned country using crypto for trade
Didnโt materialize. However, BRICS launched a gold-backed trade currency prototype, signaling movement in that direction.
โโโ
โก๏ธ Final Takeaway
2025 wasnโt a perfect year for predictions, but the big themes played out - just slower or differently than expected.
Onward to 2026. ๐
Checkout the original predictions video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HvSFVJgXNQ
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๐จ ARTHUR HAYES OFFLOADS MORE ETH
Arthur Hayes continues trimming his holdings, sending over 500 ETH (~$1.5M) to Galaxy Digital today.
Over the past month, Hayes has sold more than $40 million worth of altcoins.
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๐ช SOLO MINER TURNS $86 INTO 3.12 BTC JACKPOT
A solo Bitcoin miner rented under $100 worth of hashpower via NiceHashโs EasyMining platform and successfully mined an entire block, earning 3.12 BTC, worth roughly $271,000!
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โผ๏ธ SEC LAWSUIT CLAIMS THIRD-PARTY BITCOIN MINING SERVICES ARE SECURITIES OFFERINGS
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a lawsuit against Danh C Vo, the founder of Bitcoin mining company VBit, accusing him of operating an illegal securities scheme by selling unregistered securities in the form of third-party Bitcoin mining hosting services.
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๐จ COINBASE SUES THREE U.S. STATES
Coinbase has sued Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut, escalating a legal fight to clarify that prediction markets fall under CFTC jurisdiction, not state gaming regulators.
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๐จ JUMP TRADING SUED FOR $4B OVER ROLE IN TERRA/LUNA $40B COLLAPSE!
The administrator overseeing the wind-down of Terraform Labs has filed a $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading, its co-founder William DiSomma, and former president Kanav Kariya.
The lawsuit accuses them of contributing to the 2022 collapse of Do Kwon's crypto empire through manipulation, concealment, and self-dealing. Key allegations include secret 2019 agreements granting Jump discounted Luna token options, a covert "gentlemen's agreement" to prop up TerraUSD's dollar peg in May 2021, and false public claims of algorithmic recovery among others.
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