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Hi Everyone,
Only those who survive bad days can enjoy the good ones! 💪
Our market will soon see better days as several initiatives are being taken to lift the economy from a downcycle to an upcycle.
Recent Initiative:
📌 RBI has infused ₹41 lakh crore into the banking system. This money will eventually flow into the economy, boosting GDP and corporate earnings.
So, don’t lose hope! Hold your good stocks tight—better days are coming! 🚀📈
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🇮🇳🇺🇸 India-US Tariff Talks: No big announcements till
📌 Trump called Indian tariffs a “big problem” but acknowledged Modi’s efforts to reduce them.
📌 US plans to bridge its trade deficit by increasing oil & gas sales to India.
📌 Sectors with high expectations, like Pharma, might see setbacks if no major tariff relief comes.
📌 Auto sector could be impacted as Trump specifically mentioned 70% tariffs on US cars—potential reductions may open doors for US automakers.
No major shocks, but some sectors may see sentiment shifts like pharma,auto, and defense.
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Modi-Trump Talks: Key Announcements
Trade Target : India-US trade to reach $500B by 2030; Modi pitched "MIGA" (Make India Great Again).
Defense : US to sell F-35 jets to India, boosting military ties.
26/11 Case : US approved Tahawwur Rana’s extradition to India.
Nuclear Energy : Expansion of civil nuclear cooperation.
Visa Policy : Talks on easing US visa rules for Indians.
Investment : US firms to increase manufacturing in India.
Tech & AI : Strengthened ties in AI, cybersecurity, and digital trade.
Healthcare : Collaboration in pharma, medical research, and pandemic response.
Climate & Energy : Joint efforts on clean energy and carbon reduction.
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Trump-Modi Meet: A Turning Point for Indian Markets?
PM Modi meets President Trump in Washington today!
While there will be warm handshakes and strategic discussions, the real focus will be on trade, tariffs, and visas.
🔹 Tariffs: India has already lowered some tariffs, but Trump might push for more.
🔹 Visas: H-1B visa policies could see key discussions.
🔹 Trade Deals: A new economic partnership? Modi might propose one.
🔹 Tesla in India? Modi may meet Elon Musk to discuss an Indian factory!
The outcome of the meeting is very important for our markets.
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What Are Growth Traps?
- Growth traps are the opposite of value traps.
- These stocks trade at very high P/E ratios (100-150x) because of strong growth expectations.
- To stay at these high levels, they must keep growing 50-100% every quarter, which becomes impossible after a point.
- The moment growth slows down, the stock crashes 40-50%.
- Examples: Trent, Kaynes, E2E, and more.
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Stock up 100% with no earnings growth? Welcome to the bull market! 🐂
Now flip the coin – 100% earnings growth, but the stock barely moves – it’s a downtrend. 😬
Sentiment > Valuation! – It’s the stock market!
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Lamborghini was once a tractor company 🚜
Reliance started out as a textile business 👚
LG began as a facial cream brand 💅
Samsung? A grocery store 🛍
Lesson, your current situation doesn’t define your future. Pivot when needed! 🔄
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Why Forward P/E Matters More Than P/E
Investing based only on *P/E ratio* is like checking last season’s scoreboard to predict the next match—you’re looking at past performance, not future potential.
Smart investors focus on *Forward P/E* because stock prices move on *expected earnings growth*, not outdated numbers.
How to get real insights?
✅ *Concalls* – Direct clues from management on future plans.
✅ *Peer tracking* – Compare with competitors to spot industry trends.
Markets don’t reward the past, they price in the future
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5 Reasons for Market Decline 📉
1️⃣ Tariff War Impact – US imposed tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada. Retaliation + WTO case = Global market dip.
2️⃣ Capex Stocks Crash – Budget infra capex barely increased, hitting infra, railway, defense, power & cement stocks.
3️⃣ Rupee Hits Record Low – Fell to ₹87.28 as a strong dollar (109.5 index) raised FII selling fears.
4️⃣ FII Selling Continues – ₹1,327 Cr sold on Budget Day; ₹87,374 Cr outflow in Jan alone.
5️⃣ Weak Q3 Earnings – Margin pressure due to high raw material costs = No market support.
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Will there be TAX CUTS in tomorrow’s Budget?💰🤔
Vote now!Anonymous voting
- YES – FM will care for the middle class ❤️
- NO – FM’s track record says don’t hope 😭
- CAN’T SAY – Freebies need funding! 💸
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Indian Budget 2025: Key Sectors in Focus
Consumer Sector:
-Tax relief (unlikely) may boost demand in autos, retail, and consumer durables. Rural-focused schemes like MSP increases and higher MGNREGA funds could benefit FMCG.
Agriculture
-₹1.52 Lakh Crore for irrigation, PM-KISAN, and digital reforms.
✅ Rural/urban demand measures could lead to growth in FMCG, autos, tractor, and retail sectors.
❌ Focus on freebies without real demand triggers could keep consumer demand sluggish.
Infrastructure:
₹2.55 Lakh Crore for railways, ₹2.78 Lakh Crore for roads and smart cities.
✅ Strong capex allocation benefits cement, steel, and rail companies.
❌ PSUs and EPC companies may struggle if capex growth is below 10%.
Defense & Space:
₹6.2 Lakh Crore for military tech and space startups.
✅ Growth in defense comp5 with increased funding.
Healthcare:
Focus on TB elimination, rural telemedicine, and pharma R&D.
