Crypto soothsayer

🥷 Hackers vs Investors: the harsh crypto reality 📊 The data paints a clear picture: hackers are far more consistent than investors and continue to drain money from the market as long as capital keeps flowing in. 🛍 Stolen funds vs total investments: • 2021 — 8% • 2022 — 10% • 2023 — 25% • 2024 — 20% • 2025 — 10% Despite growing infrastructure and regulations, crypto still resembles the Wild West. Scammers are often hard to track down, and in most cases, there’s simply no one to claim compensation from. 👀

📉 Top altcoins: 2025 recap Not exactly a year to celebrate for most altcoins. 👉 A real “altseason” happened only for: • Zcash: +613% • Monero: +125% Everything else disappointed. Even Dogecoin, once hyped by Elon Musk, ended the year down –61% 😭 The takeaway: in 2025, privacy coins outperformed, while the majority of top alts failed to deliver any meaningful gains.

📉 Bitcoin fell short of big players’ forecasts Wu Blockchain reviewed major Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 and compared them with reality. After the 2024 halving, the launch of US crypto ETFs, and rising institutional interest, many large firms expected a powerful rally, modeling BTC in the $200k–$250k range. 🚀 In practice, Bitcoin hit its all-time high in early October at $126k, then corrected by around 30%, never reaching the projected targets. 🤷 Key expectations vs reality: • KuCoin Research: up to $250k on ETF and institutional demand • Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine): $250k target • Matrixport: $160k, calling 2025 a breakout year • Bitwise: new ATH above $200k • VanEck: peak near $180k, then correction • Galaxy Research: $150k–$185k by year end None of these scenarios fully played out, highlighting once again how difficult long-term BTC forecasting remains — even for the biggest institutions.

😒 Crypto loses the race in 2025 So far, traditional assets are clearly outperforming crypto this year. Annual returns: • Silver: +130% • Gold: +65% • Copper: +35% • Nasdaq: +20% • S&P 500: +16% • Russell 2000: +13% Meanwhile, crypto is lagging: • BTC: -6% • ETH: -12% • Altcoins: -42% In 2025, capital has flowed back into commodities and equities, while the crypto market struggles with drawdowns and weak risk appetite. A clear reminder that crypto doesn’t always win every cycle. 🤷

🔎 2025 TGE reality check Most token launches in 2025 have turned out to be disappointing. According to recent data, 100 out of 118 TGEs (84.7%) are now trading below their initial valuations. 🧐 The main reasons cited by analysts are familiar: overinflated valuations at launch and a lack of real token utility. In many cases, hype faded quickly once early incentives ended, leaving little organic demand. 🤷 The takeaway is clear: the market is becoming less forgiving. Strong fundamentals and real use cases matter more than ever, while “launch first, figure it out later” tokenomics are no longer working. 🍔

📈 Bitcoin may end the year in the red 👀 Bitcoin is likely to close this year with a negative return. At the same time, it’s important to remember that BTC has never had two losing years in a row. 🤔 On the other hand, this was also a year of a new all-time high, and historically, years after ATH are often followed by deep corrections. 📉 How it plays out this time remains uncertain — many analysts are now discussing the idea of a broken 4-year cycle and a changing market structure. 😳

🥷 One of the darkest chapters in early Bitcoin history In June 2011, a Bitcointalk user known as Allinvain lost 25,000 BTC in a single transaction — worth about $500,000 at the time and over $2.2 billion today. 🙀 What happened: ▪️On June 13, 2011, 25,000 BTC were drained from his wallet in one move and never returned ▪️The coins were sent to a single address and later split and laundered ▪️The attack started with a compromised Slush Pool account, where payouts were redirected due to no 2FA ▪️The critical mistake: an unencrypted wallet.dat stored on a Windows PC with software from unknown sources ▪️Private keys were copied, and the funds were gone within seconds Outcome: ▪️A total of 25,033 BTC were eventually dispersed ▪️Only 0.004 BTC remained on the original address ▪️The attacker was never identified A brutal reminder of how unforgiving early Bitcoin security mistakes were.

