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๐ฐ ARK BUYS MORE CRYPTO STOCKS!
Ark Invest bought $10.56M of BitMine, $5.9M of Coinbase, and $8.85M of Bullish on Wednesday.
Cathie Wood says a โreal breakโ in inflation is coming in 2026.
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FREAKY FRIDAY: QUAD WITCHING
BTC ๐ฐ has dumped on every quad witching event this year; Will the final market Friday of 2025 be any different?
> Quad Witching occurs four times a year- on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December- when four derivative contracts expire simultaneously
(stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and options on index future)
> The final quad witching of 2025 lands on Friday, December 19.
So far, the pattern has been hard to ignore: ๐ก
BTC fell 16.6% around March 21, 8.5% around June 20, and 7.9% around September 19, each coinciding with quad witching expiries.
> When these contracts expire, traders are forced to close, roll, or settle positions, triggering mechanical buying and selling.
> The result is often outsized volume, sharp intraday swings, and late-session volatility.
๐ฒ As crypto trades increasingly in lockstep with global risk markets,
Bitcoin has tended to absorb the aftershocks of these expiries,
with its growing sensitivity to global liquidity conditions and equity positioning.
๐ฝOver the last three triple/quad witching events, BTC sold off shortly after expiry, as institutions unwound hedges and reduced risk exposure.
Historically:
๐ Market volume jumps 50โ100% above average
๐ฏ Volatility spikes into the close
โฌ๏ธ BTC has tended to dip post-expiry, due to forced flows.
Santa Rally Caseโ๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธ
A bullish outcome hinges on volatility compression after expiry.
The price-pinning effect fades once short-term options expire, allowing markets to move more freely instead of being held near key strike levels.
Supporting factors:
+ Implied volatility drops post-witching
+ If CPI (Dec 18) cools and funding markets stay calm
+ Risk appetite could rebound into year-end, allowing BTC to consolidate and grind higher
Santa Dump Case ๐ฅ
The bearish risk is a simultaneous unwind of equity and crypto hedges. December is prime time for profit-taking.
Bearish catalysts:
- CPI surprise or hawkish BoJ rate hike (expected Dec 18)
- Support levels failing once dealer hedging disappears
- BTC historically leading downside moves during risk resets
Key Takeaway ๐
> Quad witching amplifies existing market stress rather than creating it, and in 2025 Bitcoin has been on the wrong side of that amplification.
> With CPI, central bank decisions, and expiry all converging, markets are set for turbulence.The direction of the market will be clear after Friday, not during it.
Until then: expect noise, respect volatility, and donโt mistake mechanical flows for conviction!๐ฅ 19๐ 8๐คฎ 3๐ฉ 3
โผ๏ธ BINANCE OFFERS UP TO $5M IN WHISTLEBLOWER REWARD!
Binance has announced a whistleblower reward of up to $5 million for verifiable evidence of fraudulent third-party "listing agents" who falsely claim connections to the exchange and charge fees to influence token listings.
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: ๐ฎ๐ณ INDIA APPROVES COINBASE'S MINORITY STAKE IN COINDCX
Coinbase Global Inc. has acquired a minority stake in Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX in a deal valued at $2.45 billion. The move aims to expand Coinbase's footprint in India and the Middle East.
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๐จ CFTCโS CAROLINE PHAM HEADING TO MOONPAY
Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham says sheโll join crypto firm MoonPay as Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, once the Senate confirms her replacement and heโs sworn in.
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๐จ JUST IN: TETHER UNVEILS PEARPASS
Tether has launched PearPass, a peer-to-peer password manager that keeps credentials stored only on the userโs device and never in the cloud.
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๐จ COINBASE ENTERS PREDICTION MARKETS & STOCKS TRADING
Coinbase Global Inc. has announced its expansion into prediction markets and stock trading.
Brian Armstrong says โCoinbase is now the best place to trade every asset, not just crypto.โ
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๐จHAPPENING NOW: ๐บ๐ธPresident Trump delivers an Address to the Nation.
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๐บ๐ธJUST IN: SEC CLARIFIES CRYPTO CUSTODY RULES
The SEC has released new guidance on how broker-dealers can custody crypto asset securities.
Itโs interim clarity while the SEC works on a broader, long-term custody framework.
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๐บ๐ธJUST IN: The Federal Reserve has withdrawn a 2023 restrictive policy which limited "novel" crypto activities
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๐จ $139M LIQUIDATION CASCADE
BTC briefly tapped $90K, then violently reversed โ wiping out $135M leveraged longs. Short liquidations came in at 3.7M
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๐จJUST IN: Total crypto market sees nearly $100 BILLION in gains and losses within 1 HOUR, as volatility peaks.