✅ Higher allocations for Ayushman Bharat will benefit hospital chains and diagnostics.
R&D tax breaks could boost pharma innovation.
❌ Drug price controls may affect generic pharma companies.
Green Energy:
EV tax breaks, incentives and push for solar and wind energy.
❌ Fiscal constraints may slow sector growth.
Manufacturing & MSMEs:
PLI expansion, easier credit, and compliance reforms.
❌ Limited credit and compliance effectiveness could limit growth.
Education & Skilling:
Training 20 Lakh youth in AI, ML, and data science.
✅ Growth in tech and education sectors.
AI & Digital:
Expansion of 5G, AI hub, and UPI incentives.
✅ Digital infrastructure boosts tech companies.
Real Estate:
PM Awas Yojana 2.0 for 1 Crore urban families.
✅ Real estate demand increases in affordable housing.
Tourism & Jobs:
✅ New tourism zones and labor law reforms.
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📢 Important Announcement 📢
If you've registered for the webinar, please reach out to our WhatsApp Chat Support at +91 97393 85706 to get your joining details.
🔹 Elliott Wave Theory Webinar: https://aceink.com/elliott-wave-webinar/
🔹 Red Flags in Stock Picking Webinar: https://rzp.io/rzp/bR1TR3r
Make sure to message us on WhatsApp support to receive the webinar access! 🚀
WhatsApp support : https://wa.me/919739385706
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Suppose, You invested Rs. 15 lakh in March 2021. By February 2024, it had grown to Rs. 60 lakh.
But in the last 1 year, from March 2024 to January 2025, the market corrected, and the value dropped to Rs. 45 lakh.
Here’s the interesting part: Even with the drop in the last year, your average return over the past 4 years still comes out to 30% CAGR, which is still better than many other investments.
The takeaway :
After a bull run, markets often correct themselves, and it can feel like the returns vanish. Long-term growth, measured by CAGR, shows that steady growth over time can still lead to impressive returns.
Stock market returns can be solid even when there are quite periods. Patience is the key, and consistency pays off.
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"Identifying potential multibaggers is easy; the real challenge is holding them through volatility."
– Words of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
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Why Is the Market Falling Today?
Hi Everyone,
Today, the stock market is down due to tensions between the US and Colombia. Here’s what’s happening:
1️⃣ *US Tariffs on Colombia*:
Yesterday, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Colombian imports like coffee and oil, warning it could rise to 50%. This disrupts trade and impacts businesses.
2️⃣ *Colombia Hits Back*:
Colombia responded with a 25% tax on US goods, creating fears of higher costs and strained trade relations.
3️⃣ *Global Worries*:
Investors worry this trade conflict could spread, shaking confidence in emerging markets.
4️⃣ *Flight Restrictions*:
Tensions rose further as Colombia banned US military planes and limited deportation flights, adding to the uncertainty.
This situation teaches us how the political issues can have a direct impact on markets. Let’s watch how things develop!
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The Magic of Compounding: Rs.1000 Can Become Crores!
Compounding is like planting a money tree—your money grows on itself over time.
Here’s how Rs.1000 grows at different annual returns:
10%: Rs.17,449 in 30 years.
15%: Rs.66,212 in 30 years.
20%: Rs.2,37,376 in 30 years.
25%: Rs.8,07,794 in 30 years.
30%: Rs.26,19,956 in 30 years.
40%: Rs.2.42 crores in 30 years!
Lesson : Start early, stay invested, and let compounding do it's wonder!
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Markets React Cautiously Before Budget 2025-26
The stock market is approaching the Union Budget with low expectations. Gains made during PM Narendra Modi’s third term have been wiped out, with Sensex and Nifty falling back to levels seen before June 9, 2024, when he started his third tenure. Earlier, these indices had risen by up to 12%.
Market Performance Since June 2024
Nifty 50: Down 0.6%
Sensex: Down 0.4%
Nifty Midcap 100: Down 0.2%
Nifty Smallcap 100: Down 1.7%
From all-time highs, the declines are sharper :
Nifty 50: -11.7%
Sensex: -11%
Nifty Midcap 100: -12.6%
Nifty Smallcap 100: -12.7%
The Nifty 50, which peaked at 23,290.2, is now at 23,155.4.
Challenges for the Government
Analysts expect that the government has limited room for big economic measures in this Budget due to lower GST and corporate tax revenues.
Sector Performance
Top Sectors (Since June 2024):
IT: +21.1%
Pharma: +12.5%
Financial Services: +2.2%
Worst Sectors (Since June 2024):
Realty: -19.1%
Energy: -16.1%
Media: -15.6%
From all-time highs, IT and pharma have fallen less (-7.4%), while Realty (-24.8%) and Media (-23.6%) are the biggest losers.
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Economic Problems are increasing – Time for Relief!
- FIIs are continuously selling
- The rupee is at an all-time low
- GDP growth is slow
- People are stressed due to high taxes
- Q3 numbers are shrinking, adding more pressure
Remember – Higher Taxes = Higher Tax Evasion.
It’s high time to provide relief to the economy!
Why a 1% CRR cut is essential:
✔️ It’ll resolve liquidity issues.
✔️ It’ll push interest rates down.
✔️ It’ll help boost economic growth.
• After that, RBI must ease some lending norms and reduce risk weightages.
• Fiscal support is needed, but we can’t expect much from that side in the short term.
📉 What do you think should be done next?
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