From “Bitcoin is dead” to the biggest holder 👀 Exactly 12 years ago, Michael Saylor tweeted that Bitcoin’s “days are numbered,” effectively declaring it dead. ☠️ Fast forward to today — the company he leads, Strategy, now holds 671,268 BTC, making it the largest public Bitcoin holder in the world. 💰 A perfect reminder of how time, conviction, and a change of perspective can completely rewrite history in crypto.📝

🐃 CryptoQuant: Bitcoin signals recovery According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is exiting a zone of strong oversold conditions and may be entering a recovery phase, based on the NVT Golden Cross indicator. 📊 Historically, this metric has signaled periods when selling pressure fades and market valuation begins to normalize, often preceding price stabilization or renewed upside momentum. While it doesn’t guarantee an immediate rally, the signal suggests that the recent correction may be losing strength and the market could be shifting back toward accumulation mode. 💰

😮‍💨 Bank of Japan raises rates — but carefully 🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan has raised its key interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. However, there’s no shock to the system this time. BOJ Governor emphasized a gradual and cautious approach to further monetary tightening and promised clear communication before any future moves. As a result, the carry trade remains stable, and markets avoided the chaos many feared. 💪 Bottom line: Japan did it as gently as possible — the expected collapse is postponed, for now 😇

🧐 What stopped Bitcoin at the latest ATH? Some traders believe Bitcoin faced unexpected resistance not in dollars, but at 100,000 Swiss francs (CHF) — one of the strongest fiat currencies in the world. 👀 The theory suggests that psychological levels in “hard” currencies may influence market behavior just like round numbers in USD. While it sounds intriguing, it’s more of a fun coincidence than a solid technical reason 😳 Interesting narrative — but likely not the real driver behind BTC’s pullback.

Bitcoin made another push upward, briefly breaking above $89,000 📈 However, the move didn’t last long — the price quickly pulled back to around $88,000. 🤷

💸 Bitcoin ETFs see strongest inflows in a month Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow since November 11, pulling in over $450 million in a single day. This marks the biggest one-day net inflow over the past month. 🔥 The surge may signal that institutional investors are regaining confidence and starting to position for a potential continuation of the uptrend. 📈 After a period of cooling demand, ETF flows once again suggest renewed interest from large capital.

🔮 Prediction markets as the new macro signal Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly acting as leading indicators for macroeconomic data. By continuously pricing market expectations, they often react faster than traditional models used by the Fed. 📊 According to Keyrock, Polymarket forecasts reach 90–95% accuracy, and by the Brier score, prediction markets significantly outperform traditional weather forecasts and sports betting models. 🧐 Hedge funds are already tapping into these platforms as a source of real-time market consensus and early signals of upcoming macro shifts — turning collective intelligence into a powerful analytical tool. 🔎💵

📊 Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle: broken or just ignored? While many analysts are declaring that Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle is “dead,” price behavior suggests the opposite. 🧐 So far, BTC continues to move remarkably close to its historical cycle pattern, despite changing narratives, ETFs, and growing institutional participation. 😥

😳 Is Japan pressuring Bitcoin? According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan is considering raising its key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which would mark the highest level in nearly 30 years. 🏦🇯🇵 At first glance, this seems unrelated to crypto — but history tells a different story. Previous BoJ rate hikes have coincided with sharp Bitcoin pullbacks: ▪️ March 2024: BTC −23% ▪️ July 2024: BTC −26.5% ▪️ January 2025: BTC −32% 📅 The rate decision is expected tomorrow, and the market may already be pricing in the potential tightening. If the hike is confirmed, it could increase pressure on risk assets, including crypto. The key question now is whether this move is fully priced in — or if another volatility wave is ahead. 😳

🧠 Michael Saylor doubles down on the $1M Bitcoin thesis Michael Saylor has reiterated his long-term conviction that $1 million per BTC is inevitable, arguing that Bitcoin will continue to outperform gold over the coming decades. 🚀 According to Saylor, BTC’s fixed supply, growing institutional adoption, and role as a digital store of value position it as a superior monetary asset. In his projection, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization could eventually reach $200 trillion, compared to under $2 trillion today. 🙄

📈 Bitcoin spikes to $90K — then reality hits 🚀Bitcoin jumped sharply to $90,000 at the opening of the US trading session, gaining around 3% in under an hour. However, the rally was short-lived, and the price quickly reversed, wiping out the entire move just as fast. 👀 🔪 According to Coinglass, about $343 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 4 hours. Roughly $152M came from shorts, but the subsequent pullback crushed long positions as well, liquidating nearly the same amount — around $192M. A classic volatility trap: first shorts, then longs. 📊

🎅 Q4 reality check — no Santa rally this time Eric Trump wasn’t exaggerating when he spoke in September about an “incredible” fourth quarter — just not in the way many expected 😁 Markets are moving with such confidence to the downside that even a classic Santa Rally can’t save this quarter. So far, Q4 is shaping up to be the second-weakest on record, down around -23%, second only to 2018’s brutal -42%. 📉

🚪 VanEck’s crypto outlook for 2026 — just one word VanEck has released its annual “10 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026,” but this time the report contains only one word: “Good luck!” 👀 In essence, the major investment manager chose not to publish any forecasts at all. 🤷 Sometimes, no forecast is the best forecast.