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โกJUST IN: BITCOIN BACK ABOVE 90k
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๐BREAKING: SILVER OVERTAKES GOOGLE BY MARKET CAP
It's now the 4th largest asset by market cap.
๐ 23๐ฅ 9
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๐จLONG-TERM BTC SELLING NEARS EXHAUSTION
K33 Research reveals 20% of Bitcoin supply has reactivated over the past 2 years.
Research Head Lunde expects this selling to slow in 2026, clearing the way for MORE BUYERS next year.
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๐จINSTITUTIONS ARE BUYING MORE BTC THAN MINERS PRODUCE
Capriole data shows institutional demand has exceeded newly mined Bitcoin for 3 straight days, with buyers absorbing 13% more than daily supply.
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๐ WHATโS HAPPENING AT AAVE?
In the past 24 hours, $AAVE saw many positive developments.
+ The SEC concluded its 4-year investigation into the protocol with no enforcement.
+ Founder Stani Kulechov unveiled a 2026 roadmap.
+ He also personally bought $10M worth of AAVE.
Not to mention, the plethora of developments in the days prior - TVL rebound since October dump, launch of Aave App, MiCAR authorisation from the Central Bank of Ireland, Aave v4 upgrade, etc.
Yet, the price of $AAVE has barely budged today.
WHY? ๐ง
Well, the main issue seems to be an ongoing dispute between Aave DAO (community) and Aave Labs (development entity).
The dispute comes after Aave DAO member EzR3aL revealed swap fees (15-25 basis points) from the projectโs recent CoW Swap integration were being redirected to Aave Labs-controlled addresses instead of the DAO treasury.
Some estimates claim this diverts $200K weekly or $10M annually on mainnet alone. ๐ฐ
While the community claims this is against token holder interests, Labs argues the monetisation of non-protocol products is within acceptable bounds. The dispute has now escalated into a broader fight over governance power, IP ownership, and decentralisation.
The outcome of this dispute will significantly impact the future of $AAVE and the underlying protocol.
Here are the core arguments from both sides.
๐ด DAOโs Core Arguments and Demands
1๏ธโฃ Protocol Integration = DAO Revenue
The DAO argues that CoW Swap adapters are official protocol integrations across multiple chains. Users interacting via app.aave.com are using Aave protocol infrastructure, so revenue should accrue to the DAO that governs and secures it.
2๏ธโฃ โStealth Privatisationโ
Marc Zeller (founder of Aave Chan Initiative) characterised the situation as "stealth privatisationโ and a breach of fiduciary duty to AAVE token holders. He noted that Labs leverages the protocol's multi-billion dollar TVL and 120K+ user base to generate swap volume. If protocol usage doesnโt benefit the DAO, AAVE token value becomes detached from protocol success.
3๏ธโฃ IP And Brand Control
Proposals have emerged demanding DAO ownership of the Aave brand, domains, and IP. Without this, critics argue Labs could redirect value, fork products, or limit DAO authority indefinitely.
4๏ธโฃ Governance Sovereignty
The DAO argues Labs is a service provider (not the protocol owner) and must operate under DAO-defined compensation and revenue rules.
๐ต Aave Labsโ Core Arguments and Demands
1๏ธโฃ Product Layer vs Protocol Layer
Labs says the DAO governs smart contracts and liquidity, not user interfaces or product features. The CoW Swap integration is a product-layer enhancement, self-funded by Labs, similar to how Uniswap Labs monetises its interface.
2๏ธโฃ Self-Funded Development Needs Revenue
Labs paid for development, maintenance, audits, and infrastructure. Without product revenue, sustained innovation becomes impossible.
3๏ธโฃ IP Ownership Is Legally Established
Labs owns trademarks, domains, and repositories. Centralised IP control allows faster execution, legal defense, and regulatory navigation.
4๏ธโฃ Regulatory Pressure Matters
After years of regulatory scrutiny (SEC), Labs argues independent revenue and legal flexibility are necessary buffers, and a clear separation from DAO finances reduces risk.
โโโ
โผ๏ธ Bottom Line: Whatever Aave decides will likely set a precedent for DAOโbuilder relationships across DeFi.
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โผ๏ธ NEW CRYPTO FRAUD BILL COMING!
๐บ๐ธU.S. Senators just introduced a bipartisan bill called the SAFE Act to fight crypto scams.
It would create a task force with Treasury, FBI and regulators to identify, track, and stop crypto fraud.
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โก๏ธ BITCOIN LIGHTNING NETWORK HITS NEW RECORD!
The Lightning Network capacity just reached 5,637 BTC, its HIGHEST ever.
This comes as more Bitcoin was added to the network, enabling faster and cheaper transactions.